Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[SI Mailman]

[HeadInTheClouds]

There are going to be some big numbers on the Euro. 

[SnoSki14]

It looks good to me.

[SI Mailman]

[snywx]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

There are going to be some big numbers on the Euro. 

Looks like the euro is gonna give the interior some love

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

3 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Ugly as hell for I-95 and east, I have a feeling this is going to end up being a sleet fest for I-95. That warm nose is gonna muck things up for the coastal crew.

[Sn0waddict]

Wait did it pretty much just stall between 6z-12z?

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, snywx said:

Looks like the euro is gonna give the interior some love

Wow. You get crushed in Orange county on that run. 

[jm1220]

SNE and the inland thread might be bigger fans of this run. Mon system weak, this one tucks north to where? Borderline maybe NYC east for a time.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Ugly as hell for I-95 and east, I have a feeling this is going to end up being a sleet fest for I-95. That warm nose is gonna muck things up for the coastal crew.

It's either gonna rain or snow, I don't see much sleet with this. 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Wait did it pretty much just stall between 6z-12z?

starts early afternoon Wednesday tapers off around noon Thursday almost 24 hour event...........

[KeithB]

Just now, snywx said:

Looks like the euro is gonna give the interior some love

The 12z Euro gave Rockland and Orange County 9 to 13 inches depending on where you were....this 00z run gives all of Rockland and Orange 18+. NYC abd surrounding still get 15+. Great run for most

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

It's either gonna rain or snow, I don't see much sleet with this. 

I meant to say ZR and Sleet. I'm real nervous for my area just NE of philly. NYC should be fine due to the latitude. I think the farther north you are the better with this storm. 

[jm1220]

Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I meant to say ZR and Sleet. I'm real nervous for my area just NE of philly. NYC should be fine due to the latitude. I think the farther north you are the better with this storm. 

The tuck determines love and hate. It gets north of Cape May I get nervous for NYC and east. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I meant to say ZR and Sleet. I'm real nervous for my area just NE of philly. NYC should be fine due to the latitude. I think the farther north you are the better with this storm. 

Just keep in mind the Euro tends to overamplify systems while the Gfs can be more suppressed. 

I'll take a mix of the two for now and see what happens next couple days. NYC metro looks good even if it takes a more amped track. 

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

starts early afternoon Wednesday tapers off around noon Thursday almost 24 hour event...........

That’s seems like a pretty big difference vs prior runs. Especially compared to the gfs.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Ugly as hell for I-95 and east, I have a feeling this is going to end up being a sleet fest for I-95. That warm nose is gonna muck things up for the coastal crew.

Ugly ? Its beautiful 

[sferic]

EURO verbatim is 18-24 from Sullivan to Orange counties

[MJO812]

Over a foot of snow for NYC.

Blizzard on this run

[MJO812]

[RU848789]

21 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Thats not the UK, its the 12z Euro. Anthony posted UK on previous page. 

D'oh!  Fixed it, thanks - sleepy time, lol...

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

That’s seems like a pretty big difference vs prior runs. Especially compared to the gfs.

The storm is being blocked from moving out fast - in no hurry to leave.........

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Ugly ? Its beautiful 

I'm from central NJ. (Southern Mercer County). There's gonna be a razer sharp cutoff around my parts. I think NYC and north is game set and match to get hammered regardless. 

[RU848789]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's either gonna rain or snow, I don't see much sleet with this. 

That's what the NWS has been saying, given thermal profiles of the column...

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Over a foot of snow for NYC.

Blizzard on this run

what are the wind speeds on the models?

 

[wizard021]

Ukmet 20 inches plus nyc , all layers cold 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

what are the wind speeds on the models?

 

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

There was some decent run to run consistency for awhile. Now all hell has broken loose. 

[KeithB]

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

EURO verbatim is 18-24 from Sullivan to Orange counties

and the 12z run 12 hours earlier had this region 6-10 inches. So if it can all change that fast, god knows what can happen in the next 96 hours.

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

The storm is being blocked from moving out fast - in no hurry to leave.........

Seems like prior runs were quick to shove it east though once it hit the block to the north. What’s stopping it from sprinting east on this run?