Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[JonClaw]

For what it's worth, SREF mean has trended upwards for LGA over the last 4 runs: 6.68", 7.95", 8.00", and now 9.56"

[mikem81]

2 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

For what it's worth, SREF mean has trended upwards for LGA over the last 4 runs: 6.68", 7.95", 8.00", and now 9.56"

Didnt know they still existed. Those are great for storms that are well east if you still want to find a model that will show Snow. Guess they can be used for trends as they are a blend of the short term models that run with the Nam

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Didnt know they still existed. Those are great for storms that are well east if you still want to find a model that will show Snow. Guess they can be used for trends as they are a blend of the short term models that run with the Nam

They tend to be over amped further out and more accurate closer in. 

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Sleet mixing in now outside DC.

 

Doesn't look like much. Hope we do better than that.

[jm1220]

FWIW the “wall” of heavy snow we need is setting up pretty well down in MD and VA. 

[Blizzardo]

Precip hitting Philly

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Rare post, but Thanksgiving 1993 Dallas, Leon Lett fumble game in Dallas, that looked like snow on TV but was 90% sleet, and a lot of thunder and lightning.  Wrong forum, but sleet can be fun, especially thunder sleet.

[SnowGoose69]

Watch this radar next 2 hours...that line should make it in PA north of BWI if the 3km NAM is right.

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DOX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Doesn't look like much. Hope we do better than that.

That’s essentially right outside DC near Arlington. They were expected to get maybe an inch or two there. We’re expecting (NYC anyway) about as much as far NW corner of VA and places like Hagerstown or Frederick MD. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Rare post, but Thanksgiving 1993 Dallas, Leon Lett fumble game in Dallas, that looked like snow on TV but was 90% sleet, and a lot of thunder and lightning.  Wrong forum, but sleet can be fun, especially thunder sleet.

I don't think I've had thundersleet since January 26th, 2011.  

[Sn0waddict]

15 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Didnt know they still existed. Those are great for storms that are well east if you still want to find a model that will show Snow. Guess they can be used for trends as they are a blend of the short term models that run with the Nam

Likewise, the plumes are always just fun to look at though . For example the mean in Scranton is 22 inches including one model that gives them 15 inches in three hours!  Best here is 8 inches in 3 hours, which would still be incredible lol

[North and West]

9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Rare post, but Thanksgiving 1993 Dallas, Leon Lett fumble game in Dallas, that looked like snow on TV but was 90% sleet, and a lot of thunder and lightning.  Wrong forum, but sleet can be fun, especially thunder sleet.

All time great game

[MJO812]

Euro looks good

I'm such a weenie. I have a few paid subscriptions lol. 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NAM doing a better job with the change to sleet in DC. HRRR and Euro were too cold there and slower to changeover.

 

Question. Would the fact that EURO and other models curving the system right instead of directly at us hinder the sleet advancement?

 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NAM doing a better job with the change to sleet in DC. HRRR and Euro were too cold there and slower to changeover.

 

Not a surprise. A degree or two at 750-800 mb makes all the difference for many around the city and coastal areas. 

[Tatamy]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

FWIW the “wall” of heavy snow we need is setting up pretty well down in MD and VA. 

I am seeing very light snow begin here.  There is steady light snow falling to my west between Allentown and Harrisburg.  Visibilities that I am seeing in those areas look to be about 1 - 2 miles along I-78.  Along I-81 to the south and west of Harrisburg visibilities drop off steadily.  I am seeing 1/4 mile visibilities as you go down towards MD.

[wdrag]

Have seen 12z/16 EC..enough to keep me thinking ice and packed snow LI/NYC sometime later tonight but it goes back to all snow by 5 or 6AM i think and snows another inch or possibly 2 in the city 7A-9A.  I could see snow amounts capping 8-12" inland I-78 I to I195 due to sleet.  Also think  1 hr flash freeze (8F temp drop self defined for parts of NYC Monmouth County when the wind shifts to n around 5or 6A 33-25).  IF that happens, bad news for bridges and rails. Again, FOLLOW NWS.  This is just something the models have been trying to hint at for a number of cycles.

One other thing: EC does not have thunder.  But per multiple models I see qpf suppression in an area w of I95 and near I78.  These things happen in big storms and NOT predictable yet where they will occur.

Nothin here yet. 119P and off line til 2PM ish

[JBG]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

I have experienced sleet with temps in the teens. Talk about frustrating. Now I’m in Dutchess so I should be sitting pretty tonight. 

Remember the Valentine's Day Sleet Storm, February 14, 2007?

[Sn0waddict]

Just now, JBG said:

Remember the Valentine's Day Sleet Storm, February 14, 2007?

When I hear of a sleet storm that’s the first thing I think of.

[MJO812]

Temps tomorrow night will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. 

Brrrr

[jdpack]

In JC here. I am not liking the 850/700 temps. 

Surface temps are fine, but I think there is a huge bust potential here. My experience from warm noses like this are they usually over perform and tend to creep further North and West than predicted. The 9-13in here is in serious question.

[weatherpruf]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro looks good

I'm such a weenie. I have a few paid subscriptions lol. 

Nothing wrong with a clean hobby Anthony. If you fished, hunted or golfed you'd spend a lot more, trust me ( and no I do not hunt or golf, but I have enough fishing rods to outfit a whole party boat )

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Are 850 temps 13C colder than water temps there?  I'm not sure they are.  It also seems to be developing in a manner its not associated with ocean effect

Clashing of the two airmasses causing frontogenesis? 

[hudsonvalley21]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Temps tomorrow night will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. 

Brrrr

Point n click forecast low for tomorrow night is 14 IMBY.

[SnowGoose69]

As of 130 the 3km NAM is too fast with the changeover line in MD and the HRRR is way too slow.

[Blizzardo]

Wife said it Just started in Marlboro . I am in Bloomfield for the duration 

[USCG RS]

32 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I don't think I've had thundersleet since January 26th, 2011.  

Feb 2013 had it for Suffolk County

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

As of 130 the 3km NAM is too fast with the changeover line in MD and the HRRR is way too slow.

When even that NAM run was a crushing snow burst here later tonight I’ll take that as a plus. 

[SnoSki14]

HRRR showing the backend a bit better now.

We could easily add 2-4" as temps drop quickly and winds pick up.

[wizard021]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not a surprise. A degree or two at 750-800 mb makes all the difference for many around the city and coastal areas. 

Wrong.  700 mb lifting here will overcome that.