Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Rjay]

This is our first significant area-wide threat in a couple years.  The tracking is the best part.  Let's continue to keep it fun.  I'm glad there's been barely any bickering.  Keep it up guys.  

 

You all deserve this storm.  Let's hope it doesnt break any weenie hearts.

[greenmtnwx]

17 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Snow totals summary: Mon.  +  Wed./Thurs.    EURO   2.5" + 14.0",   CMC   0 0" + 17.0",    GFS  0.5" + 13.0".       Non gust winds still 18-25mph.

Cautions......Two fast movers, borderline S/R for City, but 2"+ to work with.     

Euro is running between 15-35 for a week.   GFS still goes to the 60's on Christmas.     With snow still on the ground?!    Come on man. >>>>>>>   The 06Z just lost 30 degrees on the Highs for 25th,26th. !!!

Amended:        Cobb Method   GFS 0Z is all Snow for NYC............. 21" in 19 hours!

Nah, look again, the second is not a fast mover. It’s an 18 hour snowstorm in NYC. Take a look up north, 50/50 and NAO ridging block won’t allow it to zip. Pay attention to that. 

[David-LI]

Any word on 06z euro?

[greenmtnwx]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Any word on 06z euro?

Ticked SE slightly. Not as tucked and then drifts ENE. About as perfect as you get for nyc 

[Rjay]

As of now I'm not too worried about mixing/rain until you get way out east on LI and from Toms River on south.  The high to the north is legit.  Fresh cold air is always a great thing to see modeled.  Obviously, if the storm ends up super amped, these thoughts will change and coastal areas would see precip type issues.  

[DaveTinNY]

Glad I took this coming week off.  Should be interesting.  

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think he’s just saying the system would track more tucked with a weaker PNA.  The ICON verbatim would probably still be 5-10 inches of snow for anyone north of Sandy Hook and west of Islip before they changeover over but the ICON of course doesn’t resolve the cold air correctly and has like 1 hour of snow.  This event barring some sort of massive change in several parameters even if it flips to liquid will probably be in the category of a January 87 March 93 February 2014 in regards to how much snow you see before a flip 

also like Feb 1994 where we flipped to light rain after 11 or so inches of snow.  There was also a December storm where we got 9 inches of snow and then flipped to rain sometime during the mid 80s and another one in the early 90s. Feb 1995 also comes to mind.

 

[Ericjcrash]

I'm starting to wonder if someone gets a decent sleetstorm if its tucked. Super cold airmass yes, but in the back of my head seeing the low pretty far SW I can see some pinging.

[wdrag]

29 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, its going to be pretty windy and that's always underplayed when people assume ratios.

Measuring difficulties with powder blowing (multiple in the open area to get representative new depth every 6 hours), and in the wet plastered areas... might be a little easier.  Tipping buckets might get junked up with wet snow NJ/LI??? .  I won't detail now since uncertainty, but sometimes NWS heated comms antennae dishes get snow covered with heavy WET snowfall rates and we'd have to go out and broom sweep the snow off so comms wouldn't be impacted.  

[Ericjcrash]

Its going to be hard to erode the cold at the surface for sure as that's often overstated but mid level warming is often underdone. Either way we're lucky to be tracking something with this much potential that even if it came NW most if not all cash in significantly regardless. 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, wdrag said:

Measuring difficulties with powder blowing (multiple in the open area to get representative new depth every 6 hours), and in the wet plastered areas... might be a little easier.  Tipping buckets might get junked up with wet snow NJ/LI??? .  I won't detail now since uncertainty, but sometimes NWS heated comms antennae dishes get snow covered with heavy WET snowfall rates and we'd have to go out and broom sweep the snow off so comms wouldn't be impacted.  

I'm under the impression that strong winds basically break up dendrites, could be wrong but that makes sense to my uneducated self.

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I'm under the impression that strong winds basically break up dendrites, could be wrong but that makes sense to my uneducated self.

You're under the right impression lol. 

[Blizzardo]

6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I'm under the impression that strong winds basically break up dendrites, could be wrong but that makes sense to my uneducated self.

Yes, wind kills ratios.  I usually dont expect more than a 10:1 in any situation. 

[Blizzardo]

The big daddy storms always tend to have a mix period because the temp is prime, Borderline smelling that rain.  Like Walt said yesterday,  cold air is dry... and usually will win in a battle.

[Stormlover74]

I'm liking this event but I'd feel more comfortable being 25-50 miles northwest as this still has time to come further west and mix or change in the city and 95 corridor and especially the coast. 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I'm liking this event but I'd feel more comfortable being 25-50 miles northwest as this still has time to come further west and mix or change in the city and 95 corridor and especially the coast. 

Feeling a bit nervous being 100 miles inland in Sullivan, still like what I'm seeing but undoubtedly need to wait for the wave to be properly sampled 

[wdrag]

Not sure of the impact... but the 06z EPS members for 12z/17 .. not quite as intense a storm but many members in the NYC bight.  We may know more in 24 hours. May mean slightly less qpf near the storm center, and also more option of ice/rain up to I80??  I don't know. 

 

[wdrag]

19 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I'm under the impression that strong winds basically break up dendrites, could be wrong but that makes sense to my uneducated self.

I've heard that but Im not sure if there is science to that effect. 

[NJsnow89]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Not sure of the impact... but the 06z EPS members for 12z/17 .. not quite as intense a storm but many members in the NYC bight.  We may know more in 24 hours. May mean slightly less qpf near the storm center, and also more option of ice/rain up to I80??  I don't know. 

 

Wow. Those members came way west. Mixing issues 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Not sure of the impact... but the 06z EPS members for 12z/17 .. not quite as intense a storm but many members in the NYC bight.  We may know more in 24 hours. May mean slightly less qpf near the storm center, and also more option of ice/rain up to I80??  I don't know. 

 

 

Those super tucked solutions would be crush jobs for @Juliancolton and crew while I cry snow weenie tears and @forkyfork laughs.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Not sure of the impact... but the 06z EPS members for 12z/17 .. not quite as intense a storm but many members in the NYC bight.  We may know more in 24 hours. May mean slightly less qpf near the storm center, and also more option of ice/rain up to I80??  I don't know. 

 

Hey Walt did those come more NW? If the NW trend started already not a good sign. 

[Rjay]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Hey Walt did those come more NW? If the NW trend started already not a good sign. 

I wouldn't call it a trend until a few more cycles show the same thing.  The mean is in a nice spot currently for a big event for the entire subforum. 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Hey Walt did those come more NW? If the NW trend started already not a good sign. 

That's a lot of NW members, but wouldn't ledge jump yet.

[Sn0waddict]

Euro has been consistently tucking the low and then pushing it east , which is what I imagine most of the members would be doing.  Though if it tucks into NYC before pushing east then we obviously will have problems lol.

[rossi]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey Walt did those come more NW? If the NW trend started already not a good sign. 

There is no trend this far out- each model run changes!

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I wouldn't call it a trend until a few more cycles show the same thing.  The mean is in a nice spot currently for a big event for the entire subforum. 

Novice question but would "occlusion" stop mixing even if very tucked?

[crossbowftw3]

4 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

I would rather be in New York City than in Monticello for this event. This is a true classic coastal bomb with plenty of cold air. Boxing Day blizzard wanna be

Maybe. But here inland we will likely be in the better spot....but we need to wait for the wave to get properly sampled before either camp can say for sure what will happen.

[Ericjcrash]

3 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

I would rather be in New York City than in Monticello for this event. This is a true classic coastal bomb with plenty of cold air. Boxing Day blizzard wanna be

That's your prerogative and maybe plays out that way but beware of the tuck.

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Not sure of the impact... but the 06z EPS members for 12z/17 .. not quite as intense a storm but many members in the NYC bight.  We may know more in 24 hours. May mean slightly less qpf near the storm center, and also more option of ice/rain up to I80??  I don't know. 

 

Closer look. IMO i80 would have no issues with any of those tracks 

[Allsnow]

Gfs