Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Mitchel Volk]

Sleet in Brooklyn Heights 

[NJwx85]

Radar is filling back in nicely over NNJ.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, bklnwx1 said:

Heavy accumulating sleet now in Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn

Hey neighbor 

I'm also from Sheepshead Bay

Windswept sleet right now

[jaysoner]

Heavy sleet. All sleet. North Arlington, NJ. 6 miles west of midtown Manhattan.

[TriPol]

Puking sleet here.

[L.I.Pete]

SN in Port Jeff Station. No pingers. Wind is gusting pretty good. 4.75”


.

[jm1220]

50/50 snow and sleet. Fighting back and forth.

[HVSnowLover]

Watching this sleet show is at least more entertaining than a dry slot 

[MJO812]

Back to snow here in Brooklyn 

[Joe4alb]

Still snow in sag harbor, no sleet yet

[Brasiluvsnow]

New City best guesstimate 6 inches,,,snowing and sleeting lightly,, Does anyone have a link to the radar ? Im having issues with Mount Holly ,thanks in advance 

[USCG RS]

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While there have been areas of heavy snow the last couple of
hours, the most organized band of heavy snow has worked north
of the region. To the south, the precipitation has become more
disjointed with reports of sleet working in across the NYC metro
and Long Island. There could be some wavering the next couple
of hours as intensity varies, but it appears NYC and Long Island
will not see much more in the way of heavy snow. There could
still be an additional 6 or more inches across the Lower Hudson
Valley, interior NE NJ, and southern CT through the end of the
event. Across the NYC metro and Long Island, perhaps an
additional 1 to 3 inches. This could be pushing it, but it will
depend on how quickly the cold air can be drawn back in around
the surface low passing to the south in the morning.

Thus, the storm total snow has been adjusted downward with as
little as 3 to 5 inches across eastern Long Island, 5 to 10
inches across the NYC metro and western Long Island, and 10 to
15 inches to the north. This downward trend may have to be
continued with subsequent updates depending on the evolution of
the precipitation shield to the south and west as a strong
negatively tilted shortwave trough approaches the region.
Regional radar clearly shows back filling on the radar across
the northern Mid Atlantic region, which will pivot NE.

Gust NE to E winds will become more northerly as the low pulls
east towards daybreak, which will allow colder air to filter
back into the region, possibly changing precipitation back to
snow toward the end of the event.

NE winds could gust to 35-45 mph across much of the area overnight,
with gusts to 45-55 mph possible across far eastern Long Island.
This will result in limited visibilities, but with mainly mixed
precipitation with the strongest winds, visibilities will
generally be greater than a 1/4 mile.

 

OKX discussion from 2307 16 December 2020 

[KeithB]

6.8 inches and moderately snowing here in central Rockland. At times I hear a few pings, but idk if any sleet can really be in this up here. IDK. 

[NJwx85]

Heavy sleet in Bardonia.

[HVSnowLover]

Mid level low 

6 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While there have been areas of heavy snow the last couple of
hours, the most organized band of heavy snow has worked north
of the region. To the south, the precipitation has become more
disjointed with reports of sleet working in across the NYC metro
and Long Island. There could be some wavering the next couple
of hours as intensity varies, but it appears NYC and Long Island
will not see much more in the way of heavy snow. There could
still be an additional 6 or more inches across the Lower Hudson
Valley, interior NE NJ, and southern CT through the end of the
event. Across the NYC metro and Long Island, perhaps an
additional 1 to 3 inches. This could be pushing it, but it will
depend on how quickly the cold air can be drawn back in around
the surface low passing to the south in the morning.

Thus, the storm total snow has been adjusted downward with as
little as 3 to 5 inches across eastern Long Island, 5 to 10
inches across the NYC metro and western Long Island, and 10 to
15 inches to the north. This downward trend may have to be
continued with subsequent updates depending on the evolution of
the precipitation shield to the south and west as a strong
negatively tilted shortwave trough approaches the region.
Regional radar clearly shows back filling on the radar across
the northern Mid Atlantic region, which will pivot NE.

Gust NE to E winds will become more northerly as the low pulls
east towards daybreak, which will allow colder air to filter
back into the region, possibly changing precipitation back to
snow toward the end of the event.

NE winds could gust to 35-45 mph across much of the area overnight,
with gusts to 45-55 mph possible across far eastern Long Island.
This will result in limited visibilities, but with mainly mixed
precipitation with the strongest winds, visibilities will
generally be greater than a 1/4 mile.

 

OKX discussion from 2307 16 December 2020 

mid level low really ruined this for the immediate tri state. Still a nice winter storm but could’ve been a lot more without sneaky warm layer 

[TheManWithNoFace]

7 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While there have been areas of heavy snow the last couple of
hours, the most organized band of heavy snow has worked north
of the region. To the south, the precipitation has become more
disjointed with reports of sleet working in across the NYC metro
and Long Island. There could be some wavering the next couple
of hours as intensity varies, but it appears NYC and Long Island
will not see much more in the way of heavy snow. There could
still be an additional 6 or more inches across the Lower Hudson
Valley, interior NE NJ, and southern CT through the end of the
event. Across the NYC metro and Long Island, perhaps an
additional 1 to 3 inches. This could be pushing it, but it will
depend on how quickly the cold air can be drawn back in around
the surface low passing to the south in the morning.

Thus, the storm total snow has been adjusted downward with as
little as 3 to 5 inches across eastern Long Island, 5 to 10
inches across the NYC metro and western Long Island, and 10 to
15 inches to the north. This downward trend may have to be
continued with subsequent updates depending on the evolution of
the precipitation shield to the south and west as a strong
negatively tilted shortwave trough approaches the region.
Regional radar clearly shows back filling on the radar across
the northern Mid Atlantic region, which will pivot NE.

Gust NE to E winds will become more northerly as the low pulls
east towards daybreak, which will allow colder air to filter
back into the region, possibly changing precipitation back to
snow toward the end of the event.

NE winds could gust to 35-45 mph across much of the area overnight,
with gusts to 45-55 mph possible across far eastern Long Island.
This will result in limited visibilities, but with mainly mixed
precipitation with the strongest winds, visibilities will
generally be greater than a 1/4 mile.

 

OKX discussion from 2307 16 December 2020 

I don't understand. It's not about cold air wrapping around the sfc low. It's about resaturating the column and mid level lift. 

[USCG RS]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Mid level low 

mid level low really ruined this for the immediate tri state. Still a nice winter storm but could’ve been a lot more without sneaky warm layer 

Yeah. This is exactly what I was worried about as models began to amp and move this NW. 

[USCG RS]

4 minutes ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

I don't understand. It's not about cold air wrapping around the sfc low. It's about resaturating the column and mid level lift. 

We're missing that and the mid levels torched due to winds off the ocean. 

[KeithB]

Yup. Full on snow and sleet mix. Heavy pinging going on right now in central rockland. I didn't believe it since they told me NO WAY it mixes this far NW, yet...it has.

[Thm19]

Still snowing in Halesite/Centerport.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM has been the model showing lower totals for this area due to both mid level warming and dry slot issues. So if we end up getting lower amounts, which appears to be the case right now (unless we get a very strong back end overnight), then NAM was the model that actually did the best.

I always assume the lower amounts.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

I don't understand. It's not about cold air wrapping around the sfc low. It's about resaturating the column and mid level lift. 

The are a  day late and a dollar short. We had people here saying this and getting slammed. When I hear warm air aloft and coastal winds, it ain't gonna be a big snow for most of us. But it was still ok. Looks real nice. Just a normal type of event for around here. If its the first of a few, that's fine. If it's the only shot of the winter, well we're getting used to that too. If anything, I thought the sleet held off a bit to give us a decent 3-6 event for a lot of us, and there were a number of people here who said 2-4/3-6. Will go to bed and test the new snow blowers tomorrow. Think the little electric toro can do the whole job, but gotta try out the big one.

[MJO812]

There will be no big back end snows. The pivot will benefit New England. 

[nycwinter]

storm bust for the city...

[TheManWithNoFace]

18 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The are a  day late and a dollar short. We had people here saying this and getting slammed. When I hear warm air aloft and coastal winds, it ain't gonna be a big snow for most of us. But it was still ok. Looks real nice. Just a normal type of event for around here. If its the first of a few, that's fine. If it's the only shot of the winter, well we're getting used to that too. If anything, I thought the sleet held off a bit to give us a decent 3-6 event for a lot of us, and there were a number of people here who said 2-4/3-6. Will go to bed and test the new snow blowers tomorrow. Think the little electric toro can do the whole job, but gotta try out the big one.

That's my point. Upton is the plumb job of the weather planet right? How can anyone in that office be talking about surface winds/temps when half the hobbyists understand that it's about what's aloft?

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, ChickenMan888 said:

****ing bust of a storm for southern westchester

Sleetfest

[Parterre]

56 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

storm bust for the city...

Same as it ever was...

[Blizzardo]

Another fudder dudder...

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

That's my point. Upton is the plumb job of the weather planet right? How can anyone in that office be talking about surface winds/temps when half the hobbyists understand that it's about what's aloft?

Ya got me there. 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

There will be no big back end snows. The pivot will benefit New England. 

The models continue to be missing something. As I said elsewhere, predictive science is taking a beating across the board. There were some depictions that were close to correct, but far too many that overdid it. It's enough that I'm tending to discount the big numbers absent other important factors ( can't say what that would be ) and just shaving those numbers to skew lower. There were things models picked up on ,like dry slotting, that people assumed would fill in when, in my experience, dry slots tend to persist when they set up. There were models pointing to a lot of sleet ( and actually the snow held on ok for most, giving us 3-6 before flipping and even then flipping back enough to keep it from totally ruining the show ). I noted that if sleet intruded early it would probably make it further than people think; in this i was correct, not because I know that much, I've just seen it time and again. Lets be happy we got what we got, because it could have been worse. I at least have a few 1 foot drifts! By the way, from cartops, it looks like I did see almost another inch of snow after the sleet flipped again. So maybe 6-7 inches, I'll leave it to others to do the actual measurement, as the differences between 4-5 and 3-6 are too small to worry about.