Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Stormlover74]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:27 PM, Ericjcrash said:

Canadian is ridiculous 

Expand  

Tucked in for sure 

[MJO812]

Gefs

[Allsnow]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:28 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Tucked in for sure 

Expand  

Monster hit for nyc 

[Allsnow]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:22 PM, billgwx said:

GFS is notorious for overdoing this confluence via too strong of a polar jet. If models overdo the snowfall across southern Canada this weekend that too could lead to too strong/cold of a high.

Expand  

Bill what’s your thoughts on the gefs, ggem, eps, euro, and icon all showing a similar evolution? 

[uncle W]

take these clown maps and cut the amounts in half and it is still a nice mid December storm...as far as a white Christmas goes we would need a week long cold snap after the storm or another storm the following week...

[Brian5671]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:30 PM, Allsnow said:

Monster hit for nyc 

Expand  

[jm1220]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:26 PM, crossbowftw3 said:

I've seen it happen before with Pi day 2017. It will be an absolute nightmare to keep up with clearing wise.

Expand  

This storm never gets brought up in any forum here ever again, kay? (3.5" here. very fast over to rain when 12" was predicted). I was in PA a few days later and saw winter heaven, so I'm fully aware how much that storm sucked.  

[crossbowftw3]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:32 PM, jm1220 said:

This storm never gets brought up in any forum here ever again, kay? (3.5" here. very fast over to rain when 12" was predicted). I was in PA a few days later and saw winter heaven, so I'm fully aware how much that storm sucked.  

Expand  

It was our payback for missing Jonas, ha.

 

If this is your payback for us taking Pi day I really wouldn't mind. 95 deserves its next big storm.

[Rjay]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:31 PM, Allsnow said:

Bill what’s your thoughts on the gefs, ggem, eps, euro, and icon all showing a similar evolution? 

Expand  

You were a little more blunt than I was lol.  I agree with you 100%.   If the gfs is wrong than they're all wrong on the synoptic evolution.   

[Allsnow]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:35 PM, Rjay said:

You were a little more blunt than I was lol.  I agree with you 100%.   If the gfs is wrong than they're all wrong on the evolution.   

Expand  

 

[jm1220]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:36 PM, Allsnow said:

 

Expand  

Yes, keep those right there please. Like I said, I see this trying to hug up to near Cape May and then confluence shunts it out. It's quite a vigorous S/W spawning this beast. 

[David-LI]

What storm setup in the past looks like this upcoming one?

[cleetussnow]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:17 PM, Rjay said:

Lol nice Bill

Expand  

Someone slapped me with a weenie when I brought up the 256 GFS.  Oh well.  

[jm1220]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:47 PM, David-LI said:

What storm setup in the past looks like this upcoming one?

Expand  

To me it's a subdued and quicker Jan 1996/Feb 1983 setup. Strong confluence out ahead of a powerful trough and shortwave. The PNA ridge isn't what those were and this is a quicker pattern so I wouldn't expect those same amounts but for who this does hit it'll be a crusher. 

[SnowGoose69]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:47 PM, David-LI said:

What storm setup in the past looks like this upcoming one?

Expand  

Its sort of February 2003 but with a strong surface low and a more dynamic setup.  That storm was purely overrunning

[MJO812]

[Rjay]

[Rjay]

^not so tucked

[Allsnow]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:50 PM, Rjay said:

Expand  

Something for the tucked in crew to chew on 

[MJO812]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:53 PM, Rjay said:

^not so tucked

Expand  

Rather it show this =)

[Rjay]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:53 PM, Allsnow said:

Something for the tucked in crew to chew on 

Expand  

Wonder if this is 6 hours after it starts sliding east off the coast of AC

[Allsnow]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:54 PM, Rjay said:

Wonder if this is 6 hours after it starts sliding east off the coast of AC

Expand  

Could very well be true 

[Yaz]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:53 PM, Allsnow said:

Something for the tucked in crew to chew on 

Expand  

500mb must not be as wound up as some other models, with only 1006 mb surface low?

[snowman19]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:59 PM, Yaz said:

500mb must not be as wound up as some other models, with only 1006 mb surface low?

Expand  

So far today, the Ukie is an outlier. It’s pretty weak and suppressed, unlike all the other runs we’ve seen so far 

[jets]

I’d rather have that than being a big hugger

[wizard021]

  On 12/12/2020 at 5:03 PM, snowman19 said:

So far today, the Ukie is an outlier. It’s pretty weak and suppressed, unlike all the other runs we’ve seen so far 

Expand  

Wrong cmc doesn't close the 500 like 00z . But it is noise at this point .

[Rjay]

  On 12/12/2020 at 5:03 PM, snowman19 said:

So far today, the Ukie is an outlier. It’s pretty weak and suppressed, unlike all the other runs we’ve seen so far 

Expand  

We'll see what the hi-res Ukie shows shortly.  I have a feeling the low is off the coast of AC at hr 114.  

[bluewave]

The high over New England will really fight to hold on with a -4.5 SD 50/50 vortex. I wonder if this is close to the record for mid-December?

11  500  4815 

[HeadInTheClouds]

  On 12/12/2020 at 5:07 PM, Rjay said:

We'll see what the hi-res Ukie shows shortly.  I have a feeling the low is off the coast of AC at hr 114.  

Expand  

Im sure. Most models have low sliding east at 17/12z also. I'm sure thats the evolution of this as well. 

[Yaz]

  On 12/12/2020 at 5:03 PM, snowman19 said:

So far today, the Ukie is an outlier. It’s pretty weak and suppressed, unlike all the other runs we’ve seen so far 

Expand  

UK usually correlates closer to EC than GFS , if memory serves; so shall be interesting to watch evolution; esp. what impact Monday’s “storm” has on the Wed. puppy.