Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Just to throw this out there... Does anybody remember the Valentine’s Day storm? All sleet. Awesome storm. Stayed around for a long time.

All of a sudden this forum that likes winter weather is so anti-sleet. You get a few hours of snow and several hours of sleet and you are in winter storm nirvana because that snowpack isnt going anywhere for a long time

Yes I was living in State College at the time (2007). Was snowing light there all day, then around dusk moderate to heavy. An hour later the flakes became gigantic and minutes later heavy sleet with temps in the low teens. It was brutal outside and infuriating since the snow was really starting to pile up. The storm ended with a few hours of a real CCB there and 10-11” of quicksand like snow/garbage that froze solid. Much of PA was shut down from that storm. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

When have you ever seen a low hug the coast that far North that resulted in a "brief period of sleet"? As depicted, warm air in the mid levels would fly North way before that frame. Better chance of an ice storm there with the stronger high than snow

You can thank the big high to the north.  If it wasn't for that than this would have been a driving rainstorm for the coast.

[kat5hurricane]

nevermind

[nesussxwx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

You can thank the big high to the north.  If it wasn't for that than this would have been a driving rainstorm for the coast.

That high to the north can guarantee it doesn't rain, but not the same for sleet.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

That high to the north can guarantee it doesn't rain, but not the same for sleet.

I'm just saying this would have been a big rainstorm.

[MJO812]

So many people are worried about sleet. The models don't really show alot of sleet except for the Nam .

Watch the HRRR trends and the radar

This storm can bust in either way

Hopefully it will bust in a great way and we all get hammered.

[MJO812]

Winds are supposed to be really gusty later. 

Is Upton going to issue a blizzard warning?

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Winds are supposed to be really gusty later. 

Is Upton going to issue a blizzard warning?

no, we wont have those conditions 3 straight hours

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Winds are supposed to be really gusty later. 

Is Upton going to issue a blizzard warning?

Pretty windy already by us 

[BxEngine]

42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

People should temper their expectations because there's significant bust potential.

If the immediate NYC metro scores 6" consider that a huge win. 

Sigh.
 

 

 

 

 

 

Ill bet lots of the metro sees a lot more than 6”. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Pretty windy already by us 

Yep winds are picking up here 

[L.I.Pete]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think had 7" of pure sleet it was insane.

Absolute nightmare on the roads and trying to shovel that crap.

Day my daughter was born. Spent hours watching the storm from one of the upper floors of Stony Brook Hospital. So cool.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winds are supposed to be really gusty later. 

Is Upton going to issue a blizzard warning?

Has to be for 3 consecutive hours-blizzard conditions. The worst of the winds may be at the same time there’s a dryslot close by or mixing, and worst of the winds will be on Long Island. If I was them I wouldn’t do so but there could be those conditions for some period of time. 

[nycsnow]

Stronger high maybe can keep things a little more south

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

Forecast is generally on track. Temperature are a bit cooler than previously forecasted, so lowered hourly and max temperatures today. Also, winds are higher, so increased wind speeds through the morning. This may be due to slightly higher pressure in southeastern Canada than the models were showing previously. High pressure will remain north of the region today. Meanwhile, a shortwave over the southern states will become negatively tilted, resulting in an area of low pressure to develop off the mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon. This low will travel northward, parallel to the coast into late afternoon. In terms of weather in our local area, expect clouds to increase from the late morning through the afternoon. By late afternoon, we should start to see some light snowfall move into the area, mainly from southwest to northeast. It is possible that it won`t be until after 6pm, that portions of Southeast CT or Long Island see any precipitation. Temperatures today will range from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[jm1220]

Just now, L.I.Pete said:

Day my daughter was born. Spent hours watching the storm from one of the upper floors of Stony Brook Hospital. So cool.

I wasn’t at home in Long Beach at the time but I was told there was a lot of freezing rain there. Guess the cold air was thicker further north on the island and there was sleet. 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s not only moving but those 10:1 ratio snow maps being posted are severely overdone, they are counting sleet as snow. You are going to get mixing, there’s a mid-level warm nose punching in.....

This is def a concern but anywhere north of I78 it should be easy to hit at least 6" before any flip or dry slot.  

 

[rclab]

6 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

You must be fun at parties. I'm pretty sure it was a light hearted joke, with all due respect to New Jersey of course.

Please forgive the OT but I can understand the sensitivity. Consider that NJ a wonderful state hosts two teams that still consider themselves solely NY. Although, the one named after an aircraft did them a service by not recognizing them. As always ....

[nycsnow]

Some more bands developing off shore 

[NycStormChaser]

6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

no, we wont have those conditions 3 straight hours

NYC will definitely have frequent gusts at 35mph or higher for 3 hours. Not sure if they issue a warning though.

[nycsnow]

R/s line Def getting shunted south a bit down south 

[SnowGoose69]

Watch CNTRL and NE MD as well as S PA near LNS from 18-20z.  If the 3km NAM is right the sleet line is going to blast north through there 

[shadowsintherain]

Stronger high maybe can keep things a little more south

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

Forecast is generally on track. Temperature are a bit cooler than previously forecasted, so lowered hourly and max temperatures today. Also, winds are higher, so increased wind speeds through the morning. This may be due to slightly higher pressure in southeastern Canada than the models were showing previously. High pressure will remain north of the region today. Meanwhile, a shortwave over the southern states will become negatively tilted, resulting in an area of low pressure to develop off the mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon. This low will travel northward, parallel to the coast into late afternoon. In terms of weather in our local area, expect clouds to increase from the late morning through the afternoon. By late afternoon, we should start to see some light snowfall move into the area, mainly from southwest to northeast. It is possible that it won`t be until after 6pm, that portions of Southeast CT or Long Island see any precipitation. Temperatures today will range from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

-- End Changed Discussion --

From the looks of the radar I think we will be snowing by 2pm. Hmmm.


.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, shadowsintherain said:

From the looks of the radar I think we will be snowing by 2pm. Hmmm.


.

Yep

Precip is racing up here

[cleetussnow]

32 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Just to throw this out there... Does anybody remember the Valentine’s Day storm? All sleet. Awesome storm. Stayed around for a long time.

All of a sudden this forum that likes winter weather is so anti-sleet. You get a few hours of snow and several hours of sleet and you are in winter storm nirvana because that snowpack isnt going anywhere for a long time

I totally agree with this.  Those packs will hold on forever.  It’s nice to see 21 inches on the ground but when it’s gone in a week it’s like ‘hey where did everybody go?’  I think I’ll get 10 inches up here and some sleet pack in there.  I am north of HPN.  Best of both worlds!  

#supportthepack

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This is def a concern but anywhere north of I78 it should be easy to hit at least 6" before any flip or dry slot.  

 

I’ve been looking at soundings on the Nam, the warm air tries to come in early but the snow rates and lifting keep it away until they go by. That’s really the key. 

[mikem81]

[LaGrangewx]

12z GRAF would make a lot of people jump with joy 

[MJO812]

HRRR has the precip  filling in after the dry slot with sleet . City stays all snow until the dry slot happens .

 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, LaGrangewx said:

12z GRAF would make a lot of people jump with joy 

? 
Never even heard of that one, where does it come from?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Torch said:

Surface map similar to Feb 83......

That storm was colder than this one will be for many areas.