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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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TheManWithNoFace

TheManWithNoFace

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, wxman said:

Love, you Walt, and your a pros pro, of course.....but "To me one bad sign... too much sun 6-8 hrs before an event starts.   The classics have a long slow process of thickening and lowering cigs."  I mean, really?  That sounds like something I might say, LOL.  In any event, clouds are lowering and thickening here.  Best of luck to all!

I'd take Drags anecdotes over Bernie Rayo using a low sfc dewpoint as reasoning as to why it won't change to sleet in NYC. 

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Rjay said:

@MJO812/@LibertyBell/Me 5-10"

@psv88/@jm1220 /@uofmiami  8-14"

@Allsnow/@Stormlover74 /@forkyfork 8-14"

@BxEngine/@snowman19 10-16"

@Animal 14-20"

@snywx and crew 14-20"

@Tatamy 18-24"

@Juliancolton 18-24"

 

Bust zone is NENJ, NYC and LI

Excellent call.. I think jp will be in the 24-30" range and prob somewhere in NEPA.

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crossbowftw3

crossbowftw3

Posted
Posted

Got the classic snow feel out there in the Catskills. Still swinging for 12-18 but probably upper bound for that. Ratios still look quite good. Only concern is that dews have dropped to below 10 up here and that snow may not start until after sunset. Otherwise good to go.

someone >1500’ probably gets >2’ and maybe close to 30”, probably Hunter 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Impossible to really predict at this time but I’d say maybe a few inches on the backend  for NYC/LI. The main show will be the front end, the backend is more of a wild card. 

It all depends on where the low ends up.  The more east the better for our area.

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Got the classic snow feel out there in the Catskills. Still swinging for 12-18 but probably upper bound for that. Ratios still look quite good. Only concern is that dews have dropped to below 10 up here and that snow may not start until after sunset. Otherwise good to go.

someone >1500’ probably gets >2’ and maybe close to 30”, probably Hunter 

You are in eldred right?

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said:

Dew points this morning were impressive: 2 degrees in Central Park, 6 degrees at JFK. As Bernie Rayno pointed out, this suggests that there will be less mixing in the city.

Might mean no rain but it doesn’t say much if anything about sleet. That’s determined by mid level temps and conditions not surface.

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weathermedic

weathermedic

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, wdrag said:

 

No time to rereview...  I see 0z/6 EC likes a colder scenario near I95.  Could happen. The se edge still has to have sleet convert to snow which is incorrect but NYC and I95... I'm uncertain and I dont have all the tools NWS does.  Please follow NWS. Appended 06z/16 EC 10 to 1.  It says I'm a bit too far nw on my NYS expectations. Use your judgement.  Thanks... offline til at least 930A.  You'll know by then whether 12z 3K NAM has trended colder nr NYC.  To me one bad sign... too much sun 6-8 hrs before an event starts.   The classics have a long slow process of thickening and lowering cigs.  This tells me an 8 hour front end thump down here then maybe sleet starts I80 LI midnight-2a.  Have fun with this. Walt 744A

Screen Shot 2020-12-16 at 7.39.23 AM.png

Sun already disappeared (at least for now) behind the clouds here in lower Manhattan. Hopefully temps won't rise too  much from the morning lows.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weathermedic said:

Sun already disappeared (at least for now) behind the clouds here in lower Manhattan. Hopefully temps won't rise too  much from the morning lows.

The wet bulb temps are the only thing that matters. 

In this case the surface temps could be 35-37 and they'd drop to 28-30F when the snow starts. 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Sun already disappeared (at least for now) behind the clouds here in lower Manhattan. Hopefully temps won't rise too  much from the morning lows.

None of that really matters-even if it did the storm is at night.   Dews are so low that once precip starts temps will crash.....

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The latest NAM soundings didn't look horrible to me. I checked near JFK at 3z tonight and looks like all layers are solidly below freezing albeit not the best ratios since the best lift is below where dendrites grow (-12 to -18C). And it's showing about 0.8" liquid there by then and snow is coming down like crazy with the dryslot coming north through NJ up to about Trenton then. 

By 6z the dryslot is in with spotty precip and we have the warm layer at 750mb again from the city east, but according to this run most of the heavy steady precip before then will be snow. The precip on the back end starts as sleet for the same area but transitions back to snow-however like always who knows how much of that is real. 

The mid level low tracks still aren't great. 700 low looks to go a little north of the city and 850 low a little south. That will mean warm mid level air definitely makes a surge into the area. Just have to hope it coincides with the spotty precip/dryslot. 

You know what this kind of reminds me of?  Two storms....we had a storm in Dec 1995 at the start of the cold pattern that had 7" at JFK 8" at NYC and 14" at LGA....lingering backend snows after it changed back over from rain to snow and that caused a plain to slide off the runway.

The other one was Jan 26 2011 without the amazing back end that storm had, but also had a dry slot and then a changeover from sleet to snow.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There's all types of nor'easters that can produce heavy snow or rain in this area. The only real definition of it is it produces strong northeast winds lol. The classic snowmaking ones here track off the coast and have the strong cold high in place. There are others that hug the coast or have a warm airmass in place. 

The Miller Cs which are supposed to be the most rare.  I think PD2 was that

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Kind of 3 parts looking likely for N/C-NJ and NYC/NE-NJ

Snow arrives between 3 and 5 PM - midnight : 3 - 5 inches

Mix with sleet between 10PM and 3/4AM : 1 - 3 inches pending on sleet duration and mix

4Am - 11AM : back to snow and perhaps best part of the storm wind whipped powedery snow: 3 - 5 inches (local spots could get more under good banding)

 

7 - 13 inches (EWR/NYC)

 

7 

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Nam looks noticeably warmer with 850s at the onset of the storm. Hopefully just a fluke. 

Heavier precip will be snow, lighter will be more sleety.

It's going to be really close for fringe areas. Those spots are just as likely to see 6" as they are to see 12"+. 

Backside snows are a wildcard.

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