wdrag Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Yes, 18z NAM continues at 42-54 hours... probably going to happen. NAEFS came north and a sharp cutoff nil near AVP-BAF. Melting beneath should suppress amounts a bit, especially lower elevations but ground should be white near NYC by 4PM Monday... the 12z/12 EC op was the least interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS looked good for 2-4” with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: GFS looked good for 2-4” with this? Its warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Its warm I would be very careful using GFS surface temps but yes this would be quite marginal. I think there is a zone somewhere in S PA, inland NJ that can get 3-5 quick inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 NAM looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: NAM looks decent Yeah quite a bit colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 NAM looks good for north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Anyone have the snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3k looks like it will come north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 NAM has some 5-7" amounts across NNJ at 10-1 ratio....an inch or two in NYC....much better than previous runs though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Gfs looks good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The more amped with this the better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 UKMET caved a bit tonight as did the RGEM. Both had been total misses til tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Euro not impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6z gfs unimpressive. Areas north and west with elevation could see some accumulations but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Good Sunday morning everyone with probably small interest in Monday as compared to Wednesday-Thursday, Added the 00z/13 SPC HREF 8 member ensemble for snowfall Monday, and the 06z/13 HRRX variable density snowfall. A period of snow is expected between 8AM and 4PM Monday across most of the forum, mostly melting on pavement due to daylight hours (except possible hazardous plowable 2-3 inches in the hilly areas of western-nw NJ and ne PA south of I84). Snow should eventually accumulate on all untreated non paved surfaces. Range of accumulation in our forum area 1/2-~4". I think the heaviest will be hilly terrain of nw NJ and ne PA s of I84. The I95 corridor may start as rain or a rain/snow mix but eventually go over to snow before ending. It's possible that many areas in the northern third of NJ across LI and maybe s coastal CT will see a short period or two of half mile moderate snow with 1/2" accumulation in an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFSv16 and HRRRx are quite beafy for this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12z HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Nam is north for tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is north for tomorrow Those snow maps for tomorrow on the NAM are overdone in the immediate NYC metro IMO - soundings and surface temps don't support the amounts listed..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Understood that NYC proper may not accumulate, but I appreciate the continued discussion. Out this way we could be looking at 3-4” that might not melt before Wednesday. Maybe need to plow a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Those snow maps for tomorrow on the NAM are overdone in the immediate NYC metro IMO - soundings and surface temps don't support the amounts listed..... Surface temps are around 34 in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Surface temps are around 34 in NYC there is one way the NAM could be close to correct with these amounts is if later in the afternoon close to sunset or after there is a heavier burst of snow for a few hours and temps slide closer to freezing or below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: there is one way the NAM could be close to correct with these amounts is if later in the afternoon close to sunset or after there is a heavier burst of snow for a few hours and temps slide closer to freezing or below White rain most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 31 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Those snow maps for tomorrow on the NAM are overdone in the immediate NYC metro IMO - soundings and surface temps don't support the amounts listed..... Definitely expect some snow in the nearby suburbs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 If I see a period of wet snow that accumulates at all tomorrow I’ll call that a win. Very marginal setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Here's some guidance...not gospel. Lets see if this guidance is too cold and less snow occurs NYC area down to I-195 in NJ than shown here. Please use the legends for your area. I definitely think there will be a period or two of 1/2mile moderate snow and 1/2" accumulation/hr in the region near and west of NYC. Decent banding will occur and there is some lift centered in the ideal DGZ. Have a look at the 12z/13 NAM 3k profile for LGA lift and temp. Later, Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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