Wintry events possible I84 corridor down to near I80 next week (14th-18th)

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

12z cmc buries the I95 

Classic I-95 MECS on the CMC. Really cold surface temps too. 

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Major snowstorm on the CMC for the coast

[MJO812]

Cmc has heavy snow in the 20s for the coast.

[romba]

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc has heavy snow in the 20s for the coast.

[SI Mailman]

Philly ends up being the jackpot on that CMC run.

[SnowGoose69]

CMC also bumped pretty hard north Monday.  GFS did not really budge outside of noise.  As I said with Wednesday its truly a mix of a bunch of events.  I see some 2/4/95, some 12/21/09 and also some 2/13/14 in it

[Franklin0529]

What's the old adage? You gotta be able to smell the rain to get a monster snow storm?

[forkyfork]

it relaxed the confluence a little. a few more runs and we should be golden for a nice soaking rain

[RU848789]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

12z cmc buries the I95 

And it's in the 20s for the 95 corridor and NW of there with temps only getting to 32F at the immediate coast.  Would be nice to have enough cold air to not have to worry about p-type...

[forkyfork]

[Stormlover74]

Just now, David-LI said:

What's CMC verification 150 hours out?

Incoming IMBY posts

Its not 150 hours away

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

it relaxed the confluence a little. a few more runs and we should be golden for a nice soaking rain

I just think its more likely this thing goes out than cuts.  Even if it did "cut" there would probably be some sort of big snows on the front end, even to the coast because it won't be an amped/phased type system if it trends more in that direction.  Right now I feel Monday is way more likely to go NW than out and vice versa for Wednesday.

[MJO812]

Gefs

[jets]

Since when is the icon gospel. Good luck on the soaking rain forecast. This isn’t last year

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, jets said:

Since when is ICON. Good luck on the soaking rain forecast. This isn’t last year

The ICON often times does well at day 3-5 and sucks inside of that range.  Its really strange but it has sniffed out trends or storms before when other models did not seem them.  It might just be confirmation bias but the MA forum has mentioned the same thing

[wdrag]

Have seen 12z GEFS... same as 06z..half a foot+ southern CT to nw NJ...  also develops the 850 low a little sooner and a tad further south restricting the nrn extent of qpf to just n of I90.  Long ways to go... wont have it studied up til 330P and then will definitely separate this thread to the weak low risk northern fringe snow on Monday and good sized snow event for a portion of our forum.  Later... Walt

[MJO812]

Uncle

[uncle W]

Dec 13-14th 1966 had a storm with wet snow and rain...no accumulations near the coast but some inland...it came at the ao's lowest point of that winter...-4sd...the nao was slightly neg but rebounded to positive where it was most of the time...I thought 66-67 was a good analog for this year...one can only hope this winter is half as good as that winter was...

[uncle W]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uncle

what...

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, uncle W said:

what...

Ukie = Uncle

SNE slang

[wxman]

I know this sounds ridiculous (because it is) but over the years I've noticed a few things.  First, in the good winters it "just wants to snow."  This week's system was a good example.  In "bad years" this would have been a nonevent.  This year it snowed all day and put down a nice coating.  Maybe this is a good omen for next week, right up there with my observation that the best storms get the snow going quicker than anticipated...and the unforeseen delay in the start often spells doom.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, wxman said:

I know this sounds ridiculous (because it is) but over the years I've noticed a few things.  First, in the good winters it "just wants to snow."  This week's system was a good example.  In "bad years" this would have been a nonevent.  This year it snowed all day and put down a nice coating.  Maybe this is a good omen for next week, right up there with my observation that the best storms get the snow going quicker than anticipated...and the unforeseen delay in the start often spells doom.

Same thing winter 2010-11-every event found a way to overperform during that epic pattern

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Same thing winter 2010-11-every event found a way to overperform during that epic pattern

It helps when you have a strong blocking pattern in place (pacific or atlantic).

Blocking patterns give every shortwave an opportunity to overperform and turn into at least a minor event, there's generally a cold air supply around, and you have more wiggle room even when the setup isn't ideal.  

Blocking patterns can also last several weeks to months. 

[greenmtnwx]

So Forky going all rain for this one, we'll see how he verifies come mid-week.

 

[David-LI]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

it relaxed the confluence a little. a few more runs and we should be golden for a nice soaking rain

listen sir, you're respected in here but your rain forecast won't bring our hopes down. this is 2020, let us dream 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

listen sir, you're respected in here but your rain forecast won't bring our hopes down. this is 2020, let us dream 

would be nice to see some actual forecasting instead of trolling from a met

[David-LI]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

would be nice to see some actual forecasting instead of trolling from a met

There's always plenty of forecasting from mets, specially in the days closer to an event. 

[Snowlover11]

if forky gets this absolutely wrong hes gotta remove the tag for a week

[ForestHillWx]

Forky just tampers the weenies... I am one of them, so I appreciate the reality check.