Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[TJW014]

Boy did I pick a great time to get home from college.  This will be interesting to watch. Excited! 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I'd normally  if a low was headed into Cape May but this airmass we can probably afford it. The confluence would likely send it east from there. Disregard snow maps, from this range we're looking at the overall evolution. 

Some of these tucked in lows have produced the most in the past if the right setup/airmass is in place. 

Hoping for a nice Euro run tonight to round things up.

[Gravity Wave]

Nothing to see here, just the UKIE dropping 2" of liquid equivalent for the City and the coast:

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Some of these tucked in lows have produced the most in the past if the right setup/airmass is in place. 

Hoping for a nice Euro run tonight to round things up.

Yup but only tucked in to a point. Beyond Cape May and NYC south/east gets nervous. But as of now we have the huge high and confluent upper air pattern to help keep that from happening-forces the low east. 

[Ericjcrash]

2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Nothing to see here, just the UKIE dropping 2" of liquid equivalent for the City and the coast:

What a crushing, way way WNW from last run.

[wizard021]

57 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

GEM raises you borderline HECS

1979 presidents day 1 : 

http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=1979&mm=02&dd=19&run=12

Both had a shitty pna , but strong nao and a very intense mid level low. That's what could happen , widespread mecs.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

What a crushing, way way WNW from last run.

Too bad no Kuchera snow map here.

Keep in mind this includes whatever rain we get tomorrow. 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Too bad no Kuchera snow map here.

Keep in mind this includes whatever rain we get tomorrow. 

https://weathermadness.com/2019/01/18/kuchera-method-for-snow-amounts-seems-to-be-working-best/

[Ericjcrash]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Too bad no Kuchera snow map here.

Keep in mind this includes whatever rain we get tomorrow. 

No koooch but not needed.

[RU848789]

Not sure I can recall such model consensus 5-days out from the GFS/CMC/UK for a major winter storm for the Philly-NYC region.  I assume the Euro will still show such a storm too.  Let's hope this one isn't only a digital snowstorm.  

[kat5hurricane]

I would normally temper expectations this far out but usually when there's such a strong model consensus within 5 days and at least some room for error to work with, it's a strong indication that this should be at least a significant snow event for a good portion of the area. There's still lots that can go wrong, but the excitement is starting to build.

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

I would normally temper expectations this far out but usually when there's such a strong model consensus within 5 days and at least some room for error to work with, it's a strong indication that this should be at least a significant snow event for a good portion of the area. There's still lots that can go wrong, but the excitement is starting to build.

GFS picked this up when it was at hr. 256.  Unusual to still be there even now.

[MJO812]

Here comes the euro

[Ericjcrash]

Big hit once again

[SI Mailman]

coming in later like the CMC, but looks to deliver the goods.  At least I'll get most of my stuff delivered on Wednesday before the storm really gets going verbatim on this run.  

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

coming in later like the CMC, but looks to deliver the goods.  At least I'll get most of my stuff delivered on Wednesday before the storm really gets going verbatim on this run.  

Yeah its mostly an overnight event but keeps going into Thursday afternoon 

[RU848789]

34 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Not sure I can recall such model consensus 5-days out from the GFS/CMC/UK for a major winter storm for the Philly-NYC region.  I assume the Euro will still show such a storm too.  Let's hope this one isn't only a digital snowstorm.  

Make that GFS/CMC/UK/Euro consensus.  Boom!  Euro also shows 1-3" along 95 and 3-5" NW of 95 in NJ/EPA/SENY on Monday.  

[SI Mailman]

992 Low on ACY at 12Z

[Ericjcrash]

Tucked monster that's in no rush to leave

[Rjay]

For the weens

 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Tucked monster that's in no rush to leave

What's the temps look like near the coast? Taste the rain?

[jm1220]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

992 Low on ACY at 12Z

Man how do we make that be 24 hours out... With the low there though we REALLY need the confluence. If not it's snow to rain unless inland. 

[MJO812]

[Stormlover74]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Man how do we make that be 24 hours out... With the low there though we REALLY need the confluence. If not it's snow to rain unless inland. 

The low is quite jumpy

[RU848789]

Meh, I'll take it, lol...(have to subtract Monday's few inches of snow from this, along/NW of 95).  

[jm1220]

Just now, MJO812 said:

The blocking will be key, the low will try to tuck as far north as it can. 

[David-LI]

In the end I was hoping that secondary low would strengthen and hang on much longer. What happened there? 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Man how do we make that be 24 hours out... With the low there though we REALLY need the confluence. If not it's snow to rain unless inland. 

Weenie comment but I really want this to close off south of us

 

[jm1220]

Just now, Rjay said:

Weenie comment but I really want this to close off south of us

 

Again confluence is key. Wave 1-have no idea how that turns out this run but it would help suppressing wave 2 a little more. Yup, that's a little further north than ideal. 

[wizard021]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Weenie comment but I really want this to close off south of us

 

That's a blizzard for nyc , it really tucks in. All layers are cold, and we start the day in the teens on the euro high res.