Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[MJO812]

Flakes starting here in Brooklyn

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Should be snowing in Staten Island and by me soon if radar is correct 

Starting here in Brooklyn 

[jdpack]

9 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

1-2? Maybe in an hour 

Im as big of snow weenie as anyone. But this has bust city written all over it. That warm nose will destroy dreams.

[liwxfan]

1 minute ago, jdpack said:

Im as big of snow weenie as anyone. But this has bust city written all over it. That warm nose will destroy dreams.

If you’re worried about a warm nose just step out side for a few mins.

[SnowGoose69]

As of 19Z 3km NAM continues to be a tad fast and HRRR way too slow with change.  BWI should be going SNPL though by 1930Z so about 30-40 minutes behind the 3km NAM

[Eduardo]

1 minute ago, liwxfan said:

If you’re worried about a warm nose just step out side for a few mins.

And jump...very high!

[nianticct]

Back to snow in DC

[jdpack]

1 minute ago, liwxfan said:

If you’re worried about a warm nose just step out side for a few mins.

Warm nose has nothing to do with surface temps.

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

As of 19Z 3km NAM continues to be a tad fast and HRRR way too slow with change.  BWI should be going SNPL though by 1930Z so about 30-40 minutes behind the 3km NAM

so for about every hour late that could mean 1-2" give or take in most locales.  Correct?

[allgame830]

Just now, jdpack said:

Warm nose has nothing to do with surface temps.

your right it doesn't but your literally the only one on here saying this.... @SnowGoose69 said right above even the NAM is running 30-40 to fast with the change to sleet.

[sussexcountyobs]

4 minutes ago, jdpack said:

Im as big of snow weenie as anyone. But this has bust city written all over it. That warm nose will destroy dreams.

Just heard 1010 WINS meteorologist live on radio. He expects around 12" for Manhattan. 

6-12" for Brooklyn and Queens and

1 - 2 feet north and west.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, jdpack said:

Warm nose has nothing to do with surface temps.

Who knows if the Nam is right.

Every other model has it snowing hard before a possible changeover.

[EastonSN+]

DC flips back and forth with snow as the precip intensity changes. Saw on TWC.

[Rtd208]

Light snow has begun here. Temp 32/DP 22

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Who knows if the Nam is right.

Every other model has it snowing hard before a possible changeover.

I believe you have an arrest to make. The crime is attempted theft of snow.

On a more serious note, light snow has now been reported even in parts of Manhattan.

[MJO812]

Light to moderate snow now in Brooklyn.

[jdpack]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Who knows if the Nam is right.

Every other model has it snowing hard before a possible changeover.

Those models dont take into account sleet mixing in. If (more like, when) the sleet mixes in, that 10:1 ratio goes POOF and the totals go with it.

[SnowGoose69]

FZRAPL at BWI.  HRDPS/RGEM/3km NAM all about right.  extrapolating the NAM was 30 mins too fast.   the HRRR has no clue

[EastonSN+]

On TWC they said reports from DC are 1 to 3 inches before they changed. Not sure what parts of DC. They had intense band before changing. 

[wdrag]

Am monitoring a  bit now. No further comment on modeling til NWS adjusts whatever they believe they need to.  I think what you're all doing, tracking 3K NAM vs HRRR is probably the most important on short range performance.

 

[NJwx85]

5.9” per hour

 

[wdrag]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Who knows if the Nam is right.

Every other model has it snowing hard before a possible changeover.

It will!

[jm1220]

50 minutes ago, liwxfan said:

Fellow north shore Suffolk peeps out there..how you feeling? This should be pretty interesting for us..excited to see how it unfolds here in Miller place

Snow comes in like gangbusters and accumulates 1-2”/hr for several hours, then we see where the dryslot and mild level warm air gets. That plus what back end snow there is determines whether we get 6-8” or the 12” officially predicted here. I’m leaning toward the 6-8” for now but a delayed warmup aloft and decent burst of snow to end it could mean it really works out. 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

On TWC they said reports from DC are 1 to 3 inches before they changed. Not sure what parts of DC. They had intense band before changing. 

IAD had reported 2.1" so far. Adams Morgan 1 ESE in Washington, DC reported 1.0". Reagan National Airport had reported a trace.

[SnowGoose69]

I've heard of that maybe 2 times before in a synoptic snow storm.  Usually 4-5 is about the most you can get

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

It will!

Not as fast at it shows . We should get a good thump before that.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

IAD had reported 2.1" so far. Adams Morgan 1 ESE in Washington, DC reported 1.0". Reagan National Airport had reported a trace.

Thanks. This to me shows how even if we mix we can get some pretty impressive snow totals beforehand. Maybe similar to March 2017?

[wizard021]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

5.9” per hour

 

Told you all  DO NOT doubt the WIZARD.

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Not as fast at it shows . We should get a good thump before that.

It will .. meant it will snow hard.

[wizard021]

4 minutes ago, ChickenMan888 said:

Is that even legal? lmao

I had 6 inches an hour in the 2006 storm. Yes it is.