Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[SI Mailman]

CMC Clown map

 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

The Canadian doesn't look like the euro 

Neither did the ukie last night

[Yanksfan]

The GFS as of late has been doing too much waffling for my liking, while the EURO has been holding steadfast with a hugger solution. I’m not buying the EURO either. My gut tells me in the end there will be a compromise between the two models. Something similar what the EPS depicts where the low exits off Delmarva/ Cape May followed by a motion ENE.

[White Gorilla]

19 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

The GFS as of late has been doing too much waffling for my liking, while the EURO has been holding steadfast with a hugger solution. I’m not buying the EURO either. My gut tells me in the end there will be a compromise between the two models. Something similar what the EPS depicts where the low exits off Delmarva/ Cape May followed by a motion ENE.

Yes, for now, a blend of guidance makes sense 

[kat5hurricane]

I've always said that suppression is the biggest concern, that confluence means business. Even in the city, I'd be a bit concerned about a whiff south. Folks up north should definitely be concerned.

[NEG NAO]

that shortwave in Minnesota on the GFS is what might be causing it to do what it did at 12Z anyone see that on any other model ?

[nycsnow]

Most consistent thing is we all achieve blizzard conditions impressive winds coming 

[NJwx85]

 

[MJO812]

Gfs is too flat

Euro  is too amped

[White Gorilla]

18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

Someone once called it the GooFuS model.  But I ain't laughing because GooFuS could still have the last laugh. 

[Tatamy]

12z GEFS

[White Gorilla]

19 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

12z GEFS

Still 5-8 up here.  I will take if that is the actual solution.  Lots of model runs to go. 

[HVSnowLover]

Models trending a bit less dynamic than yesterday, but look I can't complain if it's a 6-12 inch storm.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, JoshSnow said:

Ukmet looks good

Lol

[Allsnow]

RGEM fwiw is 4-8 before any rain concerns. Should be big thump with this 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, JoshSnow said:

Ukmet looks good

It’s telling us that the GFS is probably too flat again. 

[HVSnowLover]

15 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

The GFS as of late has been doing too much waffling for my liking, while the EURO has been holding steadfast with a hugger solution. I’m not buying the EURO either. My gut tells me in the end there will be a compromise between the two models. Something similar what the EPS depicts where the low exits off Delmarva/ Cape May followed by a motion ENE.

Actually yesterdays 12Z run was more surpressed on the Euro. There is no hugger solution anyway in terms of our area, it's a hugger up until it reaches Southern NJ and then gets slammed east by confluence, 0Z Euro I am pretty sure was all snow for NYC Metro. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It’s telling us that the GFS is probably too flat again. 

Or the euro is To amped again 

[forkyfork]

a gfs/euro blend would be nice

[HVSnowLover]

40 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

despite all that, snow totals are down on GFS compared to previous runs.  

 

If it scoots east too far south it will be congrats Baltimore and Philly in terms of big totals, still can't complain with 8-10 inches 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

I hope so I like the eps 6z and cmc 12z they are ideal for New York City. Maybe another 15-20 miles more East and even Long Island can get hit pretty hard 

I posted the GFS cold bias earlier in this thread. The model loves to push the baroclinic zone too far S and E. So the storms end up too suppressed.

[Rjay]

Waiting on the hi res maps

 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, Rjay said:

Waiting on the hi res maps

 

Looks pretty far NW but hard to tell without all the frames

[ILoveWinter]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

RGEM fwiw is 4-8 before any rain concerns. Should be big thump with this 

Not sure if this is still the case but doesn’t /didn’t the RGEM have a warm /amped bias?

[Stormlover74]

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

Not sure if this is still the case but doesn’t /didn’t the RGEM have a warm /amped bias?

I think if anything it's outside its useful range

[Allsnow]

[ILoveWinter]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I think if anything it's outside its useful range

Yes very true. Also, I could be confusing the RGEM with another model.

[White Gorilla]

Up here, accums all depend on when it starts to shunt east.  NYC is golden no matter what. 

[wdrag]

Fwiw: WPC's first take late this morning on QPF for Wednesday evening into Thu, but does not include prior to 7P Wednesday. This will update early this afternoon. 

[Rjay]

While we have some down time, this was the Ukie last night. 

 

These maps will be out in 15-30 minutes.