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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020


wdrag
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  On 12/14/2020 at 5:39 PM, jm1220 said:

Impossible to really say without surface temp charts and the 700/850 low tracks. The surface low tracks pretty close to best case scenario IMO for heavy snow but maybe the 700/850 lows are a lot further NW. 

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Too busy at work to look deeper.  Use this link and post what you find.

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/new-jersey/sea-level-pressure/20201218-0000z.html

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  On 12/14/2020 at 5:36 PM, weatherbear5 said:

It ain’t lack of precip. 1.5-2.0+ inches liquid from Tappan Zee East.

Some kinda sneaky warm layer

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models never have proper graphic representation for long island p-types.  we have a fairly predictable microclimate that those who live here are familiar with.  this is a perfect setup for long island west of route 112 and north of sunrise highway.  winds stay north of due east at it's worst, and gain a more northerly component as the storm tracks ene.

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  On 12/14/2020 at 5:47 PM, HVSnowLover said:

Ratios lower on the coast on ukie due to surface temps and possibly lack of banding. I still say gfs/ukie are both playing catch-up in opposite directions.

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Agree 100%. They have both been on crack for different reasons. Thats why I have been saying Euro/CMC blend best way to go. 

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  On 12/14/2020 at 5:44 PM, Rjay said:

Too busy at work to look deeper.  Use this link and post what you find.

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/new-jersey/sea-level-pressure/20201218-0000z.html

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Thanks. Didn’t see charts with mid level low tracks but overall looks a little warm for a track like that both at the surface and at 850mb. The 850 zero line makes it to about I-195 I’d say. Surface temps also look a little warm. 1-1.5” liquid for NYC and Long Island, less than 1” north of the Tappan Zee I’d guess. 
 

Edit disregard the less than 1” liquid amounts north of the Tappan Zee, was looking at the wrong chart. Plenty of liquid up to I-90. 

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  On 12/14/2020 at 5:54 PM, jm1220 said:

Thanks. Didn’t see charts with mid level low tracks but overall looks a little warm for a track like that both at the surface and at 850mb. The 850 zero line makes it to about I-195 I’d say. Surface temps also look a little warm. 1-1.5” liquid for NYC and Long Island, less than 1” north of the Tappan Zee I’d guess. 
 

Edit disregard the less than 1” liquid amounts north of the Tappan Zee, was looking at the wrong chart. Plenty of liquid up to I-90. 

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Thanks.  I never checked.  Pivotalweather has it

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=700th&rh=2020121412&fh=6&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

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  On 12/14/2020 at 4:55 PM, wdrag said:

watch for sleet LI and s of I80 which is treated like 10 to 1 in the snow ratios...bad news for southern edge if sleet develops. Those 10 to 1 ratios won't work with sleet involved... slash by ~2/3rds once the sleet develops. 

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I really don't see sleet being much of an issue honestly. Once the coastal develops it should flip the winds around to northeasterly and you will have some dynamic cooling as the low slowly deepens. This storm reminds me so much of a slightly more progressive version of PDII. It even looks similar at H5.

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  On 12/14/2020 at 6:08 PM, weatherbear5 said:

Euro is gonna be interesting... a few conflicting signals... higher heights along the east coast, but the 50/50 low is in a better spot which should, in theory, help to better lock the high in place

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It looks like it’s south and east to me. Hard to tell with the 24 hr panels.

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