Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I'm thinking 6-9" for us, staying a little conservative. Maybe too much South Shore left in me. 

We'll need the heavy snow rates initially to hold off the warm air aloft. It can definitely happen but I think Upton's a little too high and the Euro too cold. 

Other areas: NJ shore less than 1" most places-NE winds off warm water are a killer. 

South Shore: 3-6", maybe 2-3" twin forks, also I-95 south of I-78 such as Trenton. Sleet comes in earlier here obviously and you deal with the ocean influence too so possibly some rain especially out east. Minor additional accum from CCB remnants. 

North Shore out to Wading River area and most of NYC: 6-9", more of the initial thump is snow, changes to sleet at the end of it. Freezes into cement after storm leaves and CCB remnant drops maybe 1-3" additional. Also 6-9" for I-78 corridor to PA border, 25 miles or more NW of I-95

Coastal CT, Westchester/Rockland, NJ I-80 and north 9-14", mostly snow with a little sleet possible at the closest the storm comes. Dryslot keeps amounts lower than further north. 

Orange, Putnam south of I-84, more than 25 miles away from CT coast, Sussex County NJ 14-18", all snow. Also dryslot may reach this area somewhat. 

Catskills, Poconos, I-84 corridor and north: 18-24" from deformation snow band and high ratios. 

 

I am also a Queens/Long Island guy. I know sleet all too well... In this setup you actually have the cold air bleeding in from the Northeast. Sleet might actually hit areas west of NYC before Long Island. Really all depends on the orientation of the upper level lows and exact track

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

If it snows at 3” an hour  for 4 hours that’s a foot of snow. There will be a massive wall of snow moving in the southern areas before a change over, which may not even occur

I don't think anyone down here is getting 3" per hour rates for four hours. Maybe very briefly during the peak. Do you have any concept as to how rare 3" per hour rates for 4 straight hours is? We don't have good dynamics, just basic warm air advection. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

I am also a Queens/Long Island guy. I know sleet all too well... In this setup you actually have the cold air bleeding in from the Northeast. Sleet might actually hit areas west of NYC before Long Island. Really all depends on the orientation of the upper level lows and exact track

If the NAM is right the sleet may get up to around I-78 before hitting a wall there for a while in the heavy rates, and maybe hug the extreme south shore of LI. We'll see how it plays. 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If the NAM is right the sleet may get up to around I-78 before hitting a wall there for a while in the heavy rates, and maybe hug the extreme south shore of LI. We'll see how it plays. 

You’ll do better than you think. I’ve snowed for 2-3 hours after south shore changed over 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I don't think anyone down here is getting 3" per hour rates for four hours. Maybe very briefly during the peak. Do you have any concept as to how rare 3" per hour rates for 4 straight hours is? We don't have good dynamics, just basic warm air advection. 

This would absolutely indicate huge snow rates where this purple fronto band is located. Not sure how long it'll be in one place but it'll be coming down like crazy there. This is 3z tomorrow (10pm tonight) 

 

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

You should be good for 2-4

I would think more than that. The Arthur Kill is not really the coast. If it's 2-4 here than it's not gonna be a whole lot more until you get further inland and higher. That would mean even Newark and areas would be less than 6. I've missed a few runs during errands maybe it all turned to crap on the models since this morning.

[MJO812]

Fwiw GFS is all snow and a long duration

12+ for NYC with less towards the south coast but still a nice snowstorm.

 

 

[weatherpruf]

23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

If it flips that fast, it will flip for a lot of other people north of that faster too. Seen it so many times it's ridiculous. This would end up being a couple inches of sleet in the city and get higher as you move north and west. But even a lot of North Jersey would flip, so they wouldn't get those huge numbers either. 

[krisb]

Long time lurker, rare poster here.

I'm in southeast Nassau in Seaford, two blocks from the bay. I know NWS has us in the 8-12 band - I'll be happy if we get 3-6. Seen this movie too many times. Hope I'm wrong. Cheers - good luck everyone. 

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Fwiw GFS is all snow and a long duration

12+ for NYC with less towards the south coast but still a nice snowstorm.

 

 

Sigh. We really don't know what to expect, but I would bet the farm that's too high. Is that site ever right? I think I've seen these maps verify exactly once, Jan 2016....I'm sure there were others but that one IIRC sticks out....

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Fwiw GFS is all snow and a long duration

12+ for NYC with less towards the south coast but still a nice snowstorm.

 

 

Finally got rid of that crazy coastal precip max thing but has a nice CCB headed east. The 700 and 850 low tracks actually aren't horrible on the GFS. The close surface low tries to flip the south shore to rain for a time (Atlantic City at 6z makes it to the mid 50s almost), still not much mid level warming here (I believe the NAM much more on that). 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Sigh. We really don't know what to expect, but I would bet the farm that's too high. Is that site ever right? I think I've seen these maps verify exactly once, Jan 2016....I'm sure there were others but that one IIRC sticks out....

Uh ? 

[weatherpruf]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This would absolutely indicate huge snow rates where this purple fronto band is located. Not sure how long it'll be in one place but it'll be coming down like crazy there. This is 3z tomorrow (10pm tonight) 

 

And that line is of course, just about over my house...well I cornered the market on leftover snowblowers, I have , count em, 5 snowblowers sitting in the yard in various states of operational capacity at this time. I may unload a few; I've heard so much bad about Craftsman I think I will unload them first....

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

If it flips that fast, it will flip for a lot of other people north of that faster too. Seen it so many times it's ridiculous. This would end up being a couple inches of sleet in the city and get higher as you move north and west. But even a lot of North Jersey would flip, so they wouldn't get those huge numbers either. 

I agree the bust potential is huge. 

Of course what happens there doesn't necessarily mean it'll happen here.

Side note I'm starting to think the backside stuff is real. Models leaning more on an intense band of snow developing as the storm slowly pulls east. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Finally got rid of that crazy coastal precip max thing but has a nice CCB headed east. The 700 and 850 low tracks actually aren't horrible on the GFS. The close surface low tries to flip the south shore to rain for a time, still not much mid level warming here (I believe the NAM much more on that). 

It snows all day tomorrow on the gfs . Similiar to Euro.

 

Area gets hit with the low today and then the low when it scoots east.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? 

I see that pivotal weather a lot....the maps never seem to be right. Maybe I'm just biased.

[mikem81]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Fwiw GFS is all snow and a long duration

12+ for NYC with less towards the south coast but still a nice snowstorm.

 

 

Posted a 10:1 snow map for a storm that has mid level temp issues is criminally negligent.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It snows all day tomorrow on the gfs . Similiar to Euro.

 

Area gets hit with the low today and then the low when it scoots east.

So GFS and Euro. Not bad odds. But at odds with some knowledgeable people here. At least in our neck of the woods.

[Maureen]

18 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

You should be good for 2-4

Here in Carteret, not very far from there, so I am guessing the numbers might be similar for us?

 

 

[dmillz25]

34 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think Northern Manhattan, Northern Queens and the Bronx are going to get close to 10". I don't see how SI, Southern Queens, Lower Manhattan or Brooklyn gets to 10" without a big surprise. 

Northern bk has this weird microclimate that tends to get about the same like places like the bx

[dave0176]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I see that pivotal weather a lot....the maps never seem to be right. Maybe I'm just biased.

I’m with you we see it every year. Every time these models show any layer of warmth it’s like they get sucked right up the Raritan bay.

[NJwx85]

16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This would absolutely indicate huge snow rates where this purple fronto band is located. Not sure how long it'll be in one place but it'll be coming down like crazy there. This is 3z tomorrow (10pm tonight) 

 

But that band isn't stationary. It progresses North and then the dry slot comes in right afterwards. Yes, it's going to snow heavily, just think people need to curb expectations some. Hope I'm wrong. If NYC gets 14" it probably means that I get over 20".

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Northern bk has this weird microclimate that tends to get about the same like places like the bx

I think 4-8 for my area in south Brooklyn unless we get into the crazy bands like this one as it heads out.

[SleetStormNJ]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Fwiw GFS is all snow and a long duration

12+ for NYC with less towards the south coast but still a nice snowstorm.

 

 

 

That swath through NJ into metro is most definitely including a decent amount of sleet I think.

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Posted a 10:1 snow map for a storm that has mid level temp issues is criminally negligent.

Yeah you definitely want to post the Kuchera ratio maps instead, which Pivotal Weather has.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

14 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

If it flips that fast, it will flip for a lot of other people north of that faster too. Seen it so many times it's ridiculous. This would end up being a couple inches of sleet in the city and get higher as you move north and west. But even a lot of North Jersey would flip, so they wouldn't get those huge numbers either. 

This is ridiculous. What is happening down there will have very little effect up here. We are right next to the cold air source 

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

But that band isn't stationary. It progresses North and then the dry slot comes in right afterwards. Yes, it's going to snow heavily, just think people need to curb expectations some. Hope I'm wrong. If NYC gets 14" it probably means that I get over 20".

It’s not only moving but those 10:1 ratio snow maps being posted are severely overdone, they are counting sleet as snow. You are going to get mixing, there’s a mid-level warm nose punching in.....

[NJwx85]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It snows all day tomorrow on the gfs . Similiar to Euro.

 

Area gets hit with the low today and then the low when it scoots east.

What? This is how much precip falls between 12z and 18z. After 18z nothing. So even if it does hold on it's over by early afternoon at the latest.

[winterwx21]

Everything looks on track for 8 to 12 inches of snow here I think. HRRR certainly looks good too, which is a good sign.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What? This is how much precip falls between 12z and 18z. After 18z nothing. So even if it does hold on it's over by early afternoon at the latest.

Most of the morning I should have said