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Wintry events possible I84 corridor down to near I80 next week (14th-18th)

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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billgwx
billgwx

Today's ECMWF H5 vort and sfc low track were a little too far north for my liking for NYC/Long Island to be all in, supporting being cautious in those areas as you point out. Meanwhile GFS was right d

wdrag
wdrag

Good Wednesday morning everyone,  No change for me in this 5 day period.   I think we could see a change develop in the way the GFS is modeling the 14th (a b luging weak wave of qpf. Ditto t

forkyfork
forkyfork

it relaxed the confluence a little. a few more runs and we should be golden for a nice soaking rain

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wdrag

wdrag

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5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Walt - may I ask why the GGEM OP has to be on board ? I remember many times in the past where the GGEM gives us a major snowstorm days out from the event and we end up with much less.....

Sure... I've not seen significant QPF events of more than ~1 tenth inch not have the GGEM op on board.  It doesn't necessarily have to be snow but we need it to give us decent qpf.    I am aware as one of our posters indicated, that GGEM and RGEM were furnace and wayyyy too low on the snow idea (dynamic cooling) of this past Saturday the 5th.  I also think the RGEM and GGEM, if I recollect correctly were more conservative regarding the western (extent) boundary of that event.

Lots of folks deride the GGEM and statistically (500MB stuff) it doesn't compare with the EC/UK/GFS in that order...  BUT it's a good basic starting point for me...  and fwiw... I've lost confidence during 2020 in the UK operational being of much consistently reliable value. 

To test this GGEM hypothesis... please send me examples as we move forward in these synoptic storms where the GGEM was never on board and we got our selves a decent qpf event.  That's the best way too refute my contention and reduce my use of the GGEM as a guide.  I've never taken the time to document with stat analysis, just like my experience with the BL wind on the FOUS needing to exceed 26 KT to consider and verify a wind advisory. 

So... we're well in advance of the likely Wednesday-early Thursday storm event... If the GGEM doesn't climb on board by Sunday, I'm going to be losing hope and will be reluctant to commit to a big event. 

Regarding the topic: I have no plans to change the topic... I still think Monday the 14th is decent chance for 0.10 qpf or greater at LGA, along with some snow on the northern fringe in our area and I kind of think it will be needed to help draw colder BL air southward in it's wake and set up for Wednesday. 

That was a good question: Hope this helps a little and it's worthy to check GGEM for our area.

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wdrag

wdrag

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4 hours ago, rossi said:

The title of this thread should be much further south for snow!

I'm waiting this out ...  no topic change til I'm sure Monday is a NO and Wednesday its big and south.  I try to frame these topics so they're reasonable ballpark and will be helpful.  If it looks like south will prevail, and/or many other guidance portend a big one, I'll reword the topic and try to be more accurate.  This was written Tuesday evening.  There is still time for many model adjustments and not necessarily favorable for us snow weenies.  

I just can't talk about this coming event as a done deal.  Still somewhat a thread the needle-lucky timing- and will it develop.  Tomorrow morning I'll use the 00z/11 guidance to reconsider everything. For now, best to be patient- wrap the holiday gifts, so you have more time closer to the event(s) to have fun with models and maybe shovel and appreciate those dendrites. 

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wdrag

wdrag

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6 minutes ago, romba said:

GGEM OP was on board for a big event until this afternoon.

That's correct... Let's presume it will be back by Saturday... if it's not, then I'll be concerned.  All these op runs are single members... even the EC op could lose it tomorrow but it might show the single member OP that represents only 10% of the ensemble.  

So--- my fingers are crossed.  I like the setup...  for a moderate event of 1/2-1" qpf... modeling can change my thinking but for now a conservative progressive approach. Any snow we can get now is nice to have. 

Most everyone on here is probably under age 60... I presume.  Modelers-researchers-computerization and platforms for data have provided us with modeling that can be pretty accurate to D5 and alert us to a potential event D6-10 with some reliability. Back in 1960-65 I was reading the Farmers Almanac, and local long rangers (Gordon Barnes)  for my hope... not a Weather "Bureau"  D5-7 forecast (as the NWS referenced back then).

Let's see what happens and keep the options open that there could be some sort of failure here.

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sferic

sferic

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22 minutes ago, wdrag said:

That's correct... Let's presume it will be back by Saturday... if it's not, then I'll be concerned.  All these op runs are single members... even the EC op could lose it tomorrow but it might show the single member OP that represents only 10% of the ensemble.  

So--- my fingers are crossed.  I like the setup...  for a moderate event of 1/2-1" qpf... modeling can change my thinking but for now a conservative progressive approach. Any snow we can get now is nice to have. 

Most everyone on here is probably under age 60... I presume.  Modelers-researchers-computerization and platforms for data have provided us with modeling that can be pretty accurate to D5 and alert us to a potential event D6-10 with some reliability. Back in 1960-65 I was reading the Farmers Almanac, and local long rangers (Gordon Barnes)  for my hope... not a Weather "Bureau"  D5-7 forecast (as the NWS referenced back then).

Let's see what happens and keep the options open that there could be some sort of failure here.

Ah, Gordon Barnes, legendary in NYC 1960's to early 1970's

I remember "Barnstorming" which ran on CBS Network radio

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wdrag

wdrag

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Just now, sferic said:

Ah, Gordon Barnes, legendary in NYC 1960's to early 1970's

I remember "Barnstorming" which ran on CBS Network radio

I used to listen to Don Kent-BZ,  WCAU had a good met team in Phlegms,  There was Denardo-McFarland in PIT,  and WTIC  Barbara Allen Buzz Bernard etc... they all helped get me psyched on events. WNYC used to have a 145PM radar report, right off the Weather Bureau Radar at Rockefeller Center. Anyway, better not digress any more. Gotta rest.

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sferic

sferic

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12 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I used to listen to Don Kent-BZ,  WCAU had a good met team in Phlegms,  There was Denardo-McFarland in PIT,  and WTIC  Barbara Allen Buzz Bernard etc... they all helped get me psyched on events. WNYC used to have a 145PM radar report, right off the Weather Bureau Radar at Rockefeller Center. Anyway, better not digress any more. Gotta rest.

Also WNYC had their 6:45PM radio broadcast from NWS

NYC names of mets from 60's NYC  Walter Vanis, Charlie Sykes.

On Feb 2nd 1969 when I was 10 my dad took me to 30 Rock, we walked up 1 flight of stairs  right into the NWS office and a wonderful met gave my dad and me a tour which I cherish to this day

 

A week later the Lindsey blizzard

My screename here " Sferic" by the way was a device used to triangulate lightning strikes back in the day; not sure if they are still used

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rossi

rossi

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I'm waiting this out ...  no topic change til I'm sure Monday is a NO and Wednesday its big and south.  I try to frame these topics so they're reasonable ballpark and will be helpful.  If it looks like south will prevail, and/or many other guidance portend a big one, I'll reword the topic and try to be more accurate.  This was written Tuesday evening.  There is still time for many model adjustments and not necessarily favorable for us snow weenies.  

I just can't talk about this coming event as a done deal.  Still somewhat a thread the needle-lucky timing- and will it develop.  Tomorrow morning I'll use the 00z/11 guidance to reconsider everything. For now, best to be patient- wrap the holiday gifts, so you have more time closer to the event(s) to have fun with models and maybe shovel and appreciate those dendrites. 

Thank you -Walt

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rclab

rclab

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25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you must be over 60 like a few of us here 

Some of us can add another decade above that. I remember the fun days with Tex and Uncle Weathbee,. I also remember the night Frank Field blew a snow forecast and the news crew pelted him with snowballs when he came on that night. Johnny Carson loved to use him in his monologue he would call Frank the crack NBC meteorologist who tonight, predicted lava coming out of the top of the Empire State Building. I remember Joe Bolton as an early TV weatherman using a grease pen. That was a bit before he became Officer Joe. As always ....

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nycwinter

nycwinter

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17 minutes ago, rclab said:

Some of us can add another decade above that. I remember the fun days with Tex and Uncle Weathbee,. I also remember the night Frank Field blew a snow forecast and the news crew pelted him with snowballs when he came on that night. Johnny Carson loved to use him in his monologue he would call Frank the crack NBC meteorologist who tonight, predicted lava coming out of the top of the Empire State Building. I remember Joe Bolton as an early TV weatherman using a grease pen. That was a bit before he became Officer Joe. As always ....

field is 97 still alive....

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