Wintry events possible I84 corridor down to near I80 next week (14th-18th)

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Check out the temps on the cmc. Places are snowing in the teens.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Check out the temps on the cmc. Places are snowing in the teens.

 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Check out the temps on the cmc. Places are snowing in the teens.

I will believe it when I see it.........................But now the title of this thread has to be changed IMO.......should be just changed to 12/16/2020 Snow Storm Potential

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

 

I will believe it when I see it.........................But now the title of this thread has to be changed IMO.......

Agree 

Did you listen to Joe Cioffi this evening ? 

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree 

Did you listen to Joe Cioffi this evening ? 

Yes 

[MJO812]

0z CMC ensemble mean is northwest of the op run

[wizard021]

This is clearly a KU storm and likely a mecs. 12 to 18 inches of snow is the likely outcome here after the models stop trending. 

500 mb is very similar to the presidents day storm of 79.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

This is clearly a KU storm and likely a mecs. 12 to 18 inches of snow is the likely outcome here after the models stop trending. 

500 mb is very similar to the presidents day storm of 79.

Too early to talk about KUs

[SnoSki14]

Pretty solid stuff coming in. Ensembles looking really nice.

You might see models with a more offshore position for a bit but then they'll amp things up as we get closer like with the last coastal.

Luckily we have a much better airmass in place this time. 

[wizard021]

http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/cartes/ncep/amer/1969020812.gif

Mayor Lindsay storm , had a strong neg ao / nao as the midweek storm and the high is now being forecasted at 1035 mb, stronger. Its on. 

 

[wizard021]

 

[Intensewind002]

41 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

This is clearly a KU storm and likely a mecs. 12 to 18 inches of snow is the likely outcome here after the models stop trending. 

500 mb is very similar to the presidents day storm of 79.

Ill believe it when the warnings go up and okx forecasts those totals, until then it's still a dream for me

[wizard021]

1 minute ago, Intensewind002 said:

Ill believe it when the warnings go up and the flakes are actually falling, until then it's still a dream for me

The neg nao is trending stronger each run, allowing a stronger cold signal. Lack of a more prounced pna is not allowing the upper trough to close off, but as it, it should be a beautiful storm.  A first of many this season. But perhaps the most impactful. 

[Intensewind002]

1 minute ago, wizard021 said:

The neg nao is trending stronger each run, allowing a stronger cold signal. Lack of a more prounced pna is not allowing the upper trough to close off, but as it, it should be a beautiful storm.  A first of many this season. But perhaps the most impactful. 

I'm still excited, just a bit skeptical after the last couple winters. Hopefully it actually does become what the models are currently advertising and the positive trends continue

[Stormlover74]

Euro is warm 

[Nibor]

Euro is warm for coastal sections. Fair amount of sleet. Absolutely bombs out hr 144-150 drops 13 mbs. Interior does well.

[SI Mailman]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Euro is warm 

Rain/snow line is right on top of the city.  North and west burbs get crushed.  

[SnoSki14]

42 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Euro is warm for coastal sections. Fair amount of sleet. Absolutely bombs out hr 144-150 drops 13 mbs. Interior does well.

Good mix between the more offshore models and the more wound up Euro.

EPS still more relevant than OP runs though. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro is warm 

It is usually too amped at times

[wdrag]

00z/11 cycle impressions: Will post the main show first: Wednesday-early Thursday 16-17.

Caution: some models have had a southward trend. Something to think about. 

Continues to look good for a potential snow event.   Water equiv as per WPC... am thinking 0.5 to 1" is a good start.  Water temps in the 40s nearby LI will probably require an 850MB temp of -3 to -5C for snow not to change to rain in the +0C Boundary Layer for L:I (NYC too).  That's a caution for LI, especially south shore and eastern tip as well as NJ coast. 

00Z/11 ECMWF operational model pressure down to 984 MB is not likely.  Look for a more reasonable 995-1000MB low s of LI with a 1030-35MB high over Quebec. Very nice set up...potentially a 40 MB difference (possible 40kt easterly flow near Montauk?).  The 00z/11 ECMWF operational snowfall/depth has to be biased high because of the extreme with respect to multiple models and it's own EPS (which is closer to half foot or a bit more, along and n of I80).  

00z/11 52 member NAEFS looks very good but with variability on qpf. 

The 00z/11 GEFS 850 low is weaker and develops later but develops.  So it's game on (GGEM is back on board, more or less).  The question is where will the max axis be?  

The track of the 850MB Low is close to LI... which to me favors I84 or northward for max snow axis.  I think we need to be careful along the southern edge and there are still options for a further south track but for now...the WPC D6 probability of 3" or more of snow (1/4" or greater frozen water equivalent)  looks good (30-49%). You would think this is too low, but what that tells me, is that there is a lot of variability on placement of colocated cold enough temps for snow and the 1/4" qpf. It also was generated without the benefit of the 00z model cycle. 

Tides: could be minor flood event either Wednesday or Thursday morning as the tides are astronomically very high.  Duration of northeast flow, and pressure will determine. Fortunately...it looks like the worst of the inflow is at the lower high tide Wednesday evening with a wind turn to northerly probable Thursday morning. 

Meanwhile Monday the 14th: Don't toss this away.  EC is coming north and so while the GEFS is locked south of us,  the EC and 06z NAM suggests to me that there could be some snow in our forum Monday- minor and melting on roads except small chance of an SPS hazard income of the hills (Poconos -nw NJ?)

Friday the 18th: this possible event will not arrive the 18th - instead warm air advection---probably delayed til the weekend sometime.

Two graphics added:  WPC D6--please see legend for your area of interest and the 00z/11 GEFS prob for 1" of snow Wednesday-early Thu.   551A

[wdrag]

8 hours ago, sferic said:

Also WNYC had their 6:45PM radio broadcast from NWS

NYC names of mets from 60's NYC  Walter Vanis, Charlie Sykes.

On Feb 2nd 1969 when I was 10 my dad took me to 30 Rock, we walked up 1 flight of stairs  right into the NWS office and a wonderful met gave my dad and me a tour which I cherish to this day

 

A week later the Lindsey blizzard

My screename here " Sferic" by the way was a device used to triangulate lightning strikes back in the day; not sure if they are still used

Sferics: I remember interviewing with a Cincinnati private met around summer 1980 talking about the lightning triangulation., 

Yes..I remember both NYC names.   Yes.... on 30 Rock--the gold walls... and back around 1962-63, US Weather Bureau Chief Gerald Shak (recently passed) allowed an in-person interview for my ~ 7th grade Elementary School science class in his office. Was pretty cool- it might have been there that I received copies of Weatherwise that highlighted the great Dec 1960, and Jan 1961 snowstorms (Kennedy Inaugural etc).

[Ericjcrash]

In queens for work, heaviest frost I've seen here in a while...

[Dan76]

Big temp spread from south shore to middle of island   Long Beach 45 E meadow 27

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Big temp spread from south shore to middle of island   Long Beach 45 E meadow 27

thats awesome I wonder what the temp is at- Muttontown (coldest place in Nassau) and FOK (coldest place on Long Island) as well as MJX (pine barrens of NJ) and JFK and MVY (pine barrens of NE)

 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Sferics: I remember interviewing with a Cincinnati private met around summer 1980 talking about the lightning triangulation., 

Yes..I remember both NYC names.   Yes.... on 30 Rock--the gold walls... and back around 1962-63, US Weather Bureau Chief Gerald Shak (recently passed) allowed an in-person interview for my ~ 7th grade Elementary School science class in his office. Was pretty cool- it might have been there that I received copies of Weatherwise that highlighted the great Dec 1960, and Jan 1961 snowstorms (Kennedy Inaugural etc).

and Feb 1961!  one of the greatest winter precip storms of all time (right behind Feb 1922 and just ahead of Jan 2016)

We need to go back and retroactively start naming these so that they can be catalogued properly (especially when there is more than one of these in a month)

 

[MJO812]

Euro has snow for us with wave 1. Has trended further north.

[NEG NAO]

49 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

This winter may end up very cold and snowy. The ground has gotten very cold and it’s only going to get colder. I said it early November the timeframe to look for was November 29th until late December!

Good Luckas for 12/16 event I would be concerned about much accumulating snow south of I78 - unless the EURO starts trending south - still a wide range of solutions from the wound up warm 0Z EURO OP to the 0Z very cold Canadian OP............

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

thats awesome I wonder what the temp is at- Muttontown (coldest place in Nassau) and FOK (coldest place on Long Island) as well as MJX (pine barrens of NJ) and JFK and MVY (pine barrens of NE)

 

Only 26.7 in Muttontown this morning. 27.1 in Syosset.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

thats awesome I wonder what the temp is at- Muttontown (coldest place in Nassau) and FOK (coldest place on Long Island) as well as MJX (pine barrens of NJ) and JFK and MVY (pine barrens of NE)

 

Up this way including NE Nassau it’s in the upper 20s. Slight SW wind keeping it much warmer right on the S Shore. 

[uncle W]

30 this morning...40 in NYC...

[NEG NAO]