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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020


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5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Its the CMC/Euro/Ukie/Icon even Nam vs the outlier GFS. 

The GFS and UKMET are both outliers. That might change when the ECMWF runs. Whether the individual EPS members and operational ECMWF maintain continuity with earlier cycles could be revealing. For now, the general idea of a potential significant snowfall that would include Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston remains reasonably intact, even as the increasing model divergence suggests some increase in uncertainty.

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The GFS and UKMET are both outliers. That might change when the ECMWF runs. Whether the individual EPS members and operational ECMWF maintain continuity with earlier cycles could be revealing. For now, the general idea of a potential significant snowfall that would include Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston remains reasonably intact, even as the increasing model divergence suggests some increase in uncertainty.

Yes with that latest UKIE run I agree. 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This would be a bust because people were saying how this was a great setup for a big storm with the confluence. 

It still is a great setup for a big storm.  Just bc it might not snow in your backyard doesnt mean anything. 

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6 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

With that high I don’t think the precip  makes it to Massena New York. Let’s be real here this is going to be a snowstorm from DC to New York, Boston will get a few inches but most likely will get fringed. Monticello is the last spot that could get into some heavier snows but this isn’t going to be a 4 inch snow event for Brooklyn or queens no way. This is at least 8-12 for either one!

Yup. No way Albany is getting 2 ft either. Not going to happen. I still think NYC metro sees close to a ft. 

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1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

Albany is in a valley location.  How are they going to get the snow amount forecasted with that easterly flow at 850mb coming over the mountains of central New England.  Based on the orographics alone this outcome on the Ukie is very suspect.

There is no way Albany is getting 2 ft. Just not going to happen. 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm 80 percent sure the Euro will go NW again.

The Op Euro has had major overamped biases at this range now for several years.  I believe we could see a run today whether its this one, the 18 or the 00 tonight be insanely far NW (I'm talking where most of the 95 corridor is primarily rain).  Its ensembles though will probably be SE of whatever it does on that same Op run

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12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This would be a bust because people were saying how this was a great setup for a big storm with the confluence. 

I wouldn't really call it a bust because the high snow totals were some 4-5 days out. If you get your hopes to high that far out, you will bust a lot. Even now there is still so much time to do most anything. We still have a good storm to track and the uncertainty is what makes it so interesting.

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