Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, TriPol said:

All those weenie suicides had better come back to life... that is, unless the EURO throws us a curveball! 

There will be more curveballs for sure... still many many runs to go.

[SI Mailman]

[jdj5211]

Perfect setup for NYC/NNJ area.....solid 12-18 inch storm with some potential for 18+ zones.  Let's see what the EURO has to say...

[cardinalland]

~1.5 in QPF in NYC on the 00z GFS, with temperatures staying just below freezing at the surface throughout the storm

[WarrenCtyWx]

3 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Perfect setup for NYC/NNJ area.....solid 12-18 inch storm with some potential for 18+ zones.  Let's see what the EURO has to say...

Not for all of NNJ and especially not Orange County north.

[Zelocita Weather]

Confluence/cold no joke...

[White Gorilla]

19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Garbage run for northern peeps

OK that's it.  This back and forth is tiring, but expected at this range.  

[jm1220]

The confluence and how it can force this south is the story to me. Still a ways to go. Please cut out the “this run sucks” posts, they’ll be deleted.

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Confluence/cold no joke...

Yeah that's why I didn't buy those overly amped runs.

[HVSnowLover]

I still say what I said earlier, NYC Metro is a very good position, even with the extreme differences between 18Z and 0Z GFS they both crush NYC Metro.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

I still say what I said earlier, NYC Metro is a very good position, even with the extreme differences between 18Z and 0Z GFS they both crush NYC Metro.  

Yup. They are in a very good position with this one. 

[lee59]

Channel 4 NBC really going out on a limb. Already mentioning a foot of snow for city and surrounding area.

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Crushes NYC and way better than 0Z GFS for north of NYC

[BlizzLuv]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Channel 4 NBC really going out on a limb. Already mentioning a foot of snow for city and surrounding area.

I just saw that too and was surprised they would do so this early in the game,

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, BlizzLuv said:

I just saw that too and was surprised they would do so this early in the game,

Yea it's bullish but honestly every single model run since yesterday has shown 6+ for NYC and immediate NW burbs.  

[Nibor]

CMC another huge hit.

[kat5hurricane]

Great run for the city but that confluence is no joke, you don't want this to get suppressed too much. It's a pretty sharp cut off north of the city on this run.

[MJO812]

[NJsnow89]

Gefs way southeast. I guess that’s a risk as well

[MJO812]

[lee59]

7 minutes ago, BlizzLuv said:

I just saw that too and was surprised they would do so this early in the game,

I agree. There is no doubt the models have been looking good and it is fine to make predictions on sites like this but a little early when talking to hundreds of thousands or millions of people. After all a 50 mile move north or south with the storm can make a huge difference and were still some 4 or 5 days out.

[NJwx85]

31 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Wow that’s ugly up here.

[HeadInTheClouds]

I think the handling of the low by the GFS is a little fugazy. It basically goes straight north from hours 96 to 102 and then takes a right turn when it feels the blocking and goes due east. I just don't think that will happen. I think it will be more ene. 

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Gefs way southeast. I guess that’s a risk as well

Still a good hit and there's likely more after this. I'll gladly take 6 to 10

 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I think the handling of the low by the GFS is a little fugazy. It basically goes straight north from hours 96 to 102 and then takes a right turn when it feels the blocking and goes due east. I just don't think that will happen. I think it will be more ene. 

We thought the same would happen with some of those 09/10 storms but you can't deny the confluence. 

Granted the poor PNA would argue for a slight northerly component.

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I think the handling of the low by the GFS is a little fugazy. It basically goes straight north from hours 96 to 102 and then takes a right turn when it feels the blocking and goes due east. I just don't think that will happen. I think it will be more ene. 

The blocking is legit. Wherever the SLP occludes it's going to start heading east. That's why we're seeing such disparities to the north and along the coast run to run depending on the stall. 

[HVSnowLover]

This is becoming like a 10 hour event but it really dumps for a short period of time. 

[Neblizzard]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

This is becoming like a 10 hour event but it really dumps for a short period of time. 

Canadian and GFS are 14-16 hours in duration 

[HeadInTheClouds]

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The blocking is legit. Wherever the SLP occludes it's going to start heading east. That's why we're seeing such disparities to the north and along the coast run to run depending on the stall. 

We will see. I don't deny the blocking. I have always been concerned about it being north of 84. I just don't think it will be due north and then due east with out some northerly component.