SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 3k NAM is pretty close to a decent hit. Toasty, yes but still. Real close. NAM for LGA shows about 37/30 37/29 when precip arrives. I still think its just a hair too warm. Would need to see those DPs be more in the lower 20s. There is no question the arrival time of the event mid to late morning which allows for clear skies the night before and prevention of any heating during the ensuing day helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 ICON going bonkers on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: ICON going bonkers on Monday. If that came to fruition I would not want to be in places like interior MA/North of SWF/NW CT for Wednesday. The stronger Monday is more likelihood Wed could be mostly a NYC south event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If that came to fruition I would not want to be in places like interior MA/North of SWF/NW CT for Wednesday. The stronger Monday is more likelihood Wed could be mostly a NYC south event Yeah, I'm not digging that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, I'm not digging that. Sure enough ICON came in colder Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Look at how much stronger the 50/50 low got adding more confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Sure enough ICON came in colder Wednesday But still blasts the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: But still blasts the interior Yeah I'd sign on the dotted line. Ripping at 16° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Monday's storm looking really healthy on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Not much to stop the Mon event from keeping trending north. We’ll see what happens I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 yeah, this ended up with a 987 low just east of the benchmark on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Not much to stop the Mon event from keeping trending north. We’ll see what happens I guess. Cold air and confluence is pressing here, storm will scoot south of us...storm can trend stronger, but with orientation of trough and pressing cold, can’t get too much more north (a la NAM that squashes it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: Cold air and confluence is pressing here, storm will scoot south of us...along with a cold high in optimal spot (just north of Canadian border) It's still quite warm. 34-35 surface and just below freezing 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Cold air and confluence is pressing here, storm will scoot south of us...storm can trend stronger, but with orientation of trough and pressing cold, can’t get too much more north (a la NAM that squashes it) If we’re talking Monday that confluence isn’t in place yet and I don’t see much to stop it from being more of an inland event. Temps are also marginal so this would be a quick few inch or so hit of snow where it’s cold enough. But yes hopefully it can help suppress the flow enough for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Canadian really the only Monday holdout now. Still suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Ukie and Euro for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Still skeptical of this one due to antecedant airmass, changeover to any accumulating snow would be dependent on heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12z Euro backs off for the Monday event. Looks like mostly some light mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Still skeptical of this one due to antecedant airmass, changeover to any accumulating snow would be dependent on heavy rates. I don’t buy anyone getting 6” from it, to me maybe it’s a lucky 3-5” where banding can set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 both UKIE and Euro are suppressed for Monday. Light rain showers for the city, very little north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 12z Euro backs off for the Monday event. Looks like mostly some light mixed precip. Do you have next frames, doesn’t look suppressed here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Interesting Euro was first model to amp this up and now backed off but not that surprised either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: Do you have next frames, doesn’t look suppressed here... Its only about .25" liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Sound similar to NAM with 1-2/3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Its only about .25" liquid Some models have a very sharp cutoff, how close is significant precip to the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Best case scenario is 3-5" and models will struggle with due to the progressive pattern. They might not get it right until the storm is actually occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 49 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Interesting Euro was first model to amp this up and now backed off but not that surprised either. Its 06Z run started the trend. I would have to see the ensembles but this is the sort of system in this pattern I feel might juice more than Euro shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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