Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[MJO812]

Still snowing good in the city at 4z

Then we watch the pivot take place

[nycsnow]

Already 6+ for many before any dry slot comes in

[Jt17]

2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Its hard to take you seriously with the "super weenie" title. We all know what you want to happen. Need to look at actual observations at this point and see what is going on with HRRR

I find it encouraging that it is keeping the LP right on the coast of the CH Bay at 0Z tonight as opposed to 25 miles inland, but we shall see......

 

Take it easy man - without MJO812 half of the useful content would disappear from this forum. 

[nycsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

We’re not as interested in the surface low track in this case as the mid level lows. Notice the sleet expanded inland into PA? That could be due to more aggressive mid level warming. 

Nyc east surprisingly holding on pretty long before dry slot comes in

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Take it easy man - without MJO812 half of the useful content would disappear from this forum. 

Thanks man but its all good. Weather makes people frustrated =)

[MJO812]

Before the lull comes in and then more snow on the backend.

[SnoSki14]

People should temper their expectations because there's significant bust potential.

If the immediate NYC metro scores 6" consider that a huge win. 

[nycsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

People should temper their expectations because there's significant bust potential.

If the immediate NYC metro scores 6" consider that a huge win. 

Crazy how this trended from 15+ to maybe single digits since Sunday lol

[mikem81]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thanks man but its all good. Weather makes people frustrated =)

I tease in a good way. Trust me, I am on Western Long Island and want all snow, but.....

[dWave]

ABC changed their predictions, more bullish like NWS for in and around NYC. 12"-18" cutting through the middle of NYC including Manhattan, Western Qns, Bronx (tad less perhaps right on the Sound) 6"-12" SI, BK, most of Queens and then down from there.

[Barman49]

Anyone have an idea why the LP on the HRRR doesn't really move from 02z to 07z??  Just sits near Cape May.

[friedmators]

Watching CNN and its snowing at the White House

[nycsnow]

Hrrr gives many 6-10 before any dry slot or change over waiting to see if backend feature there again

[mikem81]

We want the Low to basically stop south of Cape May and then occlude/weaken which would force everything east instead of north. 

 

[EastonSN+]

For what it's worth, hrrr is unreliable past hour 10.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

People should temper their expectations because there's significant bust potential.

If the immediate NYC metro scores 6" consider that a huge win. 

There is a bust potential either way

[SnowGoose69]

DCA already SNPL...12Z HRRR was not within the same zipcode by 17Z with the mix.  12Z 3km NAM had it almost there by 17

[nycsnow]

Hrrr changes nyc back to snow 2am

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Hrrr gives many 6-10 before any dry slot or change over waiting to see if backend feature there again

Got colder

[nycsnow]

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Hrrr changes nyc back to snow 2am

Barely any sleet

Interesting 

The high means business

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

I tease in a good way. Trust me, I am on Western Long Island and want all snow, but.....

You know my pain then lol

[friedmators]

H7 is closed on the HRRR pretty north of the Euro depiction.  That won't bode well.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

 

If you compare the HRRR runs , its getting  colder. 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Hrrr gives many 6-10 before any dry slot or change over waiting to see if backend feature there again

The backend is my biggest question mark. If it's as intense as the gfs shows then it could drop several inches in 2-3 hours. 

[SnowGoose69]

WRI/NEL are already snowing in NJ but its a fluke band of snow (almost looks ocean effect but its not)

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, friedmators said:

H7 is closed on the HRRR pretty north of the Euro depiction.  That won't bode well.

Majority of snow falls before a quick hit of sleet on the coast.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Barely any sleet

Interesting 

The high means business

The high doesn’t mean much for how far the sleet advances. Those are mid level lows which determine that. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The high doesn’t mean much for how far the sleet advances. Those are mid level lows which determine that. 

Its going to be borderline  for our area. Have to watch the radar carefully later.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The high doesn’t mean much for how far the sleet advances. Those are mid level lows which determine that. 

That's why people need to temper expectations.

We've seen how sleet advances well before it's supposed to time and time again. 

Another danger will be the winds later on. Several inches of snow + sleet accumulations + 40-50mph+ winds will lead to outages.