Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Allsnow]

The confluence is only going to let this get so far north. Classic track for the metro for a historic winter storm on the gfs 

[Stormlover74]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:05 PM, Franklin0529 said:

Even for the coast? Looked like lot mixing along coastal plains

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Coastal Monmouth would mix for a time yes

[MJO812]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:08 PM, Rjay said:

Just your average 15-30" blizzard

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This would be more than what I got in the last 2 winters

[Allsnow]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:08 PM, Brian5671 said:

wow.   Still have to worry about a possible shift north though....always seems to happen 24-48 hrs (like it is with Monday's event-that was nothing 2 days ago b/c it was OTS)

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We don’t have a block for the Monday storm or a strong High to our north 

[Allsnow]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:09 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Coastal Monmouth would mix for a time yes

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Very seldom will the entire state of NJ stay all snow in a major winter storm 

[jm1220]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:09 PM, Allsnow said:

The confluence is only going to let this get so far north. Classic track for the metro for a historic winter storm on the gfs 

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Yes but we REALLY need that confluence. It weakens just a little and it becomes an I-90 storm like we’ve seen so many of. So far so good though 

[SnoSki14]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:09 PM, Allsnow said:

We don’t have a block for the Monday storm or a strong High to our north 

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Yeah it's not an apples to apples comparison. 

[bluewave]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:08 PM, Allsnow said:

Omg 

 

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Plenty of high octane fuel if we can hold that BM track.

 

[SI Mailman]

Always good to see the models displaying a HECS under 120 hours out.  

[Brian5671]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:09 PM, Allsnow said:

We don’t have a block for the Monday storm or a strong High to our north 

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Fair points.   I'm just trying to temper my expectations...LOL

[Rjay]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:10 PM, jm1220 said:

Yes but we REALLY need that confluence. It weakens just a little and it becomes an I-90 storm like we’ve seen so many of. So far so good though 

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We've been through a lot this year. We know things could trend in the wrong direction but this set up is legit and we have a bit more of a margin for error than usual.   Let's weenie out with this one. 

[Allsnow]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:10 PM, jm1220 said:

Yes but we REALLY need that confluence. It weakens just a little and it becomes an I-90 storm like we’ve seen so many of. So far so good though 

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If we didn’t have it this would be a cutter. It’s all about how far north the primary gets. The trend has been stronger with the confluence 

[Allsnow]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:12 PM, Rjay said:

We've been through a lot this year. We know things could trend in the wrong direction but this set up is legit and we have a bit more of a margin for error than usual.   Let's weenie out with this one. 

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Exactly!!!!. This is the best set up we have had since March 2018. Throw all the bad voodoo of last winter out!!!! This isn’t December 2019

[Stormlover74]

Amazingly this all falls in just over 12 hours on the gfs

[Rjay]

Insane frontogenesis on the gfs  

[billgwx]

  On 12/12/2020 at 6:17 AM, cleetussnow said:

GFS picked this up when it was at hr. 256.  Unusual to still be there even now.

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And the ECMWF long range suggested the idea of a mid December NYC snow event in early November!!

[romba]

Cut those totals in half and we’re still talking about a BEAST of a storm wow

[crossbowftw3]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:15 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Amazingly this all falls in just over 12 hours on the gfs

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Pi Day 2017 I had 26 inches fall in 15 hours >> constant ~2 inches an hour with some hours where it fell at 4-5" per hour. Have to imagine if this plays out similar results may occur.

[Rjay]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:16 PM, billgwx said:

And the ECMWF long range suggested the idea of a mid December NYC snow event in early November!!

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Lol nice Bill

[jm1220]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:12 PM, Rjay said:

We've been through a lot this year. We know things could trend in the wrong direction but this set up is legit and we have a bit more of a margin for error than usual.   Let's weenie out with this one. 

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Oh absolutely. That’s a monster on the GFS. So pumped for something like that. 

[billgwx]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:09 PM, Allsnow said:

The confluence is only going to let this get so far north. Classic track for the metro for a historic winter storm on the gfs 

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GFS is notorious for overdoing this confluence via too strong of a polar jet. If models overdo the snowfall across southern Canada this weekend that too could lead to too strong/cold of a high.

[billgwx]

  On 12/12/2020 at 3:55 PM, bluewave said:

We’ll be good to go if these solutions hold once within the NAM’s best range. The NAM has been our go to model for snowfall with the numerous Euro misses in recent years. I can still remember the NAM bringing home the goods on the January 2016 blizzard while the Euro was too suppressed.

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Agree but would also like to see the SREF there too as in Jan 2016.

[kat5hurricane]

Now THAT was a Mother of God run, that's a Mother and Father of God run.

[jm1220]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:23 PM, kat5hurricane said:

Now THAT was a Mother of God run, that's a Mother and Father of God run.

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15-20" of snow in 12 hours pretty much? Uh, yes. 

[Rjay]

Drool

 

 

 

[Ericjcrash]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:23 PM, kat5hurricane said:

Now THAT was a Mother of God run, that's a Mother and Father of God run.

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  On 12/12/2020 at 4:23 PM, kat5hurricane said:

Now THAT was a Mother of God run, that's a Mother and Father of God run.

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Wait till you see the Canadian

[kat5hurricane]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:12 PM, Rjay said:

We've been through a lot this year. We know things could trend in the wrong direction but this set up is legit and we have a bit more of a margin for error than usual.   Let's weenie out with this one. 

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I'll run outside weenie out if this run verifies.

[crossbowftw3]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:24 PM, jm1220 said:

15-20" of snow in 12 hours pretty much? Uh, yes. 

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I've seen it happen before with Pi day 2017. It will be an absolute nightmare to keep up with clearing wise.

[Ericjcrash]

Canadian is ridiculous 

[Rjay]

  On 12/12/2020 at 4:22 PM, billgwx said:

GFS is notorious for overdoing this confluence via too strong of a polar jet. If models overdo the snowfall across southern Canada this weekend that too could lead to too strong/cold of a high.

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Thanks for the info Bill.  I will keep an eye on this on the other models.