Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[MJO812]

Euro is colder 

[SI Mailman]

[SI Mailman]

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

The tucking may really hurt places like DC, ACY, and possibly even near Philly but the confluence is strong enough to shunt it east that this area should be fine precip type wise  

[David-LI]

About a foot in the city Thursday morning for most in this sub on the euro, still a few hours to go 

[Nibor]

Closed off at 500mb over NYC/LI

[Rjay]

Crushed

[MJO812]

Euro hits a brick wall

[snowman19]

Just now, Rjay said:

Crushed

It’s going to be a monster hit, probably bigger than the GFS

[David-LI]

12z euro totals

[forkyfork]

that high is no joke. this is more likely to adjust se than nw imo

[Stormlover74]

More than 1.5" liquid

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, David-LI said:

12 euro totals

Wow the confluence is strong on this run, very supressed for HV/SNE

[SnoSki14]

Incredibly consistent with the track/outcome from all major models. 

It's unlikely this changes that much. 

[Franklin0529]

Looks more tucked and more rain mixing down the coast. Hopefully the high is under done

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

that high is no joke. this is more likely to adjust se than nw imo

Yup agreed they should hope the storm trends stronger to buckle the confluence a bit. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Incredibly consistent with the track/outcome from all major models. 

It's unlikely this changes that much. 

Hush

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Looks more tucked and more rain mixing down the coast. Hopefully the high is under done

Depends where you are, for northern parts of the subforum want a weaker high, for jersey shore want a stronger high. NYC Metro in a great spot with this.   

[Nibor]

Looks like the storm occluded further south. Southern NE snow totals cut down as a result. Hopefully that high isn't too strong.

[wdrag]

For sure no KU mention in any topic.  Could be one cycle, especially since the GEFS has neg tilt close off going here... early Thu,  but an EC op southward slide noted. Not going to comment on whether this is correct but it is possible if the 500 short wave shatters too quickly.  Still big but at 96 hrs+... just good to let things sit and stew for a couple of model cycles and allow the ensembles to guide. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Poughkeepsie area just went from 18 on 00z to 6 this run. Concerning for northern folks. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Looks like the storm occluded further south. Southern NE snow totals cut down as a result. Hopefully that high isn't too strong.

That's why strong -NAO/AO blocking is actually more favorable for us and the mid-atlantic than them. 

Sometimes it's even better for those south of the NYC metro.

[rossi]

I told Walt the other day typically in these type storms NYC south do very well

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Poughkeepsie area just went from 18 on 00z to 6 this run. Concerning for northern folks. 

I'm getting Jonas flashbacks. Let's hope this doesn't keep up.

[White Gorilla]

I will take my 5 inches even if the rest of you get a foot.  At least the ground will be white.  But please no more SE.  

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Poughkeepsie area just went from 18 on 00z to 6 this run. Concerning for northern folks. 

0Z will probably be a better indicator of whether this is typical model waffling or an actual trend 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

0Z will probably be a better indicator of whether this is typical model waffling or an actual trend 

Agreed, if it keeps up by then and especially once the wave is in play then that will be the time to get nervous.*

 

*for us north of 84, and interest picking up closer to NYC.

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I'm getting Jonas flashbacks. Let's hope this doesn't keep up.

Hopefully not and I don't think so but the possibility of a further south and east  trend where NYC metro gets the goods and we get much less is very real 

[friedmators]

I am at the 78/287 intersection in NJ. I can’t remember the last time I didn’t have BL/ML concerns. 6 or 26” I really don’t want to be a 850 line jockey for once.


.

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Agreed, if it keeps up by then and especially once the wave is in play then that will be the time to get nervous.*

 

*for us north of 84, and interest picking up closer to NYC.

Yes. I'm not usually that optimistic but it would actually take a lot to go wrong for the City not to do really well with this storm. Its the northern and southern areas of the subforum where some shifts will make big impacts.