Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[jm1220]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

We will see. I don't deny the blocking. I have always been concerned about being north of 84. I just don't think it will be due north and then due east with out some northerly component. 

We learned the really hard way on 2/6/10 how hard east the turn can be in confluence. At some point that will come, could be when this cuts into NJ and you’ll bonanza when I rain, or it’ll be like the GFS now says. I think that happens somewhere though, unless the confluence weakens. It’s a really potent trough and shortwave which means this will try to cut and may try to head almost due north, but there will be the brick confluence wall somewhere. 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

We will see. I don't deny the blocking. I have always been concerned about it being north of 84. I just don't think it will be due north and then due east with out some northerly component. 

Happened a lot in 09-10 but in general while these storms favor the coast it's rare for these big storms to completely whiff north of I84.  

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

We learned the really hard way on 2/6/10 how hard east the turn can be in confluence. At some point that will come, could be when this cuts into NJ and you’ll bonanza when I rain, or it’ll be like the GFS now says. I think that happens somewhere though, unless the confluence weakens. It’s a really potent trough and shortwave which means this will try to cut and may try to head almost due north, but there will be the brick confluence wall somewhere. 

Yep even the 18Z GFS had the sharp turn east, it just took the low way further north into NJ before making the turn. 

[jm1220]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Happened a lot in 09-10 but in general while these storms favor the coast it's rare for these big storms to completely whiff north of I84.  

Hopefully this somehow can crush the entire sub forum, even the more suppressed runs do spread snow pretty far north. But a system like this will have a nasty cutoff somewhere-Albany area, I-84, somewhere. Confluence means dry air and sharp cutoff. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Happened a lot in 09-10 but in general while these storms favor the coast it's rare for these big storms to completely whiff north of I84.  

I don't think it will either but I'm still scarred by Jonas. I saw 3 flakes. 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We learned the really hard way on 2/6/10 how hard east the turn can be in confluence. At some point that will come, could be when this cuts into NJ and you’ll bonanza when I rain, or it’ll be like the GFS now says. I think that happens somewhere though, unless the confluence weakens. It’s a really potent trough and shortwave which means this will try to cut and may try to head almost due north, but there will be the brick confluence wall somewhere. 

At least that one turned ese around VA Beach. 

[forkyfork]

on the flip side of confluence is a very nice northern edge deformation band

[forkyfork]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

At least that one turned ese around VA Beach. 

this isn't feb 2010

[MJO812]

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this isn't feb 2010

Definitely not but I see the same sharp northern edge somewhere. 

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

on the flip side of confluence is a very nice northern edge deformation band

Yea a model like the gfs i believe is less likely to pick up on this kind of banding.  

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

At least that one turned ese around VA Beach. 

This one makes the turn way further north, for my backyard personally hopefully not north of Cape May. 

[MJO812]

Ukie Snowmap 

[MJO812]

Better map

[Rjay]

Wake up people.   This is insane!

[HeadInTheClouds]

According to the models I can expect anywhere between 4 and 18. 

[Rjay]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

According to the models I can expect anywhere between 4 and 18. 

This is the norm.   Although this storm seems to be waffling less than most do on the models.

[Nibor]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Wake up people.   This is insane!

I was told to wait until the end of the weekend, so until then...

[KeithB]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Wake up people.   This is insane!

I am up. Waiting on the EURO run...

[kat5hurricane]

Jeez, that Ukie is a Nukee.

 

[RU848789]

In case people haven't seen the UK - I'll take two please.  I assume the Euro will join the GFS/CMC/UK in keeping us in loads of digital snow.  

[Fishmn]

I hate being in the bullseye 5 days out. At least is something after a 3 year drought.

 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

In case people haven't seen the UK - I'll take two please.  I assume the Euro will join the GFS/CMC/UK in keeping us in loads of digital snow.  

Jeeeeeeee.... zus. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Jeeeeeeee.... zus. 

Thats not the UK, its the 12z Euro. Anthony posted UK on previous page. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

6 minutes ago, Fishmn said:

I hate being in the bullseye 5 days out. At least is something after a 3 year drought.

 

It's actually 3.5 days away. 

[jm1220]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Better map

Jeeeeeeeeeee......... zus.  

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Thats not the UK, its the 12z Euro. Anthony posted UK on previous page. 

Noted!

[SI Mailman]

[SI Mailman]

[KeithB]

This Euro run is a home run!!