Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[SI Mailman]

[HeadInTheClouds]

There are going to be some big numbers on the Euro. 

[SnoSki14]

It looks good to me.

[SI Mailman]

[snywx]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:21 AM, HeadInTheClouds said:

There are going to be some big numbers on the Euro. 

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Looks like the euro is gonna give the interior some love

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:18 AM, SI Mailman said:

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Ugly as hell for I-95 and east, I have a feeling this is going to end up being a sleet fest for I-95. That warm nose is gonna muck things up for the coastal crew.

[Sn0waddict]

Wait did it pretty much just stall between 6z-12z?

[HeadInTheClouds]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:22 AM, snywx said:

Looks like the euro is gonna give the interior some love

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Wow. You get crushed in Orange county on that run. 

[jm1220]

SNE and the inland thread might be bigger fans of this run. Mon system weak, this one tucks north to where? Borderline maybe NYC east for a time.

[SnoSki14]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:23 AM, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Ugly as hell for I-95 and east, I have a feeling this is going to end up being a sleet fest for I-95. That warm nose is gonna muck things up for the coastal crew.

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It's either gonna rain or snow, I don't see much sleet with this. 

[NEG NAO]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:24 AM, Sn0waddict said:

Wait did it pretty much just stall between 6z-12z?

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starts early afternoon Wednesday tapers off around noon Thursday almost 24 hour event...........

[KeithB]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:22 AM, snywx said:

Looks like the euro is gonna give the interior some love

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The 12z Euro gave Rockland and Orange County 9 to 13 inches depending on where you were....this 00z run gives all of Rockland and Orange 18+. NYC abd surrounding still get 15+. Great run for most

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:25 AM, SnoSki14 said:

It's either gonna rain or snow, I don't see much sleet with this. 

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I meant to say ZR and Sleet. I'm real nervous for my area just NE of philly. NYC should be fine due to the latitude. I think the farther north you are the better with this storm. 

[jm1220]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:27 AM, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I meant to say ZR and Sleet. I'm real nervous for my area just NE of philly. NYC should be fine due to the latitude. I think the farther north you are the better with this storm. 

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The tuck determines love and hate. It gets north of Cape May I get nervous for NYC and east. 

[SnoSki14]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:27 AM, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I meant to say ZR and Sleet. I'm real nervous for my area just NE of philly. NYC should be fine due to the latitude. I think the farther north you are the better with this storm. 

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Just keep in mind the Euro tends to overamplify systems while the Gfs can be more suppressed. 

I'll take a mix of the two for now and see what happens next couple days. NYC metro looks good even if it takes a more amped track. 

[Sn0waddict]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:26 AM, NEG NAO said:

starts early afternoon Wednesday tapers off around noon Thursday almost 24 hour event...........

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That’s seems like a pretty big difference vs prior runs. Especially compared to the gfs.

[MJO812]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:23 AM, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Ugly as hell for I-95 and east, I have a feeling this is going to end up being a sleet fest for I-95. That warm nose is gonna muck things up for the coastal crew.

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Ugly ? Its beautiful 

[sferic]

EURO verbatim is 18-24 from Sullivan to Orange counties

[MJO812]

Over a foot of snow for NYC.

Blizzard on this run

[MJO812]

[RU848789]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:08 AM, HeadInTheClouds said:

Thats not the UK, its the 12z Euro. Anthony posted UK on previous page. 

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D'oh!  Fixed it, thanks - sleepy time, lol...

[NEG NAO]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:29 AM, Sn0waddict said:

That’s seems like a pretty big difference vs prior runs. Especially compared to the gfs.

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The storm is being blocked from moving out fast - in no hurry to leave.........

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:29 AM, MJO812 said:

Ugly ? Its beautiful 

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I'm from central NJ. (Southern Mercer County). There's gonna be a razer sharp cutoff around my parts. I think NYC and north is game set and match to get hammered regardless. 

[RU848789]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:25 AM, SnoSki14 said:

It's either gonna rain or snow, I don't see much sleet with this. 

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That's what the NWS has been saying, given thermal profiles of the column...

[NEG NAO]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:29 AM, MJO812 said:

Over a foot of snow for NYC.

Blizzard on this run

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what are the wind speeds on the models?

 

[wizard021]

Ukmet 20 inches plus nyc , all layers cold 

[MJO812]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:33 AM, NEG NAO said:

what are the wind speeds on the models?

 

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[HeadInTheClouds]

There was some decent run to run consistency for awhile. Now all hell has broken loose. 

[KeithB]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:29 AM, sferic said:

EURO verbatim is 18-24 from Sullivan to Orange counties

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and the 12z run 12 hours earlier had this region 6-10 inches. So if it can all change that fast, god knows what can happen in the next 96 hours.

[Sn0waddict]

  On 12/13/2020 at 6:31 AM, NEG NAO said:

The storm is being blocked from moving out fast - in no hurry to leave.........

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Seems like prior runs were quick to shove it east though once it hit the block to the north. What’s stopping it from sprinting east on this run?