Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I really wish I was in my other home for this.....it's south of I-80 and just north of Allentown (halfway between ABE and MPO actually) but at 2,000 ft elevation it should stay all snow and get around 2 feet shouldn't it?

 

 

47 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

21F. When was the last time it was this cold/dry with precip moving in? 

No time to rereview...  I see 0z/6 EC likes a colder scenario near I95.  Could happen. The se edge still has to have sleet convert to snow which is incorrect but NYC and I95... I'm uncertain and I dont have all the tools NWS does.  Please follow NWS. Appended 06z/16 EC 10 to 1.  It says I'm a bit too far nw on my NYS expectations. Use your judgement.  Thanks... offline til at least 930A.  You'll know by then whether 12z 3K NAM has trended colder nr NYC.  To me one bad sign... too much sun 6-8 hrs before an event starts.   The classics have a long slow process of thickening and lowering cigs.  This tells me an 8 hour front end thump down here then maybe sleet starts I80 LI midnight-2a.  Have fun with this. Walt 744A

[Snowlover11]

man talk about living on the ledge, it’s definitely cold this morning, hopefully we can all stay snow and pile up!

[wxman]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

 

No time to rereview...  I see 0z/6 EC likes a colder scenario near I95.  Could happen. The se edge still has to have sleet convert to snow which is incorrect but NYC and I95... I'm uncertain and I dont have all the tools NWS does.  Please follow NWS. Appended 06z/16 EC 10 to 1.  It says I'm a bit too far nw on my NYS expectations. Use your judgement.  Thanks... offline til at least 930A.  You'll know by then whether 12z 3K NAM has trended colder nr NYC.  To me one bad sign... too much sun 6-8 hrs before an event starts.   The classics have a long slow process of thickening and lowering cigs.  This tells me an 8 hour front end thump down here then maybe sleet starts I80 LI midnight-2a.  Have fun with this. Walt 744A

Love, you Walt, and your a pros pro, of course.....but "To me one bad sign... too much sun 6-8 hrs before an event starts.   The classics have a long slow process of thickening and lowering cigs."  I mean, really?  That sounds like something I might say, LOL.  In any event, clouds are lowering and thickening here.  Best of luck to all!

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wall of snow

Good call

Lets hope the low stays more east and we get alot more than that .

Probably 1-2” per hour this evening under the best banding.

[Allsnow]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Areas further west back toward NYC may have the best shot if the Euro verifies. This is the furthest north the mix gets on the 0z Euro.

Euro was to aggressive with slamming the low into bwi.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Probably 1-2” per hour this evening under the best banding.

This is a classic Nor Easter it is looking like. Wall of snow then dry slot or sleet  

We have to see if  another round of snow comes through at the end.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro was to aggressive with slamming the low into bwi.

It would be nice for the low to stay out in the ocean towards the other low. If that would happened that  bigger snow totals would occur.

[uofmiami]

54 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Upton staying very aggressive/bullish, I think even more so overnight. Really hope they’re correct. They have me at 13-14” for the event which is essentially what the Euro-most snowy model has and I don’t have any soundings from it. Looks like the trend overnight was slightly to moderately good for more snow but I can also see it being warmer aloft and many of us flipping to sleet near the coast after 4-5”, in which case my 13-14” Upton call will be quite high. Hopefully I get more than the 6-7” I was thinking earlier and it can be more like 10”. If 13-14” I’ll obviously be thrilled. 

OKX has Huntington with a range of 7-14” with 13” forecasted. Has me in Syosset also with a range of 7-14” with 14” forecasted. OKX definitely going with the higher end along the N Shore, let’s hope that’s correct in the end.

[Rjay]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Final call

Knyc 6-12

KEwr 6-12

Klga 6-12

Kjfk 4-8

 

@MJO812/@LibertyBell/Me 5-10"

@psv88/@jm1220 /@uofmiami  8-14"

@Allsnow/@Stormlover74 /@forkyfork 8-14"

@BxEngine/@snowman19 10-16"

@Animal 14-20"

@snywx and crew 14-20"

@Tatamy 18-24"

@Juliancolton 18-24"

 

Bust zone is NENJ, NYC and LI

[Allsnow]

20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

What are you thoughts on our area? I'm thinking sleet keeps us from double digits at a minimum based purely on the speculation here by some key posters......

6-12. We are in a good position for this event because of our location. Once the low starts moving East it will change our wind direction. I think we will sleet for a bit but in between the fronto band and decaying ccb. We will not get above 32 at the surface 

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This will be my biggest storm in 2 years and more that what I got the whole winter last year.

if the storm performs to its high end some places could get 1/2 to 3/4 of their seasonal total in one night

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

if the storm performs to its high end some places could get 1/2 to 3/4 of their seasonal total in one night

Well considering Philly got 0.3 and I got 2.3 inches last winter , that will be doable lol.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, Rjay said:

@MJO812/@LibertyBell/Me 5-10"

@psv88/@jm1220 /@uofmiami  8-14"

@Allsnow/@Stormlover74 /@forkyfork 8-14"

@BxEngine/@snowman19 10-16"

@Animal 14-20"

@snywx and crew 14-20"

@Tatamy 18-24"

@Juliancolton 18-24"

 

Bust zone is NENJ, NYC and LI

YAY thanks a bunch RJay!  You dont get this kind of personalized attention anywhere else!

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro was to aggressive with slamming the low into bwi.

 

 

I would probably rate this Euro forecast as one of the better ones in recent years. Most of the runs had the low tucking in around Cape May. It just looks like the ejection will be more ENE toward the BM instead of due east off Cape May.

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

6-12. We are in a good position for this event because of our location. Once the low starts moving East it will change our wind direction. I think we will sleet for a bit but in between the fronto band and decaying ccb. We will not get above 32 at the surface 

I got a question perhaps you can answer....other storms that have taken this same or very similar track have been all snow, what's keeping that from happening with this one, it looks like it will pass considerably south of Long Island (like by more than 50 miles)

 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I would probably rate this Euro forecast as one of the better ones in recent years. Most of the runs had the low tucking into around Cape May. It just looks like the ejection will be more ENE toward the BM instead of due east off Cape May.

yeah that's what put Boston and souther VT and NH back into the game

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I would probably rate this Euro forecast as one of the better ones in recent years. Most of the runs had the low tucking in around Cape May. It just looks like the ejection will be more ENE toward the BM instead of due east off Cape May.

So that should mean we should have much more snow vs anything else?

 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is a classic Nor Easter it is looking like. Wall of snow then dry slot or sleet  

We have to see if  another round of snow comes through at the end.

thats not a classic noreaster lol- in the weather textbook I read Feb 1983 was mentioned as a classic noreaster, look that one up.

 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah that's what put Boston and souther VT and NH back into the game

8-14" for you too b#s

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah that's what put Boston and souther VT and NH back into the game

The 50/50 sliding east quicker than originally forecasted put them back into the game imo. 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would probably rate this Euro forecast as one of the better ones in recent years. Most of the runs had the low tucking in around Cape May. It just looks like the ejection will be more ENE toward the BM instead of due east off Cape May.

Agree. I was just referring to why it has gotten colder. But overall good job 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Even areas south of Sunrise Highway should pick up at least 6” before any mixing issues by around 11pm tonight.

Think the western part of the south shore is a better place to be than the eastern part?  Remember in March 1993 on a more westward track, JFK and Oceanside still got double digit snowfall while eastern parts of the south shore did much worse.  Also how much snow on the backside tomorrow?

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I got a question perhaps you can answer....other storms that have taken this same or very similar track have been all snow, what's keeping that from happening with this one, it looks like it will pass considerably south of Long Island (like by more than 50 miles)

 

The transfer to the new low and track into Delmarva. It sends some mid level warmth into are direction. If we didn’t have a 1038 high it would have been all rain 

[geeter1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thats not a classic noreaster lol- in the weather textbook I read Feb 1983 was mentioned as a classic noreaster, look that one up.

 

We got married on Feb. 11 1983. Got 27". Classic NorEaster.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Soundings wise things continue to be precariously close.  We will be using dual poll for sure.  The 06 LGA and JFK NAM soundings show now that even from 00-02Z it’s darn close to flipping to sleet at times.  If that layer is even underestimated by 1C it’ll flip to sleet way earlier than expected 

how much snow coming on the back end?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The transfer to the new low and track into Delmarva. It sends some mid level warmth into are direction. If we didn’t have a 1038 high it would have been all rain 

wait so is this a Miller B then?

 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

21F. When was the last time it was this cold/dry with precip moving in? 

It’s been a while for sure. The cutter storm last year which actually was the most significant event of the winter for many is the only storm that comes to mind last winter where temps started in the 20s.

[lee59]

busy NE wind here already, gusting to 18mph.

[jm1220]

The latest NAM soundings didn't look horrible to me. I checked near JFK at 3z tonight and looks like all layers are solidly below freezing albeit not the best ratios since the best lift is below where dendrites grow (-12 to -18C). And it's showing about 0.8" liquid there by then and snow is coming down like crazy with the dryslot coming north through NJ up to about Trenton then. 

By 6z the dryslot is in with spotty precip and we have the warm layer at 750mb again from the city east, but according to this run most of the heavy steady precip before then will be snow. The precip on the back end starts as sleet for the same area but transitions back to snow-however like always who knows how much of that is real. 

The mid level low tracks still aren't great. 700 low looks to go a little north of the city and 850 low a little south. That will mean warm mid level air definitely makes a surge into the area. Just have to hope it coincides with the spotty precip/dryslot. 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thats not a classic noreaster lol- in the weather textbook I read Feb 1983 was mentioned as a classic noreaster, look that one up.

 

There's all types of nor'easters that can produce heavy snow or rain in this area. The only real definition of it is it produces strong northeast winds lol. The classic snowmaking ones here track off the coast and have the strong cold high in place. There are others that hug the coast or have a warm airmass in place.