Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Heisy]

Gfs is a joke. I live in philly you’d think I’d be happy. I’d rather it be the other way around. All I care about is the NAM within 36 hours and the euro. I look at other models for amusement. 

[MJO812]

Gefs says the op run is an outlier

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 72 and 120 hours, it ranks somewhat ahead of the GFS on 500 mb verification scores.

Lol.  They flip back and forth but they both kinda suck.  

[kat5hurricane]

The GFS almost always plays catch up in big events like this and has at least one run that's an outlier closer to the event. I wouldn't put much stock into it and will bet anything that it will bump north eventually.

[Mitchel Volk]

Add of the models together it looks like the I95 cities are in for a possible blizzard

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I mostly dismiss the GFS for this storm but I'd be lying if I said it didn't make me just a little nervous. You hope it's not one of those times one particular model picks up on something a couple of runs before the others. And if it does somehow verify, I will cry real tears.

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

The GFS almost always plays catch up in big events like this and has at least one run that's an outlier closer to the event. I wouldn't put much stock into it and will bet anything that it will bump north eventually.

It's had 4 straight outlier runs ironically after it had the most tucked in NW run of any model yesterday at 18Z. I have no idea what to make of the gfs. 

[SI Mailman]

Here's the CMC clown map

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Mitchel Volk said:

Add of the models together it looks like the I95 cities are in for a possible blizzard

Yeah it looks really good right now. There's a 50/50 chance the immediate NYC metro ends up jackpotting. 

Some of the outputs are really impressive. You have the CMC, Euro, Rgem showing 20-24"+ totals now.

That's not something that should be taken lightly. And the wind threat is real with the tight gradient.

[Nibor]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

Here's the CMC clown map

[Sn0waddict]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs says the op run is an outlier

They are definitely more tucked than 18z ensembles but the north progression is still not there before they get kicked east.

[MJO812]

Get this to track further east so we can get the huge totals out west 

[sferic]

My worst nightmare is a western trend bringing the low right up the Hudson River or western LI like March 2017

I'll be happier with tomorrow night's 00z runs but looking good so far

[ForestHillWx]

On the cmc clowns I’m located in that dark blue finger protruding into north west NJ... neat. (Ha, long way to go; for posterity only). 

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I mostly dismiss the GFS for this storm but I'd be lying if I said it didn't make me just a little nervous. You hope it's not one of those times one particular model picks up on something a couple of runs before the others. And if it does somehow verify, I will cry real tears.

There's definitely going to be a super sharp cutoff somewhere on the northern fridge.  That high is no joke.  If I had to guess it'd probably be near or north of Poughkeepsie.   That's obviously not set in stone though. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I mostly dismiss the GFS for this storm but I'd be lying if I said it didn't make me just a little nervous. You hope it's not one of those times one particular model picks up on something a couple of runs before the others. And if it does somehow verify, I will cry real tears.

Don't worry, its way off. It has absolutely no support and the chances of other models caving to gfs are low. The opposite will likely happen. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, sferic said:

My worst nightmare is a western trend bringing the low right up the Hudson River or western LI like March 2017

I'll be happier with tomorrow night's 00z runs but looking good so far

High is too powerful. This wouldn't get north of AC in the worst case and it's more likely to stay just south of Cape May. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

There's definitely goimg to be a super sharp cutoff somewhere on the northern fridge.  That high is no joke.  If I had to guess it'd probably be near Poughkeepsie.   That's obviously not set in stone though. 

I think its more like I90 not I84. 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, sferic said:

My worst nightmare is a western trend bringing the low right up the Hudson River or western LI like March 2017

I'll be happier with tomorrow night's 00z runs but looking good so far

I can promise you this won't happen here.  It literally can't.   It can only come so far north until it's forced east.  Exactly where that happens is the key to every weenie's snow hopes.  

[Rjay]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

I think its more like I90 not I84. 

We'll see.  I hope you're right.  

[Rjay]

Just south of the cutoff will be crushed.  

[MJO812]

[kat5hurricane]

10 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It's had 4 straight outlier runs ironically after it had the most tucked in NW run of any model yesterday at 18Z. I have no idea what to make of the gfs. 

Yeah, I suppose it has been pretty consistent with the suppressed look but it's a big outlier and I've seen many times when the gfs has been suppressed only to correct north towards the other models as the event nears. When was the last time the gfs scored a coup for a major event when it was the lone outlier?

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Get this to track further east so we can get the huge totals out west 

Hell no 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Lock it in baby.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hell no 

Looking good man

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Lock it in baby.

Rgem has the huge totals over NYC 

We will not know where the banding will set up until the storm gets going. 

[jdj5211]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I would sign up for no more storms this entire winter to see 3 feet of snow in my yard....no questions asked! 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thats CMC factoring in ratios?

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Lock it in baby.

I'm ok with that.  I just think it's way too generous up by Albany.  The gradient should tighten up a lot on the models in the next couple of days.  If I'm wrong,  so be it.