Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[SnowGoose69]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:45 PM, Allsnow said:

I remember the nam back in 1993 nailed the snowstorm in January 

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It nailed the 2/8/94 event and was ignored lol because it was out for 4 weeks at the time

[cleetussnow]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:42 PM, Tatamy said:

Here is nice view of how that 850mb jet crushes the mountains of northern NJ and NE Pennsylvania.

 

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Thy will be a death band 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

  On 12/13/2020 at 5:49 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

The Op Euro has had major overamped biases at this range now for several years.  I believe we could see a run today whether its this one, the 18 or the 00 tonight be insanely far NW (I'm talking where most of the 95 corridor is primarily rain).  Its ensembles though will probably be SE of whatever it does on that same Op run

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Exactly, just look at the what it did with Jan 15. It’s going to snow in NYC. It’s just a matter dog how much mix we get. I like where I’ll be on the far NW UWS. Right on the beaches may struggle do to the warm water temps and early season nature of this storm

[Allsnow]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:45 PM, bluewave said:

The Euro did an amazing job from Sandy in 2012 to Nemo in 2013. The one storm that it was too amped on was January 2015. But since then , it has been coming north many times under 72 hrs. But since each storm is a new test cases, will have to wait and see if the 12z run today gives the euro a much needed win. 

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This isn’t comparable to January 2015 because that was relaying on Phasing on a true miller B. This is more of a hybrid Miller A. You have always said the euro dose better with STJ. I’ll bump some posts from you

[forkyfork]

2016 plowed north because of an extremely strong s/w. this isn't quite as strong 

[Joe4alb]

This will make it all worth it no matter how much I get..... 

[forkyfork]

the arctic high actually presses the low to the ESE once it reaches cape may

[tim]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:27 PM, MJO812 said:

Legit blizzard  conditions on the Euro for many on the coast.

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...what would the temperatures be during the storm?

[jm1220]

I think Cape May is our limit for near the coast-it tucks further and we mix/rain for a time. 

[SnowGoose69]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:56 PM, tim said:

...what would the temperatures be during the storm?

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20s near the coast.  

[HVSnowLover]

Guess Euro will end all this is turning into a rainstorm posts. 

[MJO812]

[Tatamy]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:59 PM, HVSnowLover said:

Guess Euro will end all this is turning into a rainstorm posts. 

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18z NAM starts in less than an hour.

[Rjay]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:58 PM, jm1220 said:

I think Cape May is our limit for near the coast-it tucks further and we mix/rain for a time. 

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Yup. AC wont cut it this time.  

[Rjay]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:59 PM, HVSnowLover said:

Guess Euro will end all this is turning into a rainstorm posts. 

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No it won't lol

[Tatamy]

12z GEPS/CMCE

 

[Rjay]

It's almost like @BxEnginedoesn't follow the weather.  Where the f is he?

[MJO812]

Holy cannoli

 

Amazing for an ensemble mean

[tim]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:59 PM, MJO812 said:

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...isn't that rain for LI ? 32* line is north of us..

[SnoSki14]

Side note it hit 62F today.

Gotta love how warm the day before a snow event often is and yes don't count out tomorrow. 

[Allsnow]

[nycsnow]

 

[rclab]

  On 12/13/2020 at 7:05 PM, Rjay said:

It's almost like @BxEnginedoesn't follow the weather.  Where the f is he?

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Fingering the delete key? As always ....

[MJO812]

Members are east of the 6z and 0z runs.

[Rjay]

  On 12/13/2020 at 7:19 PM, MJO812 said:

Members are east of the 6z and 0z runs.

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Post the timestamp before this one.   There's still a lot of inland members. 

[MJO812]

  On 12/13/2020 at 7:22 PM, Rjay said:

Post the timestamp before this one.   There's still a lot of inland members. 

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Yea but majority as it gets closer to us has shifted east

 

[forkyfork]

i see like 5 bad ones

[Rjay]

  On 12/13/2020 at 7:25 PM, forkyfork said:

i see like 5 bad ones

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I see at least 10 but to each his own lol.   And I also dont think this ends up inland so it doesn't matter.  

[bluewave]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:39 PM, SnoSki14 said:

So are you thinking the Ukmet is the way to go? 

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The UKMET can also be pretty erratic from storm to storm and run to run. It’s usually a rear view mirror assessment on which model did the best with each individual storm. I am going to wait until the UL gets fully sampled tonight over Oregon. Day 3-4 snowfall forecasts have always been a challenge since so many important things usually happen in under 48 or 36 hours. The general public doesn’t mind if you forecast 1.00” of rain and .50 verifies. But you would probably hear about it if it was snow especially on this forum. 

[Allsnow]

  On 12/13/2020 at 7:35 PM, bluewave said:

The UKMET can also be pretty erratic from storm to storm and run to run. It’s usually a rear view mirror assessment on which model did the best with each individual storm. I am going to wait until the UL gets fully sampled tonight over Oregon. Day 3-4 snowfall forecasts have always been a challenge since so many important things usually happen in under 48 or 36 hours. The general public doesn’t mind if you forecast 1.00” of rain and .50 verifies. But you would probably hear about it if it was snow especially on this forum. 

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We are not the general public. Rip that band aid off and fire off a forecast.