Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I'm from central NJ. (Southern Mercer County). There's gonna be a razer sharp cutoff around my parts. I think NYC and north is game set and match to get hammered regardless. 

Euro is the only model so far north  and west

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

yea Blizzard Warnings might be hoisted in part of the area..........IF models continue showing these solutions.......

[TriPol]

Confused. EURO shows all sleet for I-95 East. How are we picking up 15 inches of snow??

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is the only model so far north  and west

It's going to try for the tuck, question is where it stops. Confluence somewhere shunts it out. Hopefully it happens in time. But yeah, verbatim a monster.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It's going to try for the tuck, question is where it stops. Confluence somewhere shunts it out. Hopefully it happens in time. But yeah, verbatim a monster.

Hopefully it happens in SNJ

[SnoSki14]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

yea Blizzard Warnings might be hoisted in part of the area..........

Euro would def give us some coastal flooding/wind issues.

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is the only model so far north  and west

Ukie had big numbers N and W also, CMC also to an extent. 

[MJO812]

Euro  is a late  Wednesday night into Thursday event. Slow mover.

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's going to try for the tuck, question is where it stops. Confluence somewhere shunts it out. Hopefully it happens in time. But yeah, verbatim a monster.

Thats a really big question right now. 

[wizard021]

Hope deblasio has enough crew working  sanitation with all the covid to clean the highways. Otherwise nurses and docs will have a hard time getting to work Thursday, and they are needed big rn.

[MJO812]

Goodnight 

[Stormlover74]

Hopefully it heads east soon after this frame 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hopefully it heads east soon after this frame 

I just posted it

Euro and eps are the only models this far west

[MJO812]

Lets hope the Euro bias is in effect here so more people can join in the fun. 

 

Time for bed. Have a good night .

[mattinpa]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lets hope the Euro bias is in effect here so more people can join in the fun. 

 

Time for bed. Have a good night .

You too. Hope a lot can cash in on this one!

[MJO812]

Big difference between gefs and eps

Okay night 

[Big Jims Videos]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

 

How many times can LBI hit hurricane force gusts in a year? Coastal flooding at the 9 am high tide looks to be ugly.  

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Wake up people.   This is insane!

I heard a loud yell that woke me up and I looked around confused because there's no one else here.  I looked outside and there isn't anyone outside at this ungodly hour either.  Then I got on here.  Oh, so that was you.  

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I just posted it

Euro and eps are the only models this far west

looks like Dec 1992.  Even if only rain that would be a historic storm with far more impact than any snowstorm we've ever had in our lifetimes.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

Confused. EURO shows all sleet for I-95 East. How are we picking up 15 inches of snow??

Feb 1922 was around 20 inches of sleet.

Biggest Precip event we've ever had.

It would be incredible to have the wind of Dec 1992 and the precip of Feb 1922 and both of their long duration.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

it has the razor sharp cut off south of the south shore of Long Island just like Dec 2003 did.

So a combo of Feb 1922, Dec 1992, Dec 2003 and Dec 2010?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The tuck determines love and hate. It gets north of Cape May I get nervous for NYC and east. 

the "classic" track bends noreasters east somewhere around the Delaware coast.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I don't think it will either but I'm still scarred by Jonas. I saw 3 flakes. 

No matter what this storm does, it wont be able to match the historic nature of Jonas.  in Jan 2016 we had a wide area of 30" plus snows that stretched from Allentown across Morristown and right to JFK and Western Long Island.  And it fell for 30 hours!  It's going to be extremely difficult for any storm to ever match that regardless of where you live  in our area.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully this somehow can crush the entire sub forum, even the more suppressed runs do spread snow pretty far north. But a system like this will have a nasty cutoff somewhere-Albany area, I-84, somewhere. Confluence means dry air and sharp cutoff. 

classic storms always have the sharp cut off. Let's hope it's around lake effect country.  They get enough snow as it is.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, jdj5211 said:

00Z GFS has begun!  

Interesting series of runs tonight that run the gamut from whiff to blizzard to rain lol.  It might just be recency bias, but I feel like the GFS has been better this winter than the Euro has.

[Tatamy]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No matter what this storm does, it wont be able to match the historic nature of Jonas.  in Jan 2016 we had a wide area of 30" plus snows that stretched from Allentown across Morristown and right to JFK and Western Long Island.  And it fell for 30 hours!  It's going to be extremely difficult for any storm to ever match that regardless of where you live  in our area.

 

I would not speak to soon regarding the outcome of this storm and whether it matches Jonas.  As currently modeled this storm will be accompanied by strong gusty winds to 50 mph or more.  This will whip up the dry powdery snow into huge drifts of up to 6-10 feet or more in many places   This is the type of storm that can shut down highways for several days exacerbating existing supply chain shortages across many industries.  This is what a crippling blizzard does.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Tatamy said:

I would not speak to soon regarding the outcome of this storm and whether it matches Jonas.  As currently modeled this storm will be accompanied by strong gusty winds to 50 mph or more.  This will whip up the dry powdery snow into huge drifts of up to 6-10 feet or more in many places   This is the type of storm that can shut down highways for several days exacerbating existing supply chain shortages across many industries.  This is what a crippling blizzard does.

Yes but Jonas had those amazing winds too- JFK had confirmed blizzard conditions for 6 straight hours.  I've never seen that before, ever.  A few years later we had a mini Jonas (I dont remember the name of that storm) where we had blizzard whiteout conditions for 3 straight hours, but those are the only two times I've seen that.  Complete whiteout for hours couldn't see a thing outside during the middle of the day....

 

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I would not speak to soon regarding the outcome of this storm and whether it matches Jonas.  As currently modeled this storm will be accompanied by strong gusty winds to 50 mph or more.  This will whip up the dry powdery snow into huge drifts of up to 6-10 feet or more in many places   This is the type of storm that can shut down highways for several days exacerbating existing supply chain shortages across many industries.  This is what a crippling blizzard does.

[Tatamy]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yes but Jonas had those amazing winds too- JFK had confirmed blizzard conditions for 6 straight hours.  I've never seen that before, ever.  A few years later we had a mini Jonas (I dont remember the name of that storm) where we had blizzard whiteout conditions for 3 straight hours, but those are the only two times I've seen that.  Complete whiteout for hours couldn't see a thing outside during the middle of the day....

 

The winds with Jonas were strong around the NYC area but not so much further inland.  This storm will bring strong winds further inland as well. 

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

The winds with Jonas were strong around the NYC area but not so much further inland.  This storm will bring strong winds further inland as well. 

Since you're in Bethlehem I'll ask you- did you get 30 inches in Jonas too?  I was on Long Island for it 4 miles from JFK where we did get it, but I know there was a sharp cut off to the north.  In PA my other home is one county north of Allentown, in Carbon county.  Did that area also see 30"?  I know south of I-80 was where the heaviest snows were and I'm south of I-80.  Do you know of any snowfall totals out of the Lehighton/Albrightsville/Lake Harmony/Bear Creek area (elevation around 2000 ft)?  Thanks!