Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[MJO812]

Time to break out the SREF. It has been a while.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We are not the general public. Rip that band aid off and fire off a forecast. 

I wish they could all be this easy. But I think this was the last real long range snowstorm grad slam hit by a member ECMWF family of products. 

 

[Nibor]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I wish they could all be this easy. But I think this was the last real long range snowstorm grad slam hit by a member ECMWF family of products. 

 

I can’t imagine the utter bewilderment a regular person would have reading that tweet. 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I can’t imagine the utter bewilderment a regular person would have reading that tweet. 

I once spoke to someone that was asking me about online weather forums. They asked me why the people on there keep hoping that somebody would get crushed by a storm. 

[White Gorilla]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I once spoke to someone that was asking me about online weather forums. They asked me why the people on there keep hoping that somebody would get crushed by a storm. 

Yeah, aren't we so sadistic.. 

[jdj5211]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I once spoke to someone that was asking me about online weather forums. They asked me why the people on there keep hoping that somebody would get crushed by a storm. 

my wife says the same thing to me....I said you'll never understand....

[HeadInTheClouds]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I once spoke to someone that was asking me about online weather forums. They asked me why the people on there keep hoping that somebody would get crushed by a storm. 

It's a sickness. 

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

my wife says the same thing to me....I said you'll never understand....

This place and other online forums are  the only places I know of where I can let out my delight with snow and be understood.

[Allsnow]

NAM further southeast this run. 995 east of acy 

[MJO812]

[Zelocita Weather]

NAM is a very intense/snowy solution...

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

NAM is a very intense/snowy solution...

It shows sleet at 81 hours with temps below freezing lol

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It shows sleet at 81 hours with temps below freezing lol

850s are well below freezing at 6z so I'm not sure where it's getting sleet from

[Rjay]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

850s are well below freezing at 6z so I'm not sure where it's getting sleet from

There's obviously a warm layer somewhere in the column but it isn't worth talking about yet. 

[Tatamy]

18z NAM - still snowing across the region at 84 hours.  The run total would include the Monday event.

[sussexcountyobs]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It shows sleet at 81 hours with temps below freezing lol

Don't laugh. I've seen heavy freezing rain falling here with a surface temp of +4F. It can, and does happen. 

[Moderately Unstable]

The NAM has in various thermal profiles across the NE a warm layer between anything from around 700/725mb to around 800mb. I could show more, but if you want to see why a model is progging fzra/sleet over your house, just pull up the forecast sounding for the hour in question. Sometimes the fixed pressure surface maps don't tell the entire story (whether or not it's a true story is another matter).

 

[sferic]

18Z ICON Catskills blockbuster

[NJsnow89]

4 minutes ago, sferic said:

18Z ICON Catskills blockbuster

Yup. Icon trended NW from its last run

[Tatamy]

18z RGEM at 18 hours - still snowing

 

[bluewave]

That H500 closing off that the NAM has near 84 hrs would be an insurance policy against the high over New England suppressing this to the south.

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

18z RGEM at 18 hours - still snowing

 

Very cold everywhere

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

18z RGEM at 18 hours - still snowing

 

RGEM!!!

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That H500 closing off that the NAM has near 84 hrs would be an insurance policy against the high over New England suppressing this to the south.

 

Went towards the euro wow!

[sussexcountyobs]

With all these different model runs, I'm liking my spot in the Canistear rd. RT. 515 corridor in Vernon,  NJ.

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

With all these different model runs, I'm liking my spot in the Canistear rd. RT. 515 corridor in Vernon,  NJ.

I've been liking mine in the Lehigh Valley in Bethlehem Twp. PA.

[Greg g]

how about in Rockland county and the LHV how are things looking for us here?

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, Tatamy said:

I've been liking mine in the Lehigh Valley in Bethlehem Twp. PA.

Yes. You look good to. Maybe even better at this point. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, Greg g said:

how about in Rockland county and the LHV how are things looking for us here?

Great 

[DaveTinNY]

I'm in the middle of Rockland County.  Looks interesting.