Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Honestly can’t believe this is actually going to end up cutting west....thought this was a cut and dry case of a well offshore low track given the setup and confluence. I was wrong. Such is the way of the world....

You’re being too hard on yourself. You were talking about a 50 mile shift over several days of tracking. Unfortunately for Long Island 50 miles makes all the difference especially with warm water

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, friedmators said:

The OP GFS low position @ 42 is west of every ensemble member. 

Similar with the Euro. Maybe 90% of the members are east of the OP.

Which is sort of funny but ensembles this close in can do funky stuff

[nesussxwx]

6 minutes ago, friedmators said:

The OP GFS low position @ 42 is west of every ensemble member. 

Similar with the Euro. Maybe 90% of the members are east of the OP.

the ens just follows the OP. yesterday it showed nothing for ALB

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

You’re being too hard on yourself. You were talking about a 50 mile shift over several days of tracking. Unfortunately for Long Island 50 miles makes all the difference especially with warm water

Good thing this forum is more than long island. Now back to our storm....the other nonsense can continue in banter.

[WeatherFox]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Well this has been a dagger to MOST of us.  obviously our north and west guys will do extremely well but once again we all got sucked in by the models(me included).

Exactly, snowstorms are extremely challenging to forecast in the details from several days out.  Board members follow the models, the analysis for the excitement but some will be disappointed in the end.

[BxEngine]

I wish people here analyzed the models as much as they analyze the posts and posters, we’d have an amazing thread....

[lee59]

31 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

And Santa was spotted by NORAD taking a test run of his sleigh last night. 

I guess that's the frustrated way of saying no

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Well this has been a dagger to MOST of us.  obviously our north and west guys will do extremely well but once again we all got sucked in by the models(me included).

So many components had to come together perfectly. And one fly in the ointment can screw everything up. In this case we have several flies

[Maureen]

I do understand, most of all in this absolute suckfest of a year, why people become invested in a storm like this. (yes, I am still calling it a storm!)

A lot of loss, a lot of heartache, and a nice December snowfall is just a little touch of magic.

Hope this works out for everyone, and rather than this being another disappointment in a year of disappointment that everyone wishing for snow ends up very pleasantly surprised.

 

 

[nycwinter]

i spent many nights staying up late to see what the euro said. i should not have gotten suckered into a storm unless it was absolute certain it would be a big snowstorm for the city

[White Gorilla]

26 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I wish people here analyzed the models as much as they analyze the posts and posters, we’d have an amazing thread....

Raising my hand being in the therapy profession... Group therapy thread will be available soon. 

[shadowsintherain]

i spent many nights staying up late to see what the euro said. i should not have gotten suckered into a storm unless it was absolute certain it would be a big snowstorm for the city

When is anything absolutely certain in the weather? Lol


.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Upstate people always stealing my snow not fair

lol

[mob1]

So much whining over something we have zero control over. Just hope for some small adjustments south in the next 24 hours but whatever happens, happens. 

[F5TornadoF5]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

i spent many nights staying up late to see what the euro said. i should not have gotten suckered into a storm unless it was absolute certain it would be a big snowstorm for the city

A little over a day ago, it seemed like NYC was in the sweet spot.  Every model while not the jackpot totals in most runs, depicted a scenario of 12+ for most runs. Still think it could have some small surprises.

[weatherbear5]

It’s painful. You look at the 24 hour panel on tidbits and it looks so glorious for the entire forum. If only it was 12 hours faster so as to not allow the blocking to escape 

[mikem81]

EURO has LP in mid virginia

[Blizzardo]

Here we go.... its Weast!

[NJwx85]

[friedmators]

Euro looks identical to 6Z.

[SI Mailman]

Euro does give a little glimmer of hope for some of the coast

[Uniblab]

Always keep expectations low! 

[Blizzardo]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

If that death band from NE PA into NY pivots through NJ on the way out, look out!! 

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Not awful nyc might cash in a bit on both front and back end. 

[NJwx85]

[kat5hurricane]

Can some people let the run finish instead of saying stuff like "Game Over" before it plays out? The Euro seems fine to me based on first look.

[Brian5671]

EURO!

[wxman]

Looks like euro is 10 plus for most of the forum except immediate coast, LOL, now watch it be wrong.  Not the king it used to be.

[HVSnowLover]

30 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

You’re being too hard on yourself. You were talking about a 50 mile shift over several days of tracking. Unfortunately for Long Island 50 miles makes all the difference especially with warm water

Agree it hasn’t shifted dramatically the main shift has been upper level low which is shifting the best banding further north and introducing sleet. Central Park and points nw I still think stays all frozen. 

[Maureen]

7 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Here we go.... its Weast!