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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

For those worried about the sleet in HRRR,

1. It's very unreliable past hour 10.

2. You CAN continue accumulation once sleet mixes in as long as its not PURE sleet. 

In 2017 March had 7 inches snow. Turned to heavy sleet with snow. Added another 2.5 inches in 3 hours. Snow depth was 9.5.

Sleet does accumulate, it's 3-1 ratio so 0.33" liquid would be 1" sleet. It's just that it pounds into and compresses the snow so the snow depth likely wouldn't increase. 

On another note I looked at a sounding for 5z on the 20z HRRR about where I am and the entire column looks to be below freezing, but it has me as sleet. Not sure how that can be. For a few hours before it's close but heavy snow rates hold off the warm air just enough. 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
Just now, jm1220 said:

Sleet does accumulate, it's 3-1 ratio so 0.33" liquid would be 1" sleet. It's just that it pounds into and compresses the snow so the snow depth likely wouldn't increase. 

On another note I looked at a sounding for 5z on the 20z HRRR about where I am and the entire column looks to be below freezing, but it has me as sleet. Not sure how that can be. For a few hours before it's close but heavy snow rates hold off the warm air just enough. 

Saw on another board that HRRR keeps all of LI snow, so it may be the product you are using

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sleet does accumulate, it's 3-1 ratio so 0.33" liquid would be 1" sleet. It's just that it pounds into and compresses the snow so the snow depth likely wouldn't increase. 

On another note I looked at a sounding for 5z on the 20z HRRR about where I am and the entire column looks to be below freezing, but it has me as sleet. Not sure how that can be. For a few hours before it's close but heavy snow rates hold off the warm air just enough. 

Thing is on these models it will show snow and sleet mix as sleet. So you could be 50 percent snow and sleet mix. That's how my snow depth increased from 7 to 9.5 when I changed to sleet. Obviously different story if all sleet 

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wxman

wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

I am here in Belle Mead and the rates while picked up over the last hour are nothing to write home about moderate type rates....we have about an inch down...got half inch in the past hour

It's snowing like a beast.  I see it and radar confirms it.  Just blasted over 2".  Maybe you live in a microclimate.

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