Wintry events possible I84 corridor down to near I80 next week (14th-18th)

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, romba said:

Canadian says No

Good spot 

[David-LI]

Not getting my hopes up for now, specially on 150+ hr GFS. 

[NJsnow89]

We have been burned many times. Not getting my hopes up at all until we are 48 hours away. 

[Eduardo]

GFS's evolution reminds me a bit of Dec. 2009.  Didn't we get some eleventh-hour PNA love to make that one happen too?

[NEG NAO]

24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

If you don’t have the high we have a rainstorm...that simple 

or you can have a complete miss

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

If you don’t have the high we have a rainstorm...that simple 

Yep, if the high and the +PNA spike and -NAO block are all real, then it’s a snowstorm.....a major one....if not, grab the umbrella even for the north and west suburbs in the metro area...

[MJO812]

Gefs

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep, if the high and the +PNA spike and -NAO block are all real, then it’s a snowstorm.....a major one....if not, grab the umbrella even for the north and west suburbs in the metro area...

This basically goes for any coastal snowstorm lol

[MJO812]

Parade of storms on the gfs with cold air nearby 

Nice to see

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This basically goes for any coastal snowstorm lol

Not really lol

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Not really

Yes especially near the coast

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes especially near the coast

I was joking sheesh

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, SnowLover22 said:

 

all set for winter if that happened lol

It only takes one big one to make seasonal climo snow for these parts.  If that Kuchie is right then I will be half way there for my local HPN.  It will be fun to track.

[SnoSki14]

Setup is pretty good for a classic miller B type storm. GEFS agree with OP. 

I wouldn't sweat too much about the run to run changes as long as the core pattern remains in place. 

Wave one still worth watching too for a light event.

[DTWXRISK]

i am    Bullish on this one  for NYC   North NJ   interior se  NY...  not sure about LI

[Allsnow]

Euro diving in more northern stream energy for Monday. 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro diving in more northern stream energy for Monday. 

Slides out to sea but was definitely further north. We shall see how this effects mid week 

[Allsnow]

Incredible look at h5 on the euro for the mid week system 

[NEG NAO]

[NEG NAO]

[Allsnow]

[Allsnow]

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Great agreement this far out. 

H5 looks great at this range

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Allsnow said:

classic December snowstorm - GFS and Euro VS. CMC so far

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Great agreement this far out. 

H5 looks great at this range

I get nervous when it's good at 7 days out.  So much can and will change.  I hope we see a couple of OTS runs-that always bodes well for the inevitable correction N and W....

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I get nervous when it's good at 7 days out.  So much can and will change.  I hope we see a couple of OTS runs-that always bodes well for the inevitable correction N and W....

Agree

All the big ones shifted offshore days before the event.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

classic December snowstorm - GFS and Euro VS. CMC so far

Nope

Geps is with the euro.and gfs and gefs

[CIK62]

Now the GFS has its own nervous breakdown  at 19"  and gets a private room next to the EURO at 17".        I  hope therapies do not work before  the 18th.   Lol.

[Neblizzard]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Incredible look at h5 on the euro for the mid week system 

50/50 low and -NAO are your friend so far.  Hopefully that look holds.  I’ve been saying getting the SV to weaken enough is our best shot at fending off this La Niña.  We’ll see...

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

50/50 low and -NAO are your friend so far.  Hopefully that look holds.  I’ve been saying getting the SV to weaken enough is our best shot at fending off this La Niña.  We’ll see...

Agree. It seems like the long range stuff is just defaulting Niña pattern but picking up on weakening vortex in the medium range.