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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

My friend just came back from the supermarket. He said it was insanely packed .

The media loves driving people insane.

Lets hope for the rest of the models to come out good 

It's 2020 and you live in NYC. Even if you get 30" of snow the roads will be cleared within 24 hours. 

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
Just now, Jt17 said:

image.png.46d1e9a659ddeaca3d4faeb9471d2615.png

Am I missing something? The most recent runs of the euro and gfs show 15+ inches for nyc with what I believe was no mixing issues. I understand the nam looks really messy, but the assertion that everything has trended to much smaller snow totals is simply false. The two major global models most recent runs say a huge storm is still possible. 

Agree perspective. NAM can overamp. Trend has been NW for sure but if it’s close to 0Z Euro most on here still in decent shape. 

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billgwx

billgwx

Posted
Posted

Want to see other guidance as amped/warm as the 12Z NAM cycles before jumping on it. Latest parallel GFS looked similar at H5 but was cold...oh wait the GFS is often too cold aloft. Anyway, the NAM amplification yesterday didn't appear to be due to convective feedback. But the model's not consistent run-to-run, 12Z'ers amped/warm and the other cycles colder. All that said, I didn't entirely discount the warmer idea yesterday and threw in some south shore/east end mixing for Long Island.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

image.png.46d1e9a659ddeaca3d4faeb9471d2615.png

Am I missing something? The most recent runs of the euro and gfs show 15+ inches for nyc with what I believe was no mixing issues. I understand the nam looks really messy, but the assertion that everything has trended to much smaller snow totals is simply false. The two major global models most recent runs say a huge storm is still possible. 

The Euro is also trending more amped aloft it seemed, but hasn’t reflected to the surface yet? Anyway let’s hope. 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

The NWS in Upton, NY has issued a WEENIE SUICIDE ALERT in affect immediately and until further notice. 12-18 snow weenies per hour will be cliff jumping over the next 24 hours. Please stay tuned to your local weather authority for the most updated information on this breaking story.

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kat5hurricane

kat5hurricane

Posted
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22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Which would be more in keeping with history. Honestly, these big totals really aren't normal for the NYC area, even in the dead of winter most years. We had some freakish winters in the 2000's. We've just seen two winters with hardly a flake. 3-6 will still be amazing. But of course, even that can fall apart, and I have seen that so many times...southeast winds, warm air aloft, etc all add up to not a big snow, or even any snow; could be all sleet. Seen it often, but it is usually better forecast than this. There have been too many calls for huge storms over the years for the city that just haven't come to fruition. That said, anything can still happen....

100%. Such is life on the coast where EVERYTHING has to align perfectly to get the big snows. Just another example of how utterly spoiled we were in the 2000s and even first half of the 2010s when 12+ inch storms were almost an annual occurrence, even several times a year. 

As disappointing as it is considering the way it looked a few days ago, 4-8 inches is a really good storm for us. Who knows, it might be the biggest storm of the year for us coasties.

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billgwx

billgwx

Posted
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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The NWS in Upton, NY has issued a WEENIE SUICIDE ALERT in affect immediately and until further notice. 12-18 snow weenies per hour will be cliff jumping over the next 24 hours. Please stay tuned to your local weather authority for the most updated information on this breaking story.

Fake news. We had to stop doing those when we stopped issuing Blizzard Watches :D

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

Just posted elsewhere that we need to see if this is "real" or not vs. the other models, i.e., whether there's some heretofore unseen parameter leading to all models trending this way or if it's just some flaw in the data input or model physics with the NAM. We'll know in a couple of hours. Just like one shouldn't overreact to a huge jump up in snowfall for one model (like the 40" RGEM the other day), one shouldn't overreact to one model slashing snowfall. Also, at this point, the NAM is often pretty good, so even if it's an outlier it can't be discounted.  As I said this morning, I did think Mt. Holly was too bullish on total snowfall, especially for the 95 corridor (12-18") and NWS-NYC was likely a better call with 8-14" of snow/sleet for NYC/95 corridor.

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SleetStormNJ

SleetStormNJ

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

We're really mostly concerned with the mid level lows not the surface low. If there's a strong 700mb low tracking through NE PA and the Hudson Valley, it won't matter much where the surface low is. It's a quick thump to a dryslot because dry/warm mid level air will be driven in from the south. 

Yeah - it is something showing up a bit on all to one extreme or the other - that's why you're seeing a huge slug of sleet in the precip depictions even into parts of south-central/SE PA.  Worth looking at tomorrow as the storm evolves and always a bit fun to track the handling of these lows.

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forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

everybody is doing a lot of short few word posts.... how about we post some images to justify the NW comments and etc.... 

agree. i just wait for the maps to come out on the better sites to do an analysis. "rgem is nw!" doesn't do anything for me

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