Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[weatherlogix]

8 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Arw and NMM are wild but are they even reliable lol

I believe they are the main members of the SREF's

[Sn0waddict]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HDRDPS now doesn’t show sleet either.  Just flips area to light rain or dry slot at 06z 

It practically touches Long Beach island as well. Most NW model I have seen. Also has a wild coastal front.

[nesussxwx]

Just now, weatherlogix said:

I believe they are the main members of the SREF's

Nice to look at but usually aren't reliable. I think the guy who posted it thinks it's a supreme model.

[wizard021]

Just now, nesussxwx said:

Dude. Are you really taking this model verbatim? Lol

I follow the models that support my overall thinking. The people who go model to model are model casting.

You develop a thinking of how it develops, then see if any model matches it. I see the low being more east due to the blocking.  Plus a lack of a pna argues this wont be that ampified. 

[weatherlogix]

5 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

CMC is all snow for Manhattan. Temperatures stay below freezing the whole entire time at surface 700’s and 850’s. Great trend

are you sure? im too lazy to start looking at Skew-T's and soundings....but I think the GGEM was horrid

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HDRDPS now doesn’t show sleet either.  Just flips area to light rain or dry slot at 06z 

 

[nesussxwx]

Just now, JoshSnow said:

Brodie how did it outperform anything the storm didn’t happen. Wait until Thursday in my opinion it’s been the most reliable model for the city, now if you’re talking about Boston and Albany it’s different. 

Precipitation will begin to fall in DC by 10:30 AM, 4 PM by NYC most likely. If the GFS was anywhere near correct as to what it showed yesterday we'd know by now, less than 24 hours till the onset.

[weatherlogix]

2 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

Nice to look at but usually aren't reliable. I think the guy who posted it thinks it's a supreme model.

yeah, they are worthless

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, JoshSnow said:

Brodie how did it outperform anything the storm didn’t happen. Wait until Thursday in my opinion it’s been the most reliable model for the city, now if you’re talking about Boston and Albany it’s different. 

You can’t only go by one location to judge a models performance. Just because the gfs flipped nyc from the northern edge of the heavy snow to the southern edge so the totals haven’t changed much doesn’t mean it’s done well with the storm. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Brodie how did it outperform anything the storm didn’t happen. Wait until Thursday in my opinion it’s been the most reliable model for the city, now if you’re talking about Boston and Albany it’s different. 

If you really think it has done a good job with the evolution of this storm to this point then I don't know what to tell ya. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

It practically touches Long Beach island as well. Most NW model I have seen. Also has a wild coastal front.

Yup, absolutely wicked. At one point it shows JFK at 32, Fire Island near 50. It practically crawls along the NJ and then LI barrier islands.

[David-LI]

33 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Issued 30 minutes ago.

Really rooting for philly. They haven’t had decent snow in years 

[nesussxwx]

12 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

I follow the models that support my overall thinking. The people who go model to model are model casting.

You develop a thinking of how it develops, then see if any model matches it. I see the low being more east due to the blocking.  Plus a lack of a pna argues this wont be that ampified. 

You and Josh are ween-ing all over the place tonight. You are following an unreliable model which is rarely ever considered in the meteorology world, it's simply looked at.

The upper-levels don't mean as much because the cyclone is steered by the mid-levels. However,  so far on the 0z NAM, and 0z HRRR we can see there's been somewhat of a de-amplification with lower heights and that could be because of the recon data coming in. If that trend continues we'll see ticks SE. So that's where the upper-levels can have some significance.

The mesos are better at picking up short-term mid-level amplification and so far the RGEM, and 3k NAM see an amplification in the mid-level forcing which is steering the cyclone further north, that should not be ignored. I still believe mixing is somewhat likely from Philly into the City.

[MJO812]

 

[wizard021]

Take a look at the lifting on the nam 00z to 03z, thats the strongest fronto I have ever seen. 3 - 4 inch hour totals for sure north of the snow - sleet line. I got a hunch it stays by Monmouth county and I might get jackpots.

[F5TornadoF5]

[Snowlover11]

12 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said:

tucked

[nycsnow]

5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

tucked

Hard to tell the L is so big they need to use a smaller L lol

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

tucked

East of 12z

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Hard to tell the L is so big they need to use a smaller L lol

May be chasing convection to the east, and/or model just has a hard time figuring out where to place the low.

[TriPol]

Is the UKMet even worth looking at less than 24 hours until the event?

[Nibor]

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, weatherlogix said:

A complete disaster

I'm assuming it's similar to it's last few runs where it gives big snows up north to Albany and is warm on the coast just by seeing how tucked the low is. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

I'm assuming it's similar to it's last few runs where it gives big snows up north to Albany and is warm on the coast just by seeing how tucked the low is. 

Its almost identical. If anything a hair east and snowier around the city 

[Sn0waddict]

That track looks good to me. Similar to the NAM.

[F5TornadoF5]

[weatherlogix]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I'm assuming it's similar to it's last few runs where it gives big snows up north to Albany and is warm on the coast just by seeing how tucked the low is. 

It wasn't that bad, so I deleted my post because it was misleading

[kat5hurricane]

I don't see any major changes with the 0z suite but what's interesting to me is that dry slot showing up in west central Jersey and a strip of heavier snow bleeding down from the Hudson Valley to the northern part of the city. I don't ever recall seeing a snowmap with that look before so close to an event, on multiple models.

Overall, still looks like a 4-8 inch sort of deal in the immediate metro.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I don't see any major changes with the 0z suite but what's interesting to me is that dry slot showing up in west central Jersey and a strip of heavier snow bleeding down from the Hudson Valley to the northern part of the city. I don't ever recall seeing a snowmap with that look before so close to an event, on multiple models.

Overall, still looks like a 4-8 inch sort of deal in the immediate metro.

Those amounts will be closer to the south shore.  All the models show a wall of snow coming into the area tomorrow then changing to sleet for some then back to snow.  If the snow doesn't change to sleet we can see alot more snow. 

Going to be an interesting day  tomorrow 

[nycsnow]

Euro running