Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[justinj]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Upton's point and click-lol. Maybe an inch at Captree-a 30 minute drive from me and about 15 miles away. Here, "most likely" snow is at 11" and point/click has 8-14". Long Beach "most likely" is 3" and JFK 10 miles away 11". Wonder why NW Suffolk wasn't included in the warning then? 

My guess for my backyard is still 6-7" of snow and gunk. Hopefully I'm being conservative. I can see it being a few inches if these awful NAM runs are right, or if it's a miracle like this Euro run seems to be, could be 12". 

NW Suffolk seems to always jackpot on Long Island..I am expecting 3-6” here in holbrook

[Cheticus]

27 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It’s extreme, has it ever been that drastic before? 

I've lived in both areas and it happens very often.  The extreme north shore has elevations approaching 200 feet and that's where you see the enhanced snowfalls.  South shore, especially this time of the year, has warm ocean waters making a mess of things.

[Rjay]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I was in Fort Lauderdale for it.  I finally remembered that 

I think it was 10" the morning of the 13th and 2" late night or the next morning.   Anyway, back to this storm. 

[uncle W]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The whole pattern is mismatched. Record early month +PNA spike for moderate La Niña. Sudden appearance of blocking over the North Pole in the short term. +AAM and record warm +PMM NP SSTs with a moderate La Niña. Record Arctic warmth and low sea ice. So this storm looks like a microcosm of all the competing influences. The old analogs just don’t work for this new climate.

after this is over we'll probably find an analog storm for it...the problem is it hasn't happened yet...

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, Cheticus said:

I've lived in both areas and it happens very often.  The extreme north shore has elevations approaching 200 feet and that's where you see the enhanced snowfalls.  South shore, especially this time of the year, has warm ocean waters making a mess of things.

Monmouth county is like that; it has some fairly elevated areas just in from the coast; they often get better amounts when the coast is cold enough.

[Sn0waddict]

8 minutes ago, ChickenMan888 said:

Woah, what happened? All the snow totals dropped

They actually went up compared to 18z

[mweisenfeld]

9 minutes ago, ChickenMan888 said:

Woah, what happened? All the snow totals dropped

What happened is the HRRR is not particularly accurate at this time range.

[T5403CG]

No.  1/7/94 there were some places on the very far north shore that got like 5 inches of snow while the south shore was FZRA all day but that’s closest example I know  

Yes. 

Live in West Islip, south shore... In Commack, 5-8 miles north, they received 12" of snow @ 32f while it was all rain by me@ 34f...

 

It did eventually change over and we got about 20" of snow... Commack through Centereach got 32"+...

 

 

 

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[Meteoropoulos]

15 minutes ago, ChickenMan888 said:

Woah, what happened? All the snow totals dropped

This is only through 5am Thursday morning. More snow to come!

[HVSnowLover]

NAM looks great so far

[Sn0waddict]

This does indeed look better so far.

[SI Mailman]

dryslot approaching the city at 3z

[Northof78]

Wow on the NAM...actually looks like N NJ and NYC in one of the better zones overall again....further S/E and colder...1.5”+ LE for most...

[MJO812]

Nam has sleet into NYC after a heavy thump.

The low is well southeast of 18z

[Northof78]

Most models now seem to be honing in on another band/max precip axis in NE NJ/NYC/W LI

[Barman49]

NAM is better even with that sleet mixed in.  No dry slot & SE.

[Sn0waddict]

Wow much better for coastal ct and Hudson valley. Maybe an hour of sleet at the most and no dry slot.

[Snowlover11]

tons of sleet into nyc, areas north and west are golden on the nam.

[HVSnowLover]

The best dynamics still go north of the city but a huge improvement over the last two runs 

[Barman49]

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

tons of sleet into nyc, areas north and west are golden on the nam.

Verbatim it's showing sleet for about 3 hours in the city   

[SI Mailman]

Just now, JoshSnow said:

That’s not true. Barely any sleet and this is a way colder run, southeast of its last run and you’ll see the snow maps momentarily no dry slot. This is going to be almost as good as the GFS. 

[nycsnow]

Still sick improvement awesome start to 00z

[Nibor]

[Northof78]

Maybe and hour or so of sleet/mix in the city, rest is snow...on what used to be the warmest/west model...excellent trend for the model over past 3-4 runs.

[RDRY]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam has sleet into NYC after a heavy thump.

The low is well southeast of 18z

The high-res'es like to jump around the low signature. Precip field looks similar to 18z, though definitely a smidge south which could really help the city.

[wxman]

Just now, Northof78 said:

Maybe and hour or so of sleet/mix in the city, rest is snow...on what used to be the warmest/west model...excellent trend for the model over past 3-4 runs.

I'd say more like 2-3 hrs sleet as depicted, but still moving in the right direction.

[JonClaw]

NAM @ HR29, 05Z

LGA Bayside Sounding

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Still sick improvement awesome start to 00z

Agree

[Sn0waddict]

3k is better too, which has been the warmest model to date. A few hours of sleet but it then crashes at hr 33