Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[White Gorilla]

19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I remember that like it was yesterday unfortunately. Thats not going to happen this time. 

I hope not.  Especially not after the dud of last winter.  

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Thank you! Also, with confluence pressing down more each run, wouldn’t that trend this further south if anything?

That's a very strong shortwave interacting with strong confluent flow. 

Pretty ideal MECS setup honestly. 

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Quick question- don’t these types of storms usually trend north in time? Worried about the last min north trend which may warm us up. 

The thing about blocking patterns is that they're very stable. 

I don't anticipate a lot of changes between now and then regarding track. 

[Stormlover74]

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

That's a very strong shortwave interacting with strong confluent flow. 

Pretty ideal MECS setup honestly. 

GEM raises you borderline HECS

[NEG NAO]

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

[jm1220]

Just now, Nibor said:

Still have to give it to the end of the weekend before the Mother of God gifs lol

[SnoSki14]

I noticed the CMC is more amped than the GFS because of the way it handles Mondays wave.

I'd be willing to forego Monday if we get a bomb on Wednesday.

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still have to give it to the end of the weekend before the Mother of God gifs lol

Fair enough. I have plenty in the backlog ready to fire.

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Still have to give it to the end of the weekend before the Mother of God gifs lol

Idk if I was still in city if the Euro holds I'd go for it...

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The thing about blocking patterns is that they're very stable. 

I don't anticipate a lot of changes between now and then regarding track. 

Plenty that can go wrong here still. The confluence/high could be weaker meaning less cold air, there could be less of a PNA ridge, the S/W forming this system hasn't been fully sampled yet. To me it's nice to look at and there's real potential for a MECS IMO but hard to really jump in until late Sun or Mon when all ingredients are fully sampled. But we've also had real potential fall apart at the end (2/5/10 for example).

[White Gorilla]

Fun to track regardless of outcome.  All the best to all.  At least there is huge potential. 

[chrisNJ]

Not sure what ultimately will happen with snow amounts but I do predict likely time outs, weenie posts, and storm mode interruptions over the next few days. Honestly I love we have something to track given the negativity about this winter thus far  before she even got rolling. Give me 4-6 right now and all is good. #lurker

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I noticed the CMC is more amped than the GFS because of the way it handles Mondays wave.

I'd be willing to forego Monday if we get a bomb on Wednesday.

I'm still thinking we want a more amped Mon system. CMC suppresses it from what I saw. The more amped Mon system could flatten the flow behind it a little more and reinforce the confluence and cold air. You can see that the Wed system tries to hug/cut initially but is forced east by that confluence. Hopefully it can end up a little further north for our inland guys but keep the R/S line well offshore. I don't see a total miss here due to how vigorous the trough and wave is coming in-it'll put up a lot of resistance. 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I'm still thinking we want a more amped Mon system. CMC suppresses it from what I saw. The more amped Mon system could flatten the flow behind it a little more and reinforce the confluence and cold air. You can see that the Wed system tries to hug/cut initially but is forced east by that confluence. Hopefully it can end up a little further north for our inland guys but keep the R/S line well offshore. I don't see a total miss here due to how vigorous the trough and wave is coming in-it'll put up a lot of resistance. 

Airmass so good anyone NW of the low should be safe. Tuck baby tuck. We all win.

[Stormlover74]

Ukie

 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie

 

Nice 

[forkyfork]

we're obviously getting a KU

[qg_omega]

Just now, forkyfork said:

we're obviously getting a KU

Still going for rain?

[SI Mailman]

What was the amount of snow needed by New Year's that NYC needed to have a 30 year 30 inch average?  

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, SI Mailman said:

What was the amount of snow needed by New Year's that NYC needed to have a 30 year 30 inch average?  

Iirc like 17 or so

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Still going for rain?

a wish is not a forecast   
this has a lot going for it. cold sfc high north of us, -nao, -ao

[qg_omega]

Just now, forkyfork said:

a wish is not a forecast   
this has a lot going for it. cold sfc high north of us, -nao, -ao

I’m seeing heart shaped CAD for the first time in years

[Gravity Wave]

GEFS has improved from 0z. Remember the 2 camps I talked about? The eastern, weaker, progressive camp has shrunk significantly and is now a small minority while the stronger, west, amped camp has grown:

The great high in Canada is preventing the amped solution from being too warm for the City and much of the coast.

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, Gravity Wave said:

GEFS has improved from 0z. Remember the 2 camps I talked about? The eastern, weaker, progressive camp has shrunk significantly and is now a small minority while the stronger, west, amped camp has grown:

The great high in Canada is preventing the amped solution from being too warm for the City and much of the coast.

Being this far north, I can dig the lean. Airmass being so cold so can the coast.

[Snowlover11]

man what a run so far, its almost to good to be true, if only we where 24 hours out, still holding my excitement but things are looking good!

[Gravity Wave]

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Being this far north, I can dig the lean. Airmass being so cold so can the coast.

The source airmass is fantastic, most of SE Canada is below 0 degrees at the height of the storm. If we can get this to close off and deepen a la CMC, hence drawing in even more of that cold air, we could get an incredible result.

[TriPol]

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Still going for rain?

 

I feel bad for people in Montauk.

 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Being this far north, I can dig the lean. Airmass being so cold so can the coast.

I'd normally  if a low was headed into Cape May but this airmass we can probably afford it. The confluence would likely send it east from there. Disregard snow maps, from this range we're looking at the overall evolution. 

This isn't a fantasy model porn setup I'd typically piss on, for sure. I don't see a Jan 1996 out of this but still something impressive.