Wintry events possible I84 corridor down to near I80 next week (14th-18th)

[wdrag]

This posts due to forum interest in wintry weather, but with uncertainty on evolution of precipitation events and how far south ice or snow can develop (even a low chance NYC).

Marginal thermal profiles may limit snow or ice to I84 northward but may be worth monitoring for a minor or moderate wintry weather event I84.

The NAEFS pattern along with various models,  though cyclically inconsistent, suggest the possibility that the latter part of the Mondays(14th)  precipitation could be a little ice or even end as snow along the I84 corridor.  A wintry event possibility. 

Evolution thereafter is uncertain but it appears there will be some sort of decent storm system heading into the northeast USA which has a chance to involve snow-ice, at least along the I84 corridor. It's possible short wave interactions will force a northward buckle of the thicknesses and result in all rain but for now, I think there is enough model guidance to open the door for some wintry weather, mainly I84, sometime between 16th-18th.   

Confidence for one or two precipitation events in that 5 day period is above average, and a good sign is the constancy of a decently strong upper level jet just to our south (LF quad= exit region), frequently with the jet core near VA. 

Normal High Low at CP next week is ~43-32.  

Added two graphics: the WPC midday Tuesday (8th)  chance of of more than 1/4" frozen water equivalent Monday the 14th. and the CPC D6-10 outlook for the 14th-18th. 

As we draw closer, it may be that we'll delete some of this and refocus the topic title- for now, this should hold us. Let's see if we can get a little winter in our area next week.

[wdrag]

Good Wednesday morning everyone,  No change for me in this 5 day period.  

I think we could see a change develop in the way the GFS is modeling the 14th (a b luging weak wave of qpf.

Ditto the 16th-17th which looks to me cold enough for snow or ice, even down to NNJ/NYC- BUT, I'm not jumping the gun on this since the NAEFS isn't showing much qpf-development. If....and when its does, the snow-rain thickness fields will adjust a  bit tighter-warmer. Still... to me it's a 5 day period of interest. Take whatever we can get.

Am not looking beyond the 18th, until we know wintery weather does not occur as topic'd. 

[White Gorilla]

Love your updates.  Thank you!!! 

[NEG NAO]

Is this possible Walt ?

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Is this possible Walt ?

Geps, gefs has a signal along with the icon but its warm on the icon.

[MJO812]

Eps on board

[Edubbs83]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps on board

Is euro / eps now available for free? Thought I heard that. And if so anyone know best place to find. Thanks. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Edubbs83 said:

Is euro / eps now available for free? Thought I heard that. And if so anyone know best place to find. Thanks. 

I still get my info from  Stormvista

[NEG NAO]

0Z Euro looks similar to the 12Z GEM strong enough anchored high to the north and off coast track and its only about a week away - just need run to run continuity to develop I also like that High near Idaho /Montana border 

[wdrag]

I just checked the 12z/9 NAEFS... it's favorable for a light wintry weather event here, around Thursday the 17th. Plentyyyyy of time for things to go wrong or,    get heavier. I am always keeping in mind the mild base state for our winter and many long rangers conservative snow forecast for this winter. Nevertheless, still something to watch for during this 5 day period and make the most of the marginal opportunities. 

 

[NEG NAO]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was the 0z run. Plenty of spread between the 12z OP and ENS. Maybe the OP will break closer to the EPS at 0z. The ENS were weaker with the low in the GL than the 12 OP.  So the ENS had more of a miller b look.

 

 

changed it to 0Z as I stated there is no run to run continuity developing yet so each run has been different .....can't take it seriously yet

[MJO812]

Big rainstorm for next week but the storm signal continues on the gfs.  Good track.

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Big rainstorm for next week but the storm signal continues on the gfs.  Good track.

great track but same as last week no cold air

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

great track but same as last week no cold air

Yep the stupid low in the lakes ruin it.

[wdrag]

I don't think you need as much cold air with respect to normal anymore.  I am definitely interested in the 14th (weak wave of precip) and something more substantive 16-17 (wintry mix)... and with blocking in Greenland modeled by both the GEFS-EPS for the foreseeable 16 days... rainstorms are not a constant lock.Even seasonable temps give us a bit of a chance. 

 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I don't think you need as much cold air with respect to normal anymore.  I am definitely interested in the 14th (weak wave of precip) and something more substantive 16-17 (wintry mix)... and with blocking in Greenland modeled by both the GEFS-EPS for the foreseeable 16 days... rainstorms are not a constant lock.Even seasonable temps give us a bit of a chance. 

 

Timing issues

Gfs is alot later than the other models

 

Blocking keeps showing up next week and beyond

[wdrag]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Timing issues

Gfs is alot later than the other models

 

Blocking keeps showing up next week and beyond

Timing timing timing...  I'm no long ranger - no skill. I do look at basic (non MJO) patterns and it seems like we're running a bit different than Dec 2019. 

[hazwoper]

I’d think based on climo a bombing low right on coast like the GFS shows would create its own cold. 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

I’d think based on climo a bombing low right on coast like the GFS shows would create its own cold. 

need the wind direction to not come off the water - (a east, south  or southeast direction) water temps are still in the low to mid 50s. 

[hazwoper]

20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

need the wind direction to not come off the water - (a east, south  or southeast direction) water temps are still in the low to mid 50s. 

True but no snow even on the back end further west on that depiction?  

[MJO812]

18z eps earlier threat should still be watched 

[Franklin0529]

Yay. More rain 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yay. More rain 

Uh?

[Franklin0529]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh?

No cold air. If anything will be a repeat of the weekend storm

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

No cold air. If anything will be a repeat of the weekend storm

Based off what ?

[MJO812]

Why did Rjay weenie me ?

[rclab]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why did Rjay weenie me ?

Anthony, a weenie reaction to a super weenie is a compliment. As always .....

[hazwoper]

0Z GFS gets closer with snow on western side.  The fact the low rises from well off of VA Beach to straight up the Hudson seems strange.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

0Z GFS gets closer with snow on western side.  The fact the low rises from well off of VA Beach to straight up the Hudson seems strange.

Cmc is all rain for midweek. Long ways to go .

[Franklin0529]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Based off what ?

Where is the cold air coming from? A system that wound up that close is all rain. Except up in NE