Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[the_other_guy]

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

That’s deflating especially coming off last winter but at least this event will produce way more snow than all of last winter did 

Dont be deflated. It is Dec 16. History tells us this Dec storm is a good harbinger of other storms. Also have a good airmass for the rest of Dec.

 

[SnowGoose69]

Soundings wise things continue to be precariously close.  We will be using dual poll for sure.  The 06 LGA and JFK NAM soundings show now that even from 00-02Z it’s darn close to flipping to sleet at times.  If that layer is even underestimated by 1C it’ll flip to sleet way earlier than expected 

[tim]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm at 8F dew so that's a good sign. Will see if the cold, dry high helps force the low more offshore as it moves north. 

...KFOK(west hampton gabreski airport) dew point @ 12*..maybe we are grasping at straws but trying to stay 

positive..

[the_other_guy]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm at 8F dew so that's a good sign. Will see if the cold, dry high helps force the low more offshore as it moves north. 

21F. When was the last time it was this cold/dry with precip moving in? 

[wxman]

Don't worry about dire predictions for the rest of this winter.  Last year some of the best and brightest were predicting an epic winter, and we know how that turned out.  In these parts very hard to tell what will happen.  The stars have to align no matter the overall pattern, and when they do they do.  I think that unpredictability and scarcity fuels the obsession. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

where is the one for Southern Nassau county and how much did they predict for there?  Thanks

Even areas south of Sunrise Highway should pick up at least 3-6” before any mixing tonight.

[lee59]

It's time for me to check the radar and other observations, more than the models. It's nowcast time.

[North and West]

Dew points in low and mid single digits across the region....impressive airmass and very important.

I did the math on mine and it’s a 6° dew point above MMU. Not sure what that means moving forward; perhaps someone with more expertise can explain.


.

[jm1220]

Upton staying very aggressive/bullish, I think even more so overnight. Really hope they’re correct. They have me at 13-14” for the event which is essentially what the Euro-most snowy model has and I don’t have any soundings from it. Looks like the trend overnight was slightly to moderately good for more snow but I can also see it being warmer aloft and many of us flipping to sleet near the coast after 4-5”, in which case my 13-14” Upton call will be quite high. Hopefully I get more than the 6-7” I was thinking earlier and it can be more like 10”. If 13-14” I’ll obviously be thrilled. 

[Northof78]

model time essentially done, very cold/dry air locked in place, storm coming up coast...enjoy all!

[weatherpruf]

18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Soundings wise things continue to be precariously close.  We will be using dual poll for sure.  The 06 LGA and JFK NAM soundings show now that even from 00-02Z it’s darn close to flipping to sleet at times.  If that layer is even underestimated by 1C it’ll flip to sleet way earlier than expected 

It is almost always flips earlier than progged. Would like to see a decent event, but have seen so many sleet fests over the years that I will not be the least bit surprised to end up with 2-4 of sleet/ice encrusted sleet with a little zr on top just to make it dangerous.....this has happened so many times I've lost count. 

[CIK62]

Cross section at 1am Thurs.       45mph gusts directly out of the east/northeast and from over 50 degree waters.       Wonder if snow will be able to make it  to the surface at this time:

courtesy of AccuWeather.       I am at bottom center.

 

[ForestHillWx]

To my untrained eye, that dry slot showing up in the western half of central and north Jersey, as modeled, will significantly reduce our potential for accumulation.
 

Almost every model has had “something” (I want to call it a transition zone) where the storms energy appears to jump to the coastal, that is going to make for a period of light snow at best. Is that the effect of the 700mb low center?

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Torch said:

North of the LIE may not see any mixing.

Areas further west back toward NYC may have the best shot if the Euro verifies. This is the furthest north the mix gets on the 0z Euro.

[weatherpruf]

12 minutes ago, lee59 said:

It's time for me to check the radar and other observations, more than the models. It's nowcast time.

 It's always nowcast time in these here parts....this here is the NYC forum, and if I were you, pilgrim, I'd just keep on movin......

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Cross section at 1am Thurs.       45mph gusts directly out of the east/northeast and from over 50 degree waters.       Wonder if snow will be able to make it  to the surface at this time:

courtesy of AccuWeather.       I am at bottom center.

 

I’m never thrilled about ENE winds off these warm waters in Dec. Wouldn’t surprise me if eastern Suffolk has a period where it’s raining. It would flip back to snow/sleet when winds turn back to NE/NNE but we’ll see what precip is left by then. 

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Areas further west back toward NYC may have the best shot if the Euro verifies. This is the furthest north the mix gets on the 0z Euro.

The line is always right over my house. Always. Crossroads of NJ; crossroads of p-types...

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Upton staying very aggressive/bullish, I think even more so overnight. Really hope they’re correct. They have me at 13-14” for the event which is essentially what the Euro-most snowy model has and I don’t have any soundings from it. Looks like the trend overnight was slightly to moderately good for more snow but I can also see it being warmer aloft and many of us flipping to sleet near the coast after 4-5”, in which case my 13-14” Upton call will be quite high. Hopefully I get more than the 6-7” I was thinking earlier and it can be more like 10”. If 13-14” I’ll obviously be thrilled. 

The airmass is great at the surface. That should keep temps below freezing. I stil think the south shore goes to sleet and ice after 6-8”. Snow removal there is going to be a bitch.

where I am on the far uws looks great for a foot. I doubt I see more then a short period of sleet an freezing drizzle here. 

[SnoSki14]

I heard 06Z Euro looked really good.

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m never thrilled about ENE winds off these warm waters in Dec. Wouldn’t surprise me if eastern Suffolk has a period where it’s raining. It would flip back to snow/sleet when winds turn back to NE/NNE but we’ll see what precip is left by then. 

Yeah anything east sucks.....northeast is the wind you want. North is ok, NW pushes things out. ALways liked the NW for fishing; dread the NE, E and S/SE. get SE quite a bit; a nasty wind on the water, and while it warms the atmosphere, conversely it cools the water and shuts the fish off.....at least the old salts tell me that ( I'm getting to be an old salt myself).

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I heard 06Z Euro looked really good.

I saw the Wxbell maps in the New England forum, looks like it essentially held from the last run? I have no idea if these count sleet as snow and any other info about it though. Still seems by far the snowiest model here if sleet isn’t counted. Having a hard time buying that we essentially have no mixing from the city east. 

[North and West]

.

[lee59]

10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah anything east sucks.....northeast is the wind you want. North is ok, NW pushes things out. ALways liked the NW for fishing; dread the NE, E and S/SE. get SE quite a bit; a nasty wind on the water, and while it warms the atmosphere, conversely it cools the water and shuts the fish off.....at least the old salts tell me that ( I'm getting to be an old salt myself).

40/70 scenario always best for the coast. This track, especially with some models, concerning for the coast.

[Allsnow]

Final call

Knyc 6-12

KEwr 6-12

Klga 6-12

Kjfk 4-8

 

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Final call

Knyc 6-12

KEwr 6-12

Klga 6-12

Kjfk 4-8

 

What are you thoughts on our area? I'm thinking sleet keeps us from double digits at a minimum based purely on the speculation here by some key posters......

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The airmass is great at the surface. That should keep temps below freezing. I stil think the south shore goes to sleet and ice after 6-8”. Snow removal there is going to be a bitch.

where I am on the far uws looks great for a foot. I doubt I see more then a short period of sleet an freezing drizzle here. 

For now yes and it will stay that way for the city and inland. Question is really near the coast where it won’t take much easterly flow to spike up the temps. That’s why eastern NJ gets all rain. 

[wxman]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I heard 06Z Euro looked really good.

Yup.  13-16+ all of NJ from Raritan bay north.

[MJO812]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even areas south of Sunrise Highway should pick up at least 6” before any mixing issues by around 11pm tonight.

Wall of snow

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Final call

Knyc 6-12

KEwr 6-12

Klga 6-12

Kjfk 4-8

 

Good call

Lets hope the low stays more east and we get alot more than that .

[Northof78]

Bernie Rayno all/mostly all snow NYC, dewpoints and airmass people...

[MJO812]

This will be my biggest storm in 2 years and more that what I got the whole winter last year.