Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Soundings look comfortably all snow over NYC on 0Z/h51 Nam.  What are you looking at?

 

I think he means the south shore. Its sleet but the Nam just came south.

[SI Mailman]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Soundings look comfortably all snow over NYC on 0Z/h51 Nam.  What are you looking at?

 

[Barman49]

I think both the NAM & 3K are having some kind of issues.  The output doesn't make sense on the NAM and the 3k moves west around hour 50.  I wouldn't put much stock into it with either at this range.  If they do this tomorrow it would be more of an issue.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

700 low is near us. Need it further south but this is most likely snow.

2 minutes ago, Torch said:

Didn’t the nam do the same thing in 2016 leading up to the event.

Yes

[Barman49]

1 minute ago, SI Mailman said:

It's snow all around that one little blob that goes away on the next frame.  Probably not really sleet.

[weatherlogix]

24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM crushes the whole area except Jersey Coast. 

This was not a good run

[friedmators]

3k vs 12k

[weatherlogix]

Just now, MJO812 said:

He is right but everyone wins

It's not a good run for LI at a minimum...but I suspect a much larger area

[HeadInTheClouds]

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

This was not a good run

What’s wrong with it? 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

What’s wrong with it? 

This run was further south with everything 

[MJO812]

3k

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

3k

I don’t see why the band In pa would dry up so much with a coastal 

[SnoSki14]

Dang if only we had more of a PNA those crazy totals in PA would've been over our area. 

[weatherlogix]

You guys tell me the last time central PA and South Central NYS had a big snowstorm and it snowed for real here on LI. Something ain't right.

[jm1220]

Just now, MJO812 said:

3k

On the 3k like the 12k much of this is a front end thump. By 6z, it gets above 0C at 800mb on LI and probably NYC very briefly but it's barely precipitating (what's falling would be sleet). Something of a CCB comes through and cools the column back down. 

[wizard021]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Dang if only we had more of a PNA those crazy totals in PA would've been over our area. 

mayor lindsay storm and 1979 pd1 had no pna... pna doesn''t mean anything if energy can go underneath a block.

[weatherlogix]

1 minute ago, weatherlogix said:

You guys tell me the last time central PA and South Central NYS had a big snowstorm and it snowed for real here on LI. Something ain't right.

It's either wrong about how fast West those 24"+ totals are, or its wrong about places anywhere around or east of I-95

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, weatherlogix said:

You guys tell me the last time central PA and South Central NYS had a big snowstorm and it snowed for real here on LI. Something ain't right.

Jan 2016, Presidents Day 2003, 12/5/03 among others? 

A huge deformation band forms and pivots starting in South Central PA and drives north into W CT. That's the best place per the mid level dynamics and mid level low tracks on the Nam. Because those tracks are more lousy down here we get most of what we have from the initial warm air advection and then the leftover CCB coming east. Also it warms aloft: per soundings we wouldn't lose much to sleet-but would be close. 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, weatherlogix said:

It's either wrong about how fast West those 24"+ totals are, or its wrong about places anywhere around or east of I-95

The confluence is very strong, rarely do storms track due east which would explain how central PA and LI could both do well. I’m skeptical of heavy snow making into south central NY. 

[MJO812]

Rgem looks nice

[sferic]

Does anyone have info ( graphics) on a major snowstorm from Dec 25/26th 2002 and a week later another one one Jan 3rd 2003?

 

Thanks !

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, wizard021 said:

mayor lindsay storm and 1979 pd1 had no pna... pna doesn''t mean anything if energy can go underneath a block.

A PNA would force this storm further east. 

The block is strong but not strong enough.

[NorthShoreWx]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Problem is really the dryslot this run for NYC and east. The 700mb low track should be a little further SE. It looks like a 3-5 hour crazy thump up front, light snow/sleet/mix in that dryslot, then whatever can come from the CCB as it slides east. There's 1-1.5" liquid for this area but 2"+ in a band from Torrington CT to State College, PA. That's where the huge totals would be. 

Precisely.  NAM soundings IMBY show snow through hour 54.  Then light sleet with a little drizzle for an hour or so after that and back to all snow for the duration.  The mixed precip occurs with the dryslot.

[weatherlogix]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Jan 2016, Presidents Day 2003, 12/5/03 among others? 

A huge deformation band forms and pivots starting in South Central PA and drives north into W CT. That's the best place per the mid level dynamics and mid level low tracks on the Nam. Because those tracks are more lousy down here we get most of what we have from the initial warm air advection and then the leftover CCB coming east. Also it warms aloft: per soundings we wouldn't lose much to sleet-but would be close. 

Lol to the Dec 2003 mention. That was a NE event. And Jan 2016 show distribution looks ZERO like this in NYS or central PA

I'll give you Feb 2003, but that was mid winter with very low temps. But not really an analog

[shadowsintherain]

Lol to the Dec 2003 mention. That was a NE event. And Jan 2016 show distribution looks ZERO like this in NYS or central PA
I'll give you Feb 2003, but that was mid winter with very low temps. But not really an analog

Ahh, yes. The Pamela Anderson storm? ;-)


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[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Lol to the Dec 2003 mention. That was a NE event. And Jan 2016 show distribution looks ZERO like this in NYS or central PA

I'll give you Feb 2003, but that was mid winter with very low temps. But not really an analog

Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

Not to drag this off topic anymore but much of the state of PA had 8-12". Not saying that's an analog or any of these storms, but it's definitely possible to have heavy snow in Central PA, southern NYS and here. 

[shadowsintherain]

Ahh, yes. The Pamela Anderson storm? ;-)


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Actually wait, wasn’t that in March 2003?


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[dave0176]

14 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

It's either wrong about how fast West those 24"+ totals are, or its wrong about places anywhere around or east of I-95

I say screw zone is south of Elizabeth and east of Edison, because live there, however every one of these events brings me the screw zone.

[weatherlogix]

8 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Lol to the Dec 2003 mention. That was a NE event. And Jan 2016 show distribution looks ZERO like this in NYS or central PA

I'll give you Feb 2003, but that was mid winter with very low temps. But not really an analog

Not to mention 2003 was a closed low as was 2016