Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 0z Euro tonight still looks decently solid so figured why not. Surface temps look marginal during most of the event but potential for a fairly juiced system overall (2.00"+ QPF over Cook county this run) and an area of some good snow amounts on the NW side looks possible. System of interest is still well out over the northern PAC and wont come ashore till Thursday evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 this is intentional...isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Bring thread, bring needle...oh yeah if you have any cold air bring that too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 This morning's NAM is a closed, amped outlier, throwing snow way up into Minnesota and central/northern Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 12z NAM is amppped. We will have to see if this the NAM being the NAM or the start of a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 12z Nam is further north. Looks like a decent hit for Iowa with widespread 4-8". A bit too far north for Milwaukee though. However, with a strong HP across Quebec, I suspect models are downplaying surface temperatures. Wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain in some areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Looks like wagons north is the early theme today. RDPS is north along with the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 RDPS/RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 12Z GFS Nice storm for northwestern IL and SE Wisc 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 GFS crusher for southeast Wisconsin. A few models show a fairly steady solid snow band across the region. A couple others have only modest snow in Iowa, but it really ramps up to the east. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 12z Canadian has the same track and strength as the GFS, but it keeps southeast WI mostly rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 UK is stronger than last run as well, so models are amping back up after a steady southeast-and-weaker trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Not too surprised to see how things have trended for the Chicago area. Going to have to see significant changes tonight and tomorrow to have hope of getting decent snows into the heart of the metro and south metro. At this point, far north and northwest metro clearly has best shot. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 12z Euro is also more amped, but tracks farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 10:1 snow map clearly overdone (prolly cut it in half) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 10:1 snow map clearly overdone (prolly cut it in half)Here's the snow depth output, which might be more realistic in this setup with ratios likely to be sub 10:1 for much of the event. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 10:1 snow map clearly overdone (prolly cut it in half) My snow drought might continue. Ridiculous cutoff across my county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Here's the snow depth output, which might be more realistic in this setup with ratios likely to be sub 10:1 for much of the event. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk probably a p good first guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 If you're in northern DVN to northwest 1/3 or so of LOT to MKX, have to like where you sit at this point. For points south, if weaker and southeast trend from last winter resumes, not sure that really helps because the strong dynamics are an important factor in getting the potential 6"+ accums. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 damn it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Feel like mby or somewhere in the vicinity is going to be the cutoff, on a NE/SW orientation towards Waukegan; like what the euro is showing. I don’t remember the last time a rain to snow with garbage thermals really panned out, so I am leaning towards a white rain solution with maybe a dusting on the back end. A stronger system puts us solidly into rain, and like RC eluded, a weaker system takes away the dynamics and we get solutions similar to what the GFS was throwing out 5-6 runs ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Feel like mby or somewhere in the vicinity is going to be the cutoff, on a NE/SW orientation towards Waukegan; like what the euro is showing. I don’t remember the last time a rain to snow with garbage thermals really panned out, so I am leaning towards a white rain solution with maybe a dusting on the back end. A stronger system puts us solidly into rain, and like RC eluded, a weaker system takes away the dynamics and we get solutions similar to what the GFS was throwing out 5-6 runs ago. I'm pretty much on that line with you, I suspect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 NAM makes me want to vomit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 NAM says congrats MSP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 minute ago, WestMichigan said: NAM says congrats MSP. damn they're killing it up there! Considering driving up for this one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Just now, hlcater said: damn they're killing it up there! Considering driving up for this one. You're probably golden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 snippet from Chicago NWS The primary forecast challenges in the extended period continue to focus on the evolution of a storm system that is likely to impact the area late Friday through Saturday night. This storm system promises to bring a significant amount of precipitation to the area, but mainly with most of it falling as rain over central and eastern IL into northwestern IN. However, the potential exists for significant snow accumulations for at least parts of far northwestern into far north central IL and points northward into WI. Therefore, we could see a very sharp gradient between significant snow, and little to no snow somewhere right across northern IL, possible even nearing parts of the western/ northwestern suburbs of Chicago. Model and ensemble guidance is in decent agreement with surface low pressure taking shape over the southern Plains on Friday in response to the approach of the upper level low currently off the Baja of California coast. The exact track of the surface low is always key to determine where the accumulating snow will fall. Current indications continue to support a northeast track of the low from near STL early Saturday morning, to northwestern IN early Saturday afternoon. This track, would favor the main area of accumulating snowfall to be roughly across my northwestern areas, namely the Rockford metro area and possibly as far southeast as parts of the far northwestern Chicago suburbs. Mainly a rain event looks to be in store for much of the rest of the region. We will have to continue to watch this closely as even a minor shift in the expected track could change this scenario, so stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 49 minutes ago, hlcater said: damn they're killing it up there! Considering driving up for this one. My backyard is the red dot. Unless I’m missing something we are out of the game. Drive to Columbus Wisconsin or Baraboo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 GFS is a little faster and slightly SE of 12Z. Still a little warm here but baby steps. Now if it can continue a little more SE. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 18z GFS not as aggressive with snow as the 12z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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