Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Nibor]

I don't think it can get better than that euro run.

[nycsnow]

Euro would be widespread 50-65mph gust wow

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Enough for blizzard conditions

[the_other_guy]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I dream about living in the Adirondacks  all the time

Then don’t move to Albany because you’ll be nowhere near the Adirondacks :)

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Rjay said:

Euro is nice for the entire subforum but absolutely crushes our NW crew

Yep heard you the first time 

[jdj5211]

can someone post the Kuchera map...does EURO have one?

[Rjay]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Yep heard you the first time 

It's weird bc the post doesnt show up for me at all.  

[WarrenCtyWx]

Huge totals from E LI to the Poconos. Wow.

[Tatamy]

Just now, jfklganyc said:

Then don’t move to Albany because you’ll be nowhere near the Adirondacks

Albany got 2.7" and the Adirondacks got zip on this run of the Euro.  They will get theirs this winter.

[Rjay]

Just now, jdj5211 said:

can someone post the Kuchera map...does EURO have one?

It's 20"+ for NNJ and the HV

[EasternLI]

That euro run is about as good as it gets for a forum wide event. Let's do it. Lock that in. 

[MJO812]

Legit blizzard  conditions on the Euro for many on the coast.

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

can someone post the Kuchera map...does EURO have one?

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Tatamy said:

Some of that is tomorrow yes?

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

It's weird bc the post doesnt show up for me at all.  

I saw it twice too. Odds are there will be some funky things like that happening this week as it looks like this board will be getting crushed during  model runs this week. 

[Allsnow]

The confluence and wave spacing Will help us. The incoming storm on the west coast won’t allow the ridge to be too sharp. 

[Tatamy]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Some of that is tomorrow yes?

About a half inch in some places.  Euro is not in for tomorrow's "event".

[jdj5211]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I'll take 24+ in my backyard LOL....not going to happen...

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Albany got 2.7" and the Adirondacks got zip on this run of the Euro.  They will get theirs this winter.

And that makes perfect sense. UKIE OTL on its latest run. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The OP Euro bias in recent years has been to be too suppressed with major Nor’easters. The go to model for us has been the NAM within 24-48 hrs. But that won’t be for another few days. I am hoping the 12z Euro can have some success for s change from 3-4 days out. The 12z run today would shore make many on here happy.

The euro has an amped bias, not a suppressed one. The GFS usually has a suppressed bias 

[HeadInTheClouds]

I like a blend of cmc and euro right now. 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The OP Euro bias in recent years has been to be too suppressed with major Nor’easters. The go to model for us has been the NAM within 24-48 hrs. But that won’t be for another few days. I am hoping the 12z Euro can have some success for a change from 3-4 days out. The 12z run today would sure  make many on here happy. I think the last big Euro win from 3-5 days out was Feb 2013.

It’s been too amped in the medium range for a while now. This is the op coming back to earth now 

[David-LI]

God save the king euro

[SnoSki14]

Just now, bluewave said:

It has been too suppressed several times from 2016 to 2020 with major Noreasters. Remember how it suppressed much of the snow in the January 2016 blizzard to our south from the day before. The NAM won that storm from 24 hrs out. The UKMET also did better with the early February follow up snowstorm. But maybe this will be the storm that it gets it’s mojo back.  The forum certainly hopes so.

So are you thinking the Ukmet is the way to go? 

[Rjay]

Just now, bluewave said:

It has been too suppressed several times from 2016 to 2020 with major Noreasters. Remember how it suppressed much of the snow in the January 2016 blizzard to our south from the day before. The NAM won that storm from 24 hrs out. The UKMET also did better with the early February follow up snowstorm. But maybe this will be the storm that it gets it’s mojo back.  The forum certainly hopes so.

To be fair, the NAM won that from 84 hours out.  I've never seen anything like that from the NAM before or after.  

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, bluewave said:

It has been too suppressed several times from 2016 to 2020 with major Noreasters. Remember how it suppressed much of the snow in the January 2016 blizzard to our south from the day before. The NAM won that storm from 24 hrs out. The UKMET also did better with the early February follow up snowstorm. But maybe this will be the storm that it gets it’s mojo back.  The forum certainly hopes so.

That was before the 2nd upgrade.  The Jan 2013 upgraded caused suppression issues at times for the Euro.  They upgraded it again in late 2016 I think and since then its tended to have over amplification issues from 90-120

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Rjay said:

To be fair, the NAM won that from 84 hours out.  I've never seen anything like that from the NAM before or after.  

It never wavered.  Normally the NAM waffles a ton in the 48-84 range.  When it doesn't beware...see tomorrow's event where the Euro sort of just caved.  The NAM has never really budged on that.

[Allsnow]

Just now, Rjay said:

To be fair, the NAM won that from 84 hours out.  I've never seen anything like that from the NAM before or after.  

Yep, the only thing we got from the nam after was a letter from the nws saying it’s being trashed 

[Tatamy]

Here is nice view of how that 850mb jet crushes the mountains of northern NJ and NE Pennsylvania.

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It has been too suppressed several times from 2016 to 2020 with major Noreasters. Remember how it suppressed much of the snow in the January 2016 blizzard to our south from the day before. The NAM won that storm from 24 hrs out. The UKMET also did better with the early February follow up snowstorm. But maybe this will be the storm that it gets its mojo back.  The forum certainly hopes so.

Most recently, and not 97 years ago, the euro has been to amped in the 3-5 day. Just last week it had the sne storm hitting  Interior NNE only back away from it inside 3 days. The wave spacing and confluence screams more progressive.