WestMichigan Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 When will this system finally be fully sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: When will this system finally be fully sampled? The upper low now in the SW was fully sampled at 12Z. The kicker and back side jet will be mostly onshore for the 00Z RAOBS this eve. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 APX just hoisted a WSW for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Super excited about the 1.5"* I'm going to get!** *of rain. **remark is sarcasm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1.85" final call of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 pathetic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 That is disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Is the 18z NAM a throw out run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, WI_SNOWSTORM said: Is the 18z NAM a throw out run? Throw them all out as far as I'm concerned. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 MKX's first call is 2-4". I think that's pretty accurate. I guess I can't complain too much, it's snow which is much needed right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Gonna go with 1-3" for here and the QC. Looks like quite a bit of rain to fall as well, perhaps a good inch. Euro wraps in some pretty nice deform bands during the day Sat, so it may look pretty legit out there for a time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 The latest HRRR is north and more robust with the snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 00z NWS Blend just loaded up. Looks a bit more amped for northern lower MI. Continue to show me in the solid 7”+ range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 00z HRRR and NAM are both north and snowier. Perhaps the full sampling, with wave #2 now onshore, has something to do with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 00z HRRR and NAM are both north and snowierYipes. Both those runs show presque isle county getting slammed with lake enhancement. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z HRRR and NAM are both north and snowier. Perhaps the full sampling, with wave #2 now onshore, has something to do with it. Like the track, toss the totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 15 hours ago, Baum said: pretty sure we're not going to know what's going to happen until it happens. same idea: THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW SATURDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LOW- LEVELS, ALLOWING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW FAST THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MARCH OCCURS, WITH SOME GUIDANCE HOLDING ON TO WARMER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, PRECIP RATE WILL LIKELY DICTATE PRECIP TYPE, WITH HEAVIER RATES IN A POSSIBLE AXIS OF MODERATE DEFORMATION PRECIP FAVORING ALL SNOW VS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN. SOME 00Z GUIDANCE (CMC, ECMWF) ARE SUGGESTING THIS POTENTIAL NORTH OF I-80 LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO, WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES ONLY LIMITED ACCUMULATING SNOW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE WI STATE LINE, NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS, INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO NORTHWEST OF AN AURORA TO GLENCOE LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Trend is my friend right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 10" of cement. Better than nothing I guess 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 12z HRRR coming in much more realistic with snow totals in S WI. Expecting about 3-5" here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Newest GFS run giving me some hope in Eastern WI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 We're underway here with our first 0.01" of rain, and 41 degrees. Looks like a steady cold rain through about 6-7am before a quick changeover to snow. Was thinking/hoping 1-3" but I think we'll do good if we can squeeze an inch out of this. At least we should get over the 1" seasonal hurdle with this. The Des Moines to Cedar Rapids corridor def has the hot hand, as many areas along that track will loft to over 10" for the season with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: We're underway here with our first 0.01" of rain, and 41 degrees. Looks like a steady cold rain through about 6-7am before a quick changeover to snow. Was thinking/hoping 1-3" but I think we'll do good if we can squeeze an inch out of this. At least we should get over the 1" seasonal hurdle with this. The Des Moines to Cedar Rapids corridor def has the hot hand, as many areas along that track will loft to over 10" for the season with this. I'm sticking with 3" here, which would put me at about 10" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: I'm sticking with 3" here, which would put me at about 10" for the season. Solid call. I'd hope for more since you should be in the heart of it tonight/tomorrow morning, but given how things have been going 3" would be just fine. Wouldn't be surprised if you, or somewhere close by got 5"+ though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Solid call. I'd hope for more since you should be in the heart of it tonight/tomorrow morning, but given how things have been going 3" would be just fine. Wouldn't be surprised if you, or somewhere close by got 5"+ though. The rain/snow line should be parked over the CR/IC area all night. A few miles could be the difference between 1 and 4 inches. The HRRR has no snow in Iowa City until morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 It would suck to be on Mt. Geos for this one. You could smell the snow while getting drenched with 33° and rain. I'll take my half inch of rain and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Final Euro - 10:1 totals are likely inflated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 ^ Just brutal for the QC/Chicago corridor. So close yet so far away lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Going with 1.5” in IC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Rain has switched over to snow in Madison, but no accumulation yet. We seem to be in a good spot for this storm so I'm going for 5" but holding out for possibly a bit higher if we get in some bands. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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