Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Barman49]

It probably hugs up until ACY and then goes east, similar to its last few runs I would think. 

Yeah need the rest of the frames. Hard to tell with just those two.

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[Rjay]

[MJO812]

Holy batman 

[Barman49]

Looks good with those.

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[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Holy batman 

[weatherbear5]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Holy batman 

Doesn’t mean diddly without knowing the thermals

as much as I would like it to be all snow

 

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said:

Doesn’t mean diddly without knowing the thermals

With that type of HP anchored in, thats a nice hard hit for the entire sub forum. 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said:

Doesn’t mean diddly without knowing the thermals

as much as I would like it to be all snow

 

Use this link around 12:20.   It doesn't have a lot of parameters and it's pretty awful but you'll be to see more than you can now. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/new-jersey/sea-level-pressure/20201218-0000z.html

[SACRUS]

UKIE

40MM / 1.55"

looks mostly snow nyc /winds strong too

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/PN_D5_TS_TT_P1_UV_UU_VV_METE_1000_NewYork.png

[Snowlover11]

total

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

UKIE

40MM / 1.55"

looks mostly snow nyc /winds strong too

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/PN_D5_TS_TT_P1_UV_UU_VV_METE_1000_NewYork.png

The problem is you can't see the important layers or the mid level lows. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

total

Thats a lot of snow up to like Saratoga. This model likes to give Albany 2 ft. 

[Rjay]

As of now, I really think this looks like a snow to sleet storm for Monmouth up to maybe ewr and east to nyc and LI.  A crusher for the rest of NNJ, Harrisburg to Scranton and the Hudson Valley. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

As of now, I really think this looks like a snow to sleet storm for Monmouth up to maybe ewr and east to nyc and LI.  A crusher for the rest of NNJ, Harrisburg to Scranton and the Hudson Valley. 

That's if there is any warming going on and how close the low comes.

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

As of now, I really think this looks like a snow to sleet storm for Monmouth up to maybe ewr and east to nyc and LI.  A crusher for the rest of NNJ, Harrisburg to Scranton and the Hudson Valley. 

Please not another Feb 2007 sleet storm.

[Nibor]

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

As of now, I really think this looks like a snow to sleet storm for Monmouth up to maybe ewr and east to nyc and LI.  A crusher for the rest of NNJ, Harrisburg to Scranton and the Hudson Valley. 

Based on Ukie? 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

992!!  Strongest by far

[Barman49]

UK

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[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Based on Ukie? 

Based on all the non-gfs guidance.  If the 700mb low goes over NYC we dry slot/snizzle/sleet.  

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

UK

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Nice for NYC west.  I thought it would be more.

Onto the Euro 

[Snowlover11]

ukie is about 15” for nyc.

[Nibor]

700 mb

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

ukie is about 15” for nyc.

I'm on the border of 15 and 6 lol

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

700 mb

Needs to be further south

[Nibor]

Barely closes off at 500 mb lol

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Nice for NYC west.  I thought it would be more.

Onto the Euro 

It's got nearly 30 inches near Albany, lol, and its been consistent with that for 4 runs now. Thats why consistency doesn't mean a model is right. 

[WarrenCtyWx]

The difference between the GFS and the UKie is absurd.

[kat5hurricane]

I think the GFS is out to lunch. The Nam, rgem, CMC and ukie all seem to be focusing on moving the heaviest snow further north. Looking more and more like warmer air and/or a dry slot cutting down on the totals at the coast after a good initial thump. 12-18 seems like a bit of a pipedream for the city now if trends continue.

Watch the Euro come up with a different solution now to throw it all out of whack just when it looks like a consensus starting to form.

[USCG RS]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

I think the GFS is out to lunch. The Nam, rgem, CMC and ukie all seem to be focusing on moving the heaviest snow further north. Looking more and more like warmer air and/or a dry slot cutting down on the totals at the coast after a good initial thump.

Watch the Euro come up with a different solution now to throw it all out of whack just when it looks like a consensus starting to form.

Yeah, what Doorman was hinting at last night and what has been a concern of mine for the past couple of days.