Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[nycsnow]

Damaging winds on the ukie nyc east 60-70+Gust 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Better hope ukie is wrong 

The snow totals would likely be much higher in places just east of that cutoff if the UKIE verified.  Islip for example wouldn't see 0

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Tatamy said:

Albany went from 3.7" at 0z to 20.5" at 12z.  That does seem odd...

Yeah the low didn't move much but the heaviest snow definitely moved north

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Maybe for your area but CMC/Euro are not nearly as warm as this ukie run, based on snow maps looks like rain/snow line would make it to Brooklyn and Queens.

Yes, I was talking about those models being further north and west with a bigger precip shield vs the GFS. 

[WarrenCtyWx]

The Ukie and the GFS could not be further apart.

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Better hope ukie is wrong 

The fears are being realized. We're only a couple ticks away from a rain event and there's still 3 days left.

Lack of PNA really hurting us.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah the low didn't move much but the heaviest snow definitely moved north

Looks to be about 25 miles NW

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Imby but it went from 18" to 0.2" for me in the last 2 runs lol. 

It took your snow and is dumping it on Albany now... lol

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The fears are being realized. We're only a couple ticks away from a rain event. 

This would be a bust because people were saying how this was a great setup for a big storm with the confluence. 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Its the CMC/Euro/Ukie/Icon even Nam vs the outlier GFS. 

The GFS and UKMET are both outliers. That might change when the ECMWF runs. Whether the individual EPS members and operational ECMWF maintain continuity with earlier cycles could be revealing. For now, the general idea of a potential significant snowfall that would include Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston remains reasonably intact, even as the increasing model divergence suggests some increase in uncertainty.

[nycsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

The fears are being realized. We're only a couple ticks away from a rain event and there's still 3 days left.

Would be heartbreaking but then we get the damaging wind aspect if it trends that much more amped 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

This would be a bust because people were saying how this was a great setup for a big storm with the confluence. 

its not becoming a rain event, at worst its snow to mix to snow for the city  

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MJO812 said:

This would be a bust because people were saying how this was a great setup for a big storm with the confluence. 

Yes it would be a bust but some did accurately note the PNA would hurt us and all it took was weaker confluence for us to see mostly rain.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The GFS and UKMET are both outliers. That might change when the ECMWF runs. Whether the individual EPS members and operational ECMWF maintain continuity with earlier cycles could be revealing. For now, the general idea of a potential significant snowfall that would include Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston remains reasonably intact, even as the increasing model divergence suggests some increase in uncertainty.

Yes with that latest UKIE run I agree. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This would be a bust because people were saying how this was a great setup for a big storm with the confluence. 

It still is a great setup for a big storm.  Just bc it might not snow in your backyard doesnt mean anything. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes it would be a bust but some did accurately note the PNA would hurt us and all it took was weaker confluence for us to see mostly rain.

Dude its 1 run

Lets see the others 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It still is a great setup for a big storm.  Just bc it might not snow in your backyard doesnt mean anything. 

What did I say ?

[wdrag]

WPC D4 prob 3"+.

[lee59]

I think some front end decent snow totals are likely even with a change to rain at the coast.

[Zelocita Weather]

Ukie was 8” plus for all I95 and west from one model and one run....

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

What did I say ?

 

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This would be a bust because people were saying how this was a great setup for a big storm with the confluence. 

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

 

 

I mean the coast

Carry on. Lack of sleep is getting to my brain.

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Dude its 1 run

Lets see the others 

We go through this with every storm, models will flip around. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

6 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

With that high I don’t think the precip  makes it to Massena New York. Let’s be real here this is going to be a snowstorm from DC to New York, Boston will get a few inches but most likely will get fringed. Monticello is the last spot that could get into some heavier snows but this isn’t going to be a 4 inch snow event for Brooklyn or queens no way. This is at least 8-12 for either one!

Yup. No way Albany is getting 2 ft either. Not going to happen. I still think NYC metro sees close to a ft. 

[Tatamy]

Albany is in a valley location.  How are they going to get the snow amount forecasted with that easterly flow at 850mb coming over the mountains of central New England.  Based on the orographics alone this outcome on the Ukie is very suspect.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Right now you can throw out the Ukie and GFS IMO. Right now I'm taking a blend of Euro/CMC and nam when in range. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

Albany is in a valley location.  How are they going to get the snow amount forecasted with that easterly flow at 850mb coming over the mountains of central New England.  Based on the orographics alone this outcome on the Ukie is very suspect.

There is no way Albany is getting 2 ft. Just not going to happen. 

[Tatamy]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

There is no way Albany is getting 2 ft. Just not going to happen. 

Exactly.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm 80 percent sure the Euro will go NW again.

The Op Euro has had major overamped biases at this range now for several years.  I believe we could see a run today whether its this one, the 18 or the 00 tonight be insanely far NW (I'm talking where most of the 95 corridor is primarily rain).  Its ensembles though will probably be SE of whatever it does on that same Op run

[lee59]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This would be a bust because people were saying how this was a great setup for a big storm with the confluence. 

I wouldn't really call it a bust because the high snow totals were some 4-5 days out. If you get your hopes to high that far out, you will bust a lot. Even now there is still so much time to do most anything. We still have a good storm to track and the uncertainty is what makes it so interesting.