Wintry events possible I84 corridor down to near I80 next week (14th-18th)

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, with the PNA not cooperating so well this could end up trying to run inland. Time for that to improve still though 

That’s why you need to root for the confluence to hold strong. The pac isn’t going to be textbook for this. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, snowman19 said:

This is not a SWFE setup. This is like the argument that it’s “impossible” for a low to cut over deep snowcover. If a shortwave is amped enough in the wrong spot, it will cut

I never said it was. My argument is that during SWFEs models frequently correct colder and adjust the low further south due to the strong high in front of it. 

I expect the same thing to happen here.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Allsnow said:

That’s why you need to root for the confluence to hold strong. The pac isn’t going to be textbook for this. 

The first wave will also impact the next storm.  So we more or less have to see what Monday does first

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wave 1 could be a sneaky snow event.

Models continue ticking north and there's a surprisingly high amount of precip with it despite it being a fast mover. 

One thing is almost for certain.  Don't expect the GFS to show squat with it til last minute.  I am sort of shocked its as far NW as it is with the system at the moment.  It'll also probably show it as an all rain event too if it does come far enough NW for precip here

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Haven’t been following this very closely yet but it wouldn’t surprise me if the second wave for Weds trended more amped due to the not great PNA. Gives the trough more room to amplify in the East and force a NW track. The blocking up north does force it to redevelop somewhere but hopefully it’s not when we’re already flooded in warm air. A primary that hangs on too long (never a problem here  ) also sends warm air aloft in which means a lot of sleet. Still long ways to go though. 

reminds me of a couple of storms in 07....

[RU848789]

Just my opinion, but I think we need two separate threads for the 14th and 16th potential events.  Way too many posts in this thread where it's difficult to tell which event someone is talking about.  

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I never said it was. My argument is that during SWFEs models frequently correct colder and adjust the low further south due to the strong high in front of it. 

I expect the same thing to happen here.

I remember this happened in Feb 2008 and we ended up getting 6-8 inches of snow.  That can happen in February though, it's more difficult to do in December

[SnowGoose69]

12Z ICON nudged north for Monday.  Still a miss but the bumps continue

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, with the PNA not cooperating so well this could end up trying to run inland. Time for that to improve still though 

I see a lot of 12/5 analogs in there and a big surprise to see Boxing Day in the mix too.  The 12/5/95 storm wasn't the big one that month though but the 12/5/03 event sure was.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, JoshSnow said:

Wave 1 isn’t going to be all rain it looks to be a miss entirely

that has happened quite often in the past.

[wdrag]

10 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Just my opinion, but I think we need two separate threads for the 14th and 16th potential events.  Way too many posts in this thread where it's difficult to tell which event someone is talking about.  

Understood...  I see your point.  Plan to get this done around 5P.  Thanks. 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I see a lot of 12/5 analogs in there and a big surprise to see Boxing Day in the mix too.  The 12/5/95 storm wasn't the big one that month though but the 12/5/03 event sure was.

It doesn't remind me of any one setup.  Its sort of a hybrid of a SWFE/Miller B to an extent.  There are some similarities to 2/4/95 but the air mass in place is way better.  There was no strong high to the north in that event.

[wdrag]

And so, for those who want an event Monday... I'm betting the 12z GGEM will be on aboard... 12z RGEM has qpf.  Unfortunately that model shows generally rain.  

 

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I see a lot of 12/5 analogs in there and a big surprise to see Boxing Day in the mix too.  The 12/5/95 storm wasn't the big one that month though but the 12/5/03 event sure was.

I dont recall anything happening on 12/5/95. It was 48 degrees with some light rain 

[Allsnow]

Confluence stronger this run on the gfs. Will be another big hit 

[NEG NAO]

[Brian5671]

heaviest precip offshore but that's not a bad place to be right now....

[forkyfork]

just need one more bump north on the euro for rain. plenty of time left

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

heaviest precip offshore but that's not a bad place to be right now....

rather have this then the 0Z Euro solution

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

just need one more bump north on the euro for rain. plenty of time left

Euro hugger ?

[NEG NAO]

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

just need one more bump north on the euro for rain. plenty of time left

Need confluence to hold strong or it’s umbrellas for all 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Need confluence to hold strong or it’s umbrellas for all 

Agree

Need the NAO to cooperate. Euro has an amped bias but if the NAO doesn't hold then its lights out.

[Allsnow]

[rclab]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

just need one more bump north on the euro for rain. plenty of time left

Forky would make a great motivational speaker for the Netherworld. As always ....

[romba]

0Z Ukie showed no snow for the city, LI, and immediately N and W of the city.

 

 

[Allsnow]

12z cmc buries the I95 

[MJO812]

Major snowstorm on the CMC for the coast

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Need confluence to hold strong or it’s umbrellas for all 

Agree with you. The threat is cut, not suppressed IMO

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree with you. The threat is cut, not suppressed IMO

Not with the 5050 low in place