Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[MJO812]

Flakes starting here in Brooklyn

[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:00 PM, nycsnow said:

Should be snowing in Staten Island and by me soon if radar is correct 

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Starting here in Brooklyn 

[jdpack]

  On 12/16/2020 at 6:51 PM, nycsnow said:

1-2? Maybe in an hour 

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Im as big of snow weenie as anyone. But this has bust city written all over it. That warm nose will destroy dreams.

[liwxfan]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:01 PM, jdpack said:

Im as big of snow weenie as anyone. But this has bust city written all over it. That warm nose will destroy dreams.

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If you’re worried about a warm nose just step out side for a few mins.

[SnowGoose69]

As of 19Z 3km NAM continues to be a tad fast and HRRR way too slow with change.  BWI should be going SNPL though by 1930Z so about 30-40 minutes behind the 3km NAM

[Eduardo]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:03 PM, liwxfan said:

If you’re worried about a warm nose just step out side for a few mins.

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And jump...very high!

[nianticct]

Back to snow in DC

[jdpack]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:03 PM, liwxfan said:

If you’re worried about a warm nose just step out side for a few mins.

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Warm nose has nothing to do with surface temps.

[allgame830]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:04 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

As of 19Z 3km NAM continues to be a tad fast and HRRR way too slow with change.  BWI should be going SNPL though by 1930Z so about 30-40 minutes behind the 3km NAM

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so for about every hour late that could mean 1-2" give or take in most locales.  Correct?

[allgame830]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:05 PM, jdpack said:

Warm nose has nothing to do with surface temps.

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your right it doesn't but your literally the only one on here saying this.... @SnowGoose69 said right above even the NAM is running 30-40 to fast with the change to sleet.

[sussexcountyobs]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:01 PM, jdpack said:

Im as big of snow weenie as anyone. But this has bust city written all over it. That warm nose will destroy dreams.

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Just heard 1010 WINS meteorologist live on radio. He expects around 12" for Manhattan. 

6-12" for Brooklyn and Queens and

1 - 2 feet north and west.

[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:05 PM, jdpack said:

Warm nose has nothing to do with surface temps.

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Who knows if the Nam is right.

Every other model has it snowing hard before a possible changeover.

[EastonSN+]

DC flips back and forth with snow as the precip intensity changes. Saw on TWC.

[Rtd208]

Light snow has begun here. Temp 32/DP 22

[donsutherland1]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:13 PM, MJO812 said:

Who knows if the Nam is right.

Every other model has it snowing hard before a possible changeover.

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I believe you have an arrest to make. The crime is attempted theft of snow.

On a more serious note, light snow has now been reported even in parts of Manhattan.

[MJO812]

Light to moderate snow now in Brooklyn.

[jdpack]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:13 PM, MJO812 said:

Who knows if the Nam is right.

Every other model has it snowing hard before a possible changeover.

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Those models dont take into account sleet mixing in. If (more like, when) the sleet mixes in, that 10:1 ratio goes POOF and the totals go with it.

[SnowGoose69]

FZRAPL at BWI.  HRDPS/RGEM/3km NAM all about right.  extrapolating the NAM was 30 mins too fast.   the HRRR has no clue

[EastonSN+]

On TWC they said reports from DC are 1 to 3 inches before they changed. Not sure what parts of DC. They had intense band before changing. 

[wdrag]

Am monitoring a  bit now. No further comment on modeling til NWS adjusts whatever they believe they need to.  I think what you're all doing, tracking 3K NAM vs HRRR is probably the most important on short range performance.

 

[NJwx85]

5.9” per hour

 

[wdrag]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:13 PM, MJO812 said:

Who knows if the Nam is right.

Every other model has it snowing hard before a possible changeover.

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It will!

[jm1220]

  On 12/16/2020 at 6:46 PM, liwxfan said:

Fellow north shore Suffolk peeps out there..how you feeling? This should be pretty interesting for us..excited to see how it unfolds here in Miller place

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Snow comes in like gangbusters and accumulates 1-2”/hr for several hours, then we see where the dryslot and mild level warm air gets. That plus what back end snow there is determines whether we get 6-8” or the 12” officially predicted here. I’m leaning toward the 6-8” for now but a delayed warmup aloft and decent burst of snow to end it could mean it really works out. 

[donsutherland1]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:36 PM, EastonSN+ said:

On TWC they said reports from DC are 1 to 3 inches before they changed. Not sure what parts of DC. They had intense band before changing. 

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IAD had reported 2.1" so far. Adams Morgan 1 ESE in Washington, DC reported 1.0". Reagan National Airport had reported a trace.

[SnowGoose69]

I've heard of that maybe 2 times before in a synoptic snow storm.  Usually 4-5 is about the most you can get

[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:38 PM, wdrag said:

It will!

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Not as fast at it shows . We should get a good thump before that.

[EastonSN+]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:41 PM, donsutherland1 said:

IAD had reported 2.1" so far. Adams Morgan 1 ESE in Washington, DC reported 1.0". Reagan National Airport had reported a trace.

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Thanks. This to me shows how even if we mix we can get some pretty impressive snow totals beforehand. Maybe similar to March 2017?

[wizard021]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:38 PM, NJwx85 said:

5.9” per hour

 

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Told you all  DO NOT doubt the WIZARD.

[wdrag]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:42 PM, MJO812 said:

Not as fast at it shows . We should get a good thump before that.

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It will .. meant it will snow hard.

[wizard021]

  On 12/16/2020 at 7:40 PM, ChickenMan888 said:

Is that even legal? lmao

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I had 6 inches an hour in the 2006 storm. Yes it is.