Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[weatherbear5]

9 minutes ago, David-LI said:

NAM IS DIGGING! LETS GO!

Careful what you wish for.

Trough axis is definitely further west than 18z so far

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said:

Careful what you wish for.

Trough axis is definitely further west than 18z so far

Low is almost in Mexico 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said:

Careful what you wish for.

Trough axis is definitely further west than 18z so far

Huge Hit 

[friedmators]

Sneaky warm layer @ 700 still over some parts.

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Huge Hit 

No way you have it that far

 

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, David-LI said:

No way you have it that far

 

Run is over. It's fine for the coast although crushes interior more. 

[David-LI]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Run is over. It's fine for the coast although crushes interior more. 

What website is this?

[NJsnow89]

This run crushes SNE!

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

Just now, David-LI said:

What website is this?

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=nam&area=conus&cycle=20201214 00 UTC&param=850_700_thick&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1&skip_num=1

[Zelocita Weather]

2 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

This run crushes SNE!

Not really, 6-12”

[Mitchel Volk]

NAM is useless until it less than 54 hrs.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Crusher for interior. Gives me 24. GFS up next to give me 2. 

[jdj5211]

It appears to be starting later now, no?  Looking like a late Wednesday start for NYC and finishing up Thursday morning. Most falls during overnight hours which is even better for accumulation and temps, no? 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

It appears to be starting later now, no?  Looking like a late Wednesday start for NYC and finishing up Thursday morning. Most falls during overnight hours which is even better for accumulation and temps, no? 

This time of year time of day doesn't really matter 

[MJO812]

Icon shifted south 

[Rjay]

RGEM is the first real model up.   But it's still out of it's good range.  

[Rjay]

Holy crap RGEM

[Stormlover74]

Crushed 

[Rjay]

[MJO812]

Kuchera  lol

[hooralph]

Just now, Rjay said:

Lol at the jackpot literally over NYC.

[SI Mailman]

lol, I was looking at the 18z and trying to figure out why I wasn't getting the same maps.  Wowzers.  

[weatherlogix]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Kuchera  lol

Yeah, let's lock that one in now

[wizard021]

Just now, weatherlogix said:

Yeah, let's lock that one in now

32.2 inches looks good to me.

[SI Mailman]

Just now, weatherlogix said:

Yeah, let's lock that one in now

30 inches at my house would match Boxing Day which I jackpotted in.  

[TriPol]

Well, it was nice knowing you all. BECS.

[jdj5211]

Awesome start!  Here comes GFS!  Can we go 2 for 2 and then EURO 3 for 3?!  

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

30 inches at my house would match Boxing Day which I jackpotted in.  

I got the same

[weatherbear5]

With the NAM, I reviewed the Skew-T's for some sneaky warm-layers.

We need to keep an eye on the 725-775 MB levels near the coast, as that is where it will go above freezing, if at all.

I pulled a point over LI for reference, and while the 18z briefly got that layer above freezing, the 00z never did, so it was definitively colder with no (or very, very minimal) sleet on Central LI. 

I saw the RGEM is a monster hit as well.

Models always underdo CAD at the surface... though they also tend to underdo mid-level warming, so that's definitely something to keep a close eye on

[The Plowsman]

4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

No thanks.

I'll take the snow with less wind and keep my power. Nothing worse than sitting through a blizzard in a dark cold house.

Generac.