Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[uncle W]

winters with at least one 4" or more snowstorm in December for NYC...15 of 21 winters had 30" or more...only one was below 24"...

winter....Dec 4" snows....seasonal snow...

2017-18.......4.6"....................40.9"...

2013-14.......5.0"....................57.4"...

2010-11.....20.0".....................61.9"...

2009-10.....10.9"....................51.4"...

2008-09.......4.0"....................27.6"...

2005-06.......5.8"....................40.0"...

2003-04.....14.0"....................42.6"...

2002-03.......6.0" 5.0"............49.3"...

2000-01......12.0"....................35.0"...

1995-96.......7.7"....................75.6"...

1993-94.......4.0"...................53.4"...

1990-91........7.2"....................24.9"...

1984-85.......4.8"....................24.1"...

1969-70.......6.8"....................25.6"...

1968-69.......5.2"....................30.2"...

1966-67........7.1".....................51.5"...

1963-64.......6.3"....................44.7"...

1961-62.......6.2"....................18.1"...

1960-61.....15.2"....................54.7"...

1959-60.....13.7"....................39.2"...

1957-58.......7.5"....................44.7"...

[Tatamy]

18z NAM is staying with the event for Monday.  It has even increased its expected accumulations.

[lee59]

13 minutes ago, Oliviajames said:

Thanks Walt.  I am a PA northwest of Philly guy but always come to NY forum to hear your thoughts.  Hoping for a blizzard.  

I also like to hear your thoughts, knowledgeable and keeping things in perspective.

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

I dont see that at all.

If this tucks up all the way past Atlantic City we can absolutely be mixing NYC and east. Hopefully the EPS is a little overdone. 

[SnowGoose69]

49 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

EPS not as amped with Monday, that's why they're more amped Wednesday. 

Its actually less amped than the Op for Monday it seems.  I feel that has to be impacting the Wednesday result

[bluewave]

Looks like the 12z EPS was a little more tucked today vs yesterday due to the slightly weaker +PNA. The first really important run should be 12z Sunday when the energy is fully ashore in California. Then we watch to see what type of short term trends develop.

 

 

[sussexcountyobs]

31 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

18z NAM is staying with the event for Monday.  It has even increased its expected accumulations.

What is it showing for Monday in Sussex county NJ Tat? Also, if Monday's system is stronger will that be beneficial,  or detrimental for snow chances here in NW NJ for Wednesday?

[Stormlover74]

Mt holly

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Confidence is building in regards to the mid week coastal storm and its potential impacts. There remain some slight differences between
the models, such as timing and placement of the low, which could impact the final track and specifics with the forecast such as snow
amounts and the location of the rain/snow mixing line. But it`s becoming even more likely that a significant snowfall event will
occur for portions of our forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night.

The latest guidance has trended a little slower with the low, which could potentially lead to more snow as more precipitation could fall
coincidentally with the cold air. The models are in good agreement with the location of the high moving across southeast Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will set up the cold air across the region. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, an area of low pressure is forecast to move up the southeast coast into
the Mid Atlantic region, then continue to our east and out to sea Wednesday night into Thursday. The current track from the
model guidance keeps the low near the coast as it passes by.

This will bring precipitation to the entire forecast area, possibly starting as early as Wednesday morning, and continuing
through the day into Wednesday night. With the current track, the forecast is for snow to start virtually everywhere Wednesday
morning, before a mix and/or change to rain begins to lift northward into portions of southern/central Delaware and Maryland, as well as southern/eastern New Jersey; just south and
east of the I-95 corridor. Along and north of the I-95 corridor, the forecast is for snow during the duration of the
event. Eventually by Wednesday evening and overnight, cold air will move back in for all places, and everyone could change back
over to snow where it changed to a mix or rain during the day.
The precipitation types will be dependent on the track of the low and thermal profiles, so this could all change in the coming
days. Although we do not have specific snowfall amounts forecast yet, all guidance is pointing to a significant snowfall
accumulation for eastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey, northern Delaware and northern Maryland.

Another concern becoming more likely with the storm will be strong, gusty winds, with wind gusts of at least 25-35 mph possible,
especially near the coast where even higher gusts could occur. Speaking of the coast, with strong, steady northeast flow, and
being only two days removed from the new moon, there will also be a chance for coastal flooding.

On Thursday, the ECMWF hangs on to some snowfall as the low pulls away, but the GFS and Canadian remain dry. So there will remain a
chance of snow during the morning Thursday, but probably not of much significance since that will all be Wednesday and Wednesday night.

[Tatamy]

4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

What is it showing for Monday in Sussex county NJ Tat? Also, if Monday's system is stronger will that be beneficial,  or detrimental for snow chances here in NW NJ for Wednesday?

I posted the map in the other thread set up for that event.  As noted above we will know a lot more about Wednesday when the 12z runs come out tomorrow.

[jdj5211]

18Z GFS running....let's see if it holds serve

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The big concern in the city is what happens to all the outdoor dinning setups. If we do end up getting over a foot, where does all the snow go??? Interesting times on the way!!

[Tatamy]

18z Icon

[KeithB]

Hey guys,

Can someone please tell me the best way to get EURO snow maps? (like/similar to the ones that you guys are posting). I am willing to pay a monthly/yearly subscription.  It looks to me that this forum does not offer a service for hobbyists. I joined a $20 monthly subscription on storm vista, and although the GFS looks correct, the euro snow map is clearly incorrect. For example...when looking at the 12z EURO 168 hour snow map, the entire expanse of Long Island is in the 2 to 4 inch shading. Meanwhile, the 12z EURO has the entire expanse over 12 inches as per your maps. Idk what gives with this Storm Vista site or what to do/where to go.    Thanks!   Keith

 

[NEG NAO]

 

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

a trend developing ?

welp it was nice while it lasted here comes the nw trend.

[NEG NAO]

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

welp it was nice while it lasted here comes the nw trend.

Stop 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

a trend developing ?

1 run isnt a trend and we are still days away

[cleetussnow]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

welp it was nice while it lasted here comes the nw trend.

We got 24 hrs to figure out if this is real or not...

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

welp it was nice while it lasted here comes the nw trend.

you knew sooner then later there was going to be a problem...........thats why I posted earlier to be conservative with snowfall estimates

[White Gorilla]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

1 run isnt a trend and we are still days away

Windshield wipers guys for now.  Let's wait for better data sampling. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you knew sooner then later there was going to be a problem...........

Usually we're at the point the models lose the storm altogether only to bring it back

Verbatim its 33 and heavy snow at the peak near and west of the city

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

welp it was nice while it lasted here comes the nw trend.

You can't live and die by one model run brother.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, JoshSnow said:

That’s still over a foot of snow for the city. What’s wrong with that. One run not a trend

Its not the final solution. Could go back to snowier or trend wetter

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

it didn't lose the storm it just shifted it more inland coming up the coast - some models have been hinting at that for the last 24 hours at least...

Meanwhile the 12z operational Euro was the opposite. In HV the qpf was much lower than 00z so who knows. 

[crossbowftw3]

Less a trend and more the GFS deciding it wanted to know the feeling of a drunk guy stumbling around the alleyways trying to keep himself entertained 

 

Edit: still concerned about what the 12z euro wanted to show us

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

That’s still over a foot of snow for the city. What’s wrong with that. One run not a trend

Euro ensembles have been hinting at the northwest trend tucked in solutions - nothing wrong with it but the cutoff between a foot and basically next to nothing is really sharp.....

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Euro ensembles have been hinting at the northwest trend - nothing wrong with it but the cutoff between a foot and basically next to nothing is really sharp.....

That's probably just the limits of TT mapping ability. On pivotal the picture is much clearer.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

That’s still over a foot of snow for the city. What’s wrong with that. One run not a trend

NYC would probably stay all snow if that track verified to a T.  The GFS won't see the CAD or ageo impact in that event.  Probably would hold winds 040-050 in that setup and never flip

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NYC would probably stay all snow if that track verified to a T.  The GFS won't see the CAD or ageo impact in that event.  Probably would hold winds 040-050 in that setup and never flip

but people out on LI and in Monmouth and Ocean / Better luck next time....