Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[A-L-E-K]

how much for forkyfork?

[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2020 at 3:58 PM, snowman19 said:

It’s not only moving but those 10:1 ratio snow maps being posted are severely overdone, they are counting sleet as snow. You are going to get mixing, there’s a mid-level warm nose punching in.....

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Euro and gfs has no mixing at all. I do think we mix  as the precip gets list after the majority of snow has fell.

 

If we do stay all snow then the amounts will go up. Have to love living near the coast.

Always on needles lol

[snowman19]

  On 12/16/2020 at 3:59 PM, NJwx85 said:

What? This is how much precip falls between 12z and 18z. After 18z nothing. So even if it does hold on it's over by early afternoon at the latest.

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Agree 100%. It’s almost certainly all over in the morning, let alone the afternoon. It will be a memory by then

[NJwx85]

  On 12/16/2020 at 3:58 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This is ridiculous. What is happening down there will have very little effect up here. We are right next to the cold air source 

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If you read the comments for that tweet I posted it's full of people saying that they expected a good front end dump and instead ended up with a lot of ZR/IP. I'm not saying that necessarily translates up here but it does indicate the level of warming aloft. Cold air damming only keeps the surface cold. 

[HVSnowLover]

Very tough forecast for LI. GFS/Euro basically all snow, NAM/RGEM major precip type issues. 

[bluewave]

The 12NAM has the famous wall of snow sig.

[SleetStormNJ]

  On 12/16/2020 at 3:57 PM, winterwx21 said:

Yeah you definitely want to post the Kuchera ratio maps instead, which Pivotal Weather has.

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Union/Middlesex/Somerset is not getting 19 inches of snow, lol.  8-14 range I can definitely see with an 80/20 balance on snow/sleet accum.

[nycsnow]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:01 PM, NJwx85 said:

If you read the comments for that tweet I posted it's full of people saying that they expected a good front end dump and instead ended up with a lot of ZR/IP. I'm not saying that necessarily translates up here but it does indicate the level of warming aloft. Cold air damming only keeps the surface cold. 

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Most models had them mixing down there.

[MJO812]

Thundersnow possible?

[SnowGoose69]

The place to watch if we want to know if mixing is gonna occur faster is probably MDT (Harrisburg).  The 3km NAM has them mixing 22Z...way faster than any other model

[HeadInTheClouds]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:00 PM, MJO812 said:

Euro and gfs has no mixing at all. I do think we mix  as the precip gets list after the majority of snow has fell.

 

If we do stay all snow then the amounts will go up. Have to love living near the coast.

Always on needles lol

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I especially wouldn't trust crappy GFS with thermal profiles. I think maybe 3k nam would be best to look at thermals. There will definitely be mixing and/or dry slot NYC metro. 

[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:10 PM, HeadInTheClouds said:

I especially wouldn't trust crappy GFS with thermal profiles. I think maybe 3k nam would be best to look at thermals. There will definitely be mixing and/or dry slot NYC metro. 

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The euro is even all snow for NYC

[Tatamy]

Just checked some Penndot cameras in south central PA.  Snow is moving into the Harrisburg area and is coming down steadily along I-81 in south central PA.

https://www.511pa.com/CameraListing.aspx?OpenPage

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:01 PM, bluewave said:

The 12NAM has the famous wall of snow sig.

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I remember a system years ago that has a south to north moving band with 4”/hour rates. It Moved relatively quickly but was incredible. 

[jm1220]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:11 PM, MJO812 said:

The euro is even all snow for NYC

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The mesoscale models like the Nam should capture the warm air aloft better, although the Euro’s resolution should also allow it to be captured I’d think. But I’ve seen it be too cold before in a couple of storms in 2017-18. This could be different? The NAM has a lousy evolution for the 700mb low which allows warm air to get as far north aloft as it does. I’m not sure what the Euro does with it. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:11 PM, MJO812 said:

The euro is even all snow for NYC

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  On 12/16/2020 at 4:11 PM, MJO812 said:

The euro is even all snow for NYC

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I still think it will mix as precip shuts off after intitial burst, then back to some snow later on as low heads east. I don't think anybody in NYC metro sees above 10 inches except maybe Northern Manhattan/Bronx/Yonkers. 

[jm1220]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:15 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I remember a system years ago that has a south to north moving band with 4”/hour rates. It Moved relatively quickly but was incredible. 

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If that fronto band on the Nam is real, we’ll have huge snow rates under it, probably 3” per hour. It seems to last 2-3 hours under any location. 

[nycsnow]

15z hrrrrr looks good so far all snow through 01z

[nycsnow]

The low is further s/e on 15z hrr a bit 

[friedmators]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:16 PM, jm1220 said:

If that fronto band on the Nam is real, we’ll have huge snow rates under it, probably 3” per hour. It seems to last 2-3 hours under any location. 

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Yea it seems like we need the WAA to really give us the bulk of our snow.  Not sure we can count on a re-moistening of the atmosphere post DS.

[nesussxwx]

HRRR initialized a bit too cold for the DC area. would be careful using it. got burned in March '17 using it till the last minute

[Jt17]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:18 PM, nycsnow said:

15z hrrrrr looks good so far all snow through 01z

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Can you post the maps?

[mikem81]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:11 PM, MJO812 said:

The euro is even all snow for NYC

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Its hard to take you seriously with the "super weenie" title. We all know what you want to happen. Need to look at actual observations at this point and see what is going on with HRRR

I find it encouraging that it is keeping the LP right on the coast of the CH Bay at 0Z tonight as opposed to 25 miles inland, but we shall see......

 

[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:20 PM, Jt17 said:

Can you post the maps?

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[nycsnow]

Clearly s/e

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:16 PM, jm1220 said:

If that fronto band on the Nam is real, we’ll have huge snow rates under it, probably 3” per hour. It seems to last 2-3 hours under any location. 

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If that would to occurs even coastal locations (excluding jersey shore) can throw up double digits 

[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:20 PM, mikem81 said:

Its hard to take you seriously with the "super weenie" title. We all know what you want to happen. Need to look at actual observations at this point and see what is going on with HRRR

I find it encouraging that it is keeping the LP right on the coast of the CH Bay at 0Z tonight as opposed to 25 miles inland, but we shall see......

 

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I'm just stating what the models show. HRRR got a little colder. 

[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:21 PM, nycsnow said:

Clearly s/e

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This precip is going to come in like a wall.

[nesussxwx]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:21 PM, nycsnow said:

Clearly s/e

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That looks worse for CNJ/Philly. More mixing

[jm1220]

  On 12/16/2020 at 4:21 PM, nycsnow said:

Clearly s/e

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We’re not as interested in the surface low track in this case as the mid level lows. Notice the sleet expanded inland into PA? That could be due to more aggressive mid level warming.