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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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crossbowftw3

crossbowftw3

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  On 12/13/2020 at 1:50 PM, Allsnow said:

It’s amazing how consistent the models are in bringing significant snow to nyc. Usually when you have blocking the models latch on to a idea early because it can only come so far north. Going to be a nasty cutoff in sne 

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Hard not to be nervous in the LHV as well. We should be fine but might just be precariously close to the cutoffs.

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bluewave

bluewave

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The models that handle the 500 mb heights near Oregon and general PNA best will get the storm track correct. 
 

Bottom line: I'll be really curious to see tonight's MFR sounding. That 500mb height observation will perhaps help give us (and models) a clue where the storm might go later on. 5570m vs 5590m may seem small, but in a nonlinear system those tiny differences grow rapidly!

 
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White Gorilla

White Gorilla

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  On 12/13/2020 at 2:01 PM, bluewave said:

The models that handle the 500 mb heights near Oregon and general PNA best will get the storm track correct. 
 

Bottom line: I'll be really curious to see tonight's MFR sounding. That 500mb height observation will perhaps help give us (and models) a clue where the storm might go later on. 5570m vs 5590m may seem small, but in a nonlinear system those tiny differences grow rapidly!

 
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Fascinating to say the least! 

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
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It's hard for me to get excited about weather with everything going on, but I check in here from time to time. Wha happen? A week ago people were writing winter off....now we are looking at a big storm? PS just got two big snow blowers, a 28 inch Yard machine and and 24 in craftsman, for next to nothing as Sears liquidates its remaining stock....I was thinking to put them in storage until....I really just thought a small one would be fine given the last 3 years....seriously one was 149$ and the other was 299$....less than what it costs to fix my old ones....

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Tatamy

Tatamy

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  On 12/13/2020 at 2:19 PM, weatherpruf said:

It's hard for me to get excited about weather with everything going on, but I check in here from time to time. Wha happen? A week ago people were writing winter off....now we are looking at a big storm? PS just got two big snow blowers, a 28 inch Yard machine and and 24 in craftsman, for next to nothing as Sears liquidates its remaining stock....I was thinking to put them in storage until....I really just thought a small one would be fine given the last 3 years....seriously one was 149$ and the other was 299$....less than what it costs to fix my old ones....

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I have had one of those 28 inch Yard machine blowers for 12 years now.  It's a really nice machine.  Good for you on getting that deal - that is a fantastic price.

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snowman19

snowman19

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  On 12/13/2020 at 1:15 PM, bluewave said:

This storm will push up against one of the strongest 50/50 lows on record.

 

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We haven’t seen a setup like this since March, 2018. Given how very strong the 50/50 low and confluence are, I think the threat is east/suppressed. This may be one of the few times NYC sees more snow than the north and west suburbs. For once, I think the GFS/GEFS are onto something. I don’t buy the tucked in solutions at all. Any doubts about how strong the block was going to be are all gone, it’s no joke, there is going to one hell of a sharp cutoff to the north of NYC

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crossbowftw3

crossbowftw3

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  On 12/13/2020 at 2:33 PM, snowman19 said:

We haven’t seen a setup like this since March, 2018. Given how very strong the 50/50 low and confluence are, I think the threat is east/suppressed. This may be one of the few times NYC sees more snow than the north and west suburbs. For once, I think the GFS/GEFS are onto something. I don’t buy the tucked in solutions at all. Any doubts about how strong the block was going to be are all gone, it’s no joke, there is going to one hell of a sharp cutoff to the north of NYC

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I still fear this happening. Still going par the course for my BY but you raise a good point here.

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snowman19

snowman19

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  On 12/13/2020 at 2:35 PM, MJO812 said:

That's if the eps is right. 

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EPS/Euro are way too tucked in IMO. No way are you tucking in with a record strong 50/50 low and confluence that strong, color me skeptical. I think the GEFS/GFS are showing the most likely outcome, this is going to turn out suppressed/east

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
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  On 12/13/2020 at 2:39 PM, snowman19 said:

EPS/Euro are way too tucked in IMO. No way are you tucking in with a record strong 50/50 low and confluence that strong, color me skeptical. I think the GEFS/GFS are showing the most likely outcome, this is going to turn out suppressed/east

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I have said from the beginning that a shredded outcome is more likely than a hugger.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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The NAM solution doesn’t make a whole lot of sense nor does many of the Euro members solely because systems evolving in such a pattern like this have never gone snow-mix or rain-snow at the coast.  At least nothing that I can remember in the last 30-40 years.  This is why more likely than not either this is going to split the difference between the EPS/NAM and GEFS idea or it’s going to continue ticking further NW  

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wdrag

wdrag

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  On 12/13/2020 at 2:50 PM, bluewave said:

The NAM actually looks like it could be one of the EPS members more than the GEFS.


F897CC3D-7609-40A7-8398-7A1C84A17E97.thumb.gif.b670c250fd86e09b17a5c55e11b7dab6.gif

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Absolutely!  The questions continue going forward,  will it hold? I took a look at the 500MB pattern at 84 hours...modeling a 140 kt jet up over Quebec Wednesday evening and plenty of sw flow back to OHIO at 500MB. I'm pretty sure this says northern solution.

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